Part 1 of the “5% to Ukraine” opinion piece
Why the War in Ukraine is Important to Norway and the world
How Ukraine losing shatters the democratic future
Part of the 5% to Ukraine opinion piece. The original Norwegian text was written to implore the people of Norway to invest 5% of our sovereign wealth fund in a Ukrainian victory and the future of Europe. It has been translated into English for a wider audience.
The war in Ukraine is important, because its outcome will direct impact the security, economy, and stability of democracies in the Western world. It is important because our response to this tipping point in history will define your generation for the future.
The longstanding peace in Norway has left us bereft of the capability to understand how terrible the war in Ukraine is. It becomes foolish for us to even try, but let us nevertheless make an attempt.
In August 2023, it was estimated that the Ukrainian army had 190,000 dead and wounded. This number is now almost a year old, and does not include civilian casualties, so let’s raise it to a minimum of 250,000.
Let’s attempt to compare this with the worst experience Norway suffered in recent decades, the terrorist attacks in 2011, where 77 lives were taken from us and over 320 were injured. With all due respect to the survivors and bereaved of the terrorist attacks, the next three paragraphs may be difficult for you to read.
Try to recollect the pain Norway experienced in 2011. Close your eyes and think about the uncertainty, fear, frustration, and anger that you, your family, and your friends felt. The injustice we all felt. Think about what those, or you, who experienced the attacks went through. Think about how this has forever affected their lives, and those of the bereaved.
Now try to imagine living through 630 such terrorist attacks. Try to imagine living in a country where attacks of the same magnitude continues to be carried out with less than 48 hours between them.
Think about how you would feel, if you and your family had to seek shelter from bombs on a daily basis. Think about the experience of being in a trench where drones and grenades explode all around you. Think about having to flee your country and become a refugee. Think about the experience of the over 19,500 children who have been kidnapped by Russia, and the families who have lost them. Try to imagine the betrayal Ukrainians feel when the West, who is economically superior to Russia, chooses not to give them the support they need to win the war Russia started.
What Ukrainians are going through is so terrible that it becomes incomprehensible. It is easy to forget that this is the daily life of Ukrainians.
The current situation should be reason enough to help Ukraine. But perhaps the West’s lack of action can be attributed to a failure in our ability to imagine a future where Russia wins. A future much worse than the world we live in today.
Putin has said that Russia will not give up until they have defeated Ukraine. Let us take a look at what it might mean, if we let this scenario play out.
In the short term
Hundreds of thousands more lives, both military and civilian, will be lost as Ukraine attempts to hold out against the Russians’ superior firepower. As happened previously in the war, civilians are killed, tortured, and raped by Russian forces, in what many Western experts will come to define as a genocide. Even more children are kidnapped from their Ukrainian parents, to be raised in Russia.
A new wave of refugees, consisting of millions of Ukrainians, washes over Europe. Many of those fleeing are former soldiers, who will require years of medical and psychological follow ups.
Of the six million Ukrainians who fled at the start of the war, almost none will return to their homeland. This includes the 65,000 who have already arrived in Norway (projected to be 100,000 by the end of the year).
Norway’s estimate for the costs of accommodating Ukrainian refugees will be shattered (the estimate was 31.4 billion kroner for 2024). Due to the mental strain the new Ukrainian refugees have been under, they will need more help than today’s refugees, increasing the already substantial costs for Norway.
Unless we want to ruin our identities, Norway and the other European nations must help future Ukrainian refugees. However, we must understand that this support has a cost associated with it. A cost that could be avoided if we help Ukraine win the war.
In the longer term — and this naturally becomes more speculative
Putin’s Russia gains over 30 million new inhabitants. By forcing Ukrainian men into Russian military service, as they’ve already done in the occupied Ukrainian territories, Russia incorporates the second-largest army in Europe (Ukraine’s) into the largest (their own). The Russian army establishes itself as not only the the largest, but also the most experienced in Europe.
Russia takes over the new defense industry Ukraine has established during the war, boosting their existing military production capabilities. This increases their already significant drone production, and drones become standard equipment for all elements of the Russian army.
European countries are forced to increase their defense spending to more than during the Cold War to safeguard against the threat from Russia. Former Soviet states, which are outside of NATO, must prepare for the possibility that they may be the next target of Russian aggression.
Ukrainian culture and history are actively suppressed, museums are plundered, and schools are required to teach anti-Ukrainian propaganda. The Ukrainian people live in fear under a dictator who rules them with an iron fist, where the police and military brutally crack down on any whisper of opposition.
Ukraine’s loss is a demoralising defeat for the West, and especially Europe. Over the next years we see capital flight from Europe, as investors move their assets to safer areas. Europe’s economy continues to struggle. Increased polarisation between world powers leads to more fear in the markets, which eventually leads to a larger global recession. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund loses up to 30% of its value (based on Norges Bank’s stress test under global polarisation).
Russia conquers what might be described as the best farmland in Europe, which millions of people depend on for food, and continues to use food security and hunger politically. Russia takes over large oil, gas, and coal deposits, gaining even more power in the global energy market. They also take over Ukraine’s vast mineral resources, including rare earth metals, and their political use of these resources delays the green transition. As a result, the prices of food and energy generally increase. Many millions of people, especially in Africa, are affected by hunger and many thousands die.
The imperialistic mindset in Russia gets a boost, while their propaganda machine milks the victory over the West for all it is worth. Putin’s power in Russia is absolute, and anyone who speaks out against him is imprisoned — or accidentally fall out of windows. The narrative of the West as the great enemy becomes ingrained in the very soul of Russians. The Russian school system continues the militarization of a new generation, raised with a distorted worldview where Russia is under attack from the West. Suppression of minority groups, LGBTQ, human rights organizations, and anyone who does not follow the distorted Russian ideal increases.
Russia significantly increases the existing shadow war against Europe. This includes propaganda, sabotage, assassinations, targeting of foreign politicians, and attacks on energy infrastructure, military bases, and transportation. Leaders of some European countries continue their support for Russia with more strength than before, emboldened by the West’s defeat.
The cost of the war, and of rebuilding of Ukraine, comes over Russia. Putin is aware that his last opportunity to reestablish the Russian empire is now — before the Russian economy, morale, and demographics make it impossible. The threat to Russia’s neighboring countries increases, both in Europe and beyond.
Outside of Europe
China might see Ukraine’s defeat as a sign of weakness in NATO and the US, emboldening it to attack Taiwan. If this happens, Europe’s most important ally, the US, will be occupied in the Pacific.
A Russian victory is a defeat for NATO as an organization, and thus also for the US. Donald Trump, who is now a presidential candidate in the November election, likes“winning.” He has already said he will not protect NATO countries that haven’t spent enough of their budget on defense. Instead, he will encourage Putin to “do whatever the hell you want.” There is a possibility that the US will leave the alliance under Trump.
We must recognize that there is an element of uncertainty about NATO’s future. It is not 100% guaranteed that the US will come to Europe’s aid in the event of a future Russian attack.
If the US leaves the alliance, and Russia starts offering security guarantees to individual countries, we might see a collapse where several NATO allies are tempted to abandon the sinking ship. Any remaining members are also likely to become more cautious. Article 5 of the NATO treaty states that each NATO country shall assist the country that is attacked with “such action as it deems necessary.” This can involve armed forces, but it doesn’t have to.
In 1994, the world had one of its greatest victories in the fight against nuclear proliferation. Ukraine, which had the third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world, signed the Budapest Memorandum, where the USA, Russia, and the UK guaranteed that threats, military force, or economic coercion would never be used against Ukraine, if they gave up the nuclear weapons they had inherited from the Soviet Union.
If Ukraine loses the war, it will not only make clear to the world how security guarantees from the West are worthless — it also demonstrates to smaller nations how the Budapest Memorandum betrayed Ukraine. They will learn a dangerous lesson: that a small nation, in conflict with a large nation, can only ensure its sovereignty if it has nuclear weapons.
It is therefore likely that a world where Ukraine loses, will be a more nuclear world than the one we inhabit today.
In Conclusion
When they attacked Ukraine, Russia revealed itself as an existential threat, not only to Ukraine, but to all its neighboring countries. They have demonstrated how European countries must either maintain the ability to defend themselves, or expose themselves to the risk of an invasion.
The NATO alliance is fundamental to Norway’s security, and the strength of the alliance is based on the principle that an attack on one is an attack on all. If we allow a Ukrainian defeat to create discord within the alliance, this principle could be weakened. Putin might see this as an opportunity to invade other European countries to reclaim his historical lands.
35% of Norway’s population fears war with Russia. Although this may not be realistic in the near future, European leaders such as the President of France, Denmark’s Minister of Defense, the Secretary-General of NATO, the German Defense Minister , the President of Poland, and the Swedish Commander-in-Chief warn that Russia could attack NATO if they win the war.
The good news is that everything described in this section will be made impossible, if we ensure that Ukraine wins. We can put Ukraine on the path to victory, but it is dependent on us immediately providing military support to Ukraine.
The choice is yours. You can define us in the history books of the future as short-sighted and self-centered, or you can choose to make Norway act to prevent the pain that will unfold if Ukraine loses.
Let’s give 5% to Ukraine.
All parts of the opinion piece
