It has worsened, or to be more technically correct; nominal non oil GDP is growing faster than nominal non oil FG tax revenue.
The NBS published backcasted rebased GDP numbers to 2011 so the numbers are all based on rebased GDP
We actually have maybe ten ports in Nigeria. But a lot of the ports outside Lagos can’t handle large vessels because of the depth issue. The ports in PH and Warri are so far inland that dredging up to them will be a herculean task and you have to wonder if its value for money.
You are right. My piece was mainly just to spit out the data on geography. Of course once you add other economic and political considerations then the equation changes. For instance, the depth in Douala is probably similar to the Calabar but they’re not shipping all their stuff through Lagos.
A lot of people are relaying this “We are making progress in rice production” line but its not showing up in the data. Not in FAO production data. Not in USDA data. Not in NBS GDP crop production data. Maybe it will show up as new data comes online but I am skeptical.
You are partially right, although I wonder if causality goes the other way. Have we organized a highly PMS dependent society because we have been “coddled” and spoon fed with cheap fuel? I think the okadas, and fuel guzzling generators are a symptom of the cheap fuel problem. It is no surprise that the explosion in alternative energy and inverters…
On 1) It doesn’t really make a difference. What matters is how much PMS we import not who imports it. In this case, because we import via swaps, its the lost FX inflow that we should look at. Although, yes some of the excesses have probably been cut out but we can’t be sure due to the opacity.