The Technology Development Model
(SUMMARY)
- Technology is about producing more output with less input. When focusing on “working people”, technology has evolved to reduce the level of control by humans. In other words, technology “allow humans to slack off more” and it is expected to continue to evolve in the same vector in the future.
- The level of human control will be reduced through two drivers: (1) the spread of new “mechanisms” and (2) the improvement of strength in those mechanisms. (1) So far, new mechanisms have spread in the order of tools → machines → computation. (2) As an example of strength improvement, the mechanism of “machine” has been strengthened by the change of power source from natural energy sources such as water power and wind power → steam engine → internal combustion engine.
- The new mechanism spreads in a way that it is added on top of the old mechanism, while being piled up like a stratum (“multilayering of the mechanism”). New mechanics tend to merge the groups of old technologies (fusion of groups of technologies). The famous phrase “Software is eating the world” is an easy-to-understand expression of how the dominant modern mechanism of “computation” is merging with groups of traditional technologies.
- For the time being, “computation” rules the world. Quantum computing, which its R&D began around 1980–1990, could lead to an industrial revolution that will overwhelmingly augment by becoming widespread of “computation” in society in 2050–2060.
1. The basic trend is to reduce human control
Counting from the Stone Age, humans have continued to develop “technology” in a broad sense, for thousands of years. From stone tools to quantum computing, technologies have taken many forms, but their evolutionary vectors have remained consistent. Efficiency has increased in the sense of “generating more output with less input” (for example, efficiency in converting energy into power), but if we focus on “tasks done by humans”, technology has evolved in the direction of reducing human “control”. To put it plainly, technology is evolving so that humans can slack off more” Reducing “control” here means obtaining more output with less involvement, such as reducing human input and increasing output (including yield improvement).
Take the example of civil engineering works. Ironware such as a shovel must be manipulated (utilized) while being held by a human, in other words, they must be controlled by continuously applying human force. A little bit of technological progress has reduced the level of human control required when wheels were invented and the plow being pulled by oxen, or a tractor is used. Recently, BUILT ROBOTICS, for example, has developed and provided solutions that allow construction machinery to operate autonomously, which is expected to further reduce the level of control required of humans.
2. Technological development = Qualitative change and Strength improvement
The level of human control can be abstracted as a gradual reduction through two drivers: (1) the diffusion of new technological mechanisms and (2) the improvement of technology due to these mechanisms. In the example of “ironware”, “car”, and “computer” mentioned above, this three-stage arrangement corresponds to the spread of “new mechanisms” that occurred in the past (and the reduction in the level of human control that accompanies it).
For example, humans succeeded in improving the efficiency of hunting and agricultural tasks, which were primitively performed by hand, by utilizing “tools” such as stone tools ((1) spread of new mechanisms). And in the category of “tools” as a mechanism, the strength of the tools themselves increased as stone tools evolved into bronze and iron tools ((2) improvement of strength by the same mechanism). Even if the same mechanism is used, the level of control required of humans decreases dramatically as the strength of the mechanism increases.
After that, in addition to “tools”, new mechanisms called “machines” (for example, carriages) spread ((1) Spread of new mechanisms). The mechanism of “machine” (although it is a tautology) realized “initial automation” of so-called mechanism. Although it is very difficult to draw a line between “tools” and “machines”, but in this article, we define “machines” as devices in which multiple parts move in a correlated manner. A device that has multiple parts but do not move relative to each other and move in a complex manner under human control (for example, scissors) is classified as “a tool”.
“Machinery” was also initially operated manually, but natural energy sources such as water power and wind power came to be used, and eventually steam engines and internal combustion engines were used, and the strength of “machinery” was increased ((2) strength improvement in the same mechanism). The so-called the First Industrial Revolution (steam engine) and the Second Industrial Revolution (internal combustion engine) can be summarized as a revolution of strength in the mechanism of “machinery”. Spinning machines, for example, were initially manual, but later used hydraulic power, which was an external power source, and then evolved to use steam engines, increasing their output.
After that, in addition to “tools” and “machinery”, a new mechanism called “computing” spread throughout the world. This is the so-called information revolution ((1) the spread of new technological mechanisms). Fully electronic computing devices appeared in the 1940s, and so-called computers appeared around 1950. After that, computing power increased exponentially due to Moore’s law (and mankind’s efforts to realize it). Along with this, the level of automation and autonomy in task processing has risen dramatically, and the miniaturization of computers has also progressed. However, the simple calculations that were processed by early computers and AI, whose practical application is rapidly progressing in recent years, have undergone major breakthroughs such as the development of new frameworks, but the logical structure is the same. In short, it is based on a mechanism called “computing” that is reduced to a digital processing of “0 and 1”.
When chess master Garry Kasparov lost to the chess AI Deep Blue, he said, “I was surprised to learn that I had a plan and understood the essence of each move I made”. Yes, but again, Deep Blue’s logical structure was essentially no different from the programs of the 1960s. In other words, even if the mechanism is the same, by improving the strength, it is possible to bring about qualitative changes for humans ((2) strength improvement in the same mechanism).
Needless to say, the mechanism that dominates the world today is computation. Its intensity is increasing day by day, and as a result, discontinuous changes for humans are taking place one after another.
3. Multi-layer and fusion of mechanisms
New mechanisms do not appear suddenly one day. They are gradually improved and put into practical use. Also, even if a new mechanism appears, the technology group based on the old mechanism will not be buried, but will be piled up like a stratum (multi-layered mechanism). Even today, we brush our teeth (the “tool” mechanism), commute by train (the “machine” mechanism), and work at our computers at workplace (the “computing” mechanism).
As people involved in business and management, we should keep in mind that new mechanisms will be integrated into products based on old mechanisms (fusion of mechanisms). For example, since the advent of “machine”, tools have been mechanized (saws have become electric). Also, since “computation” appeared, “tools” and “machines” have been digitized and internetized (most film cameras have been replaced by digital cameras).
A software program is nothing more than a set of computational instructions to a computer, and the famous phrase “Software is eating the world” is nothing more than a simple expression of how the dominant mechanism of our time, “computation,” is merging with the old group of mechanisms.
Thinking in this way, so-called major companies that have been in business for many years can realize innovation by themselves through the approach of fusing new mechanisms with products and solutions based on traditional technologies that they are good at. It would not be a good idea to throw away the group of technologies that we have accumulated know-how over many years and work only on technologies based on new mechanisms.
4. The speed of technology diffusion
“Computation”, which appeared in the 1940s, still reigns as a dominant mechanism in the world today, but how long it will continue?
It took at least several thousand years from the advent of the so-called “machine” (it is difficult to pinpoint that period exactly) to the advent of “computation”. If this interval continues, it is possible to estimate that it will still be thousands of years before the next dominant technology begins to spread in earnest.
On the other hand, the so-called industrial revolution that improved the strength of “machinery” includes the steam revolution around 1770–1780 and the internal combustion engine revolution around 1870, and these occurred about 100 years interval. Also, although it may be a coincidence, the information revolution (computer revolution) occurred about 100 years later.
If there is a pattern of accelerated spread of specific mechanisms or strengthening of specific mechanisms in units of about 100 years, then around 2070, the strength of “computation” might be dramatically improved. In this regard, the mechanism of the Newcomen steam engine itself is said to have been invented around 1710 and put into practical use by Watt around 1780. In this case, about 70 years have passed since the invention of a primitive mechanism. From this analogy, quantum computing, which began its R&D from around 1980 to 1990, may start its full-scale popularization and lead to an overwhelming increase in “computation” from 2050 to 2060.
5. The Next Mechanism
Assuming that “computation” will continue to be the dominant mechanism for the time being, what will be the next new mechanism that will change the world?
As mentioned above, the technology development model is to reduce the level of control by humans, but figuratively speaking, “tools” reinforce the limbs themselves, “machines” reinforce the limbs, and “computation” reinforced human information processing ability. Given that technology has been reinforcing human beings from the outer edge to the core, the next reinforcement frontier is related to unconsciousness and emotions, and the new mechanism for that is “biochemistry.”
It is only a matter of time before artificial general intelligence (AGI), which supports human beings, will improve the strength of “computation”. “If you give them rough instructions, they’ll get the job done,” such technology will make the world more convenient.
I think that the level of human control will drop beyond this when we achieve a state where “it has already been realized if you think about it in your head” or “it has already been realized without even thinking about it”. This is what the SINIC theory calls “biological control technology” (control technology that perceives the state of the body and society and promotes and supports optimal adaptation to the whole organism and the environment), and “psycho-biotechnology” (human mind and body control technology). It may be a technology that improves the joy of living by working on and utilizing the mechanism of autonomy).
To do so, we will need an approach that fuses biological information (the body’s electrical signals, neurotransmitters, and hormones) with “computation,” “machines,” and “tools.” We are already making steady progress in our efforts to develop a Brain Machine Interface, but I believe that lighter approaches, such as solutions that utilize vital data, will emerge in the future.
If a technology is established that can monitor and even control unconsciousness and emotions, it will be difficult to understand how free will is perceived, what privacy is, what governance should be, and how it should be. We must answer ethical, political, and legal philosophical questions such as “To whom does power belong?”. It will be necessary to face the world view depicted in science fiction movies such as “Minority Report” and “Matrix”.
