Part 6 of the “5% to Ukraine” opinion piece
Why Ukraine Urgently Require our Support, and the Danger of a Ceasefire
Ukraine will be eradicated without more military support
Part of the 5% to Ukraine opinion piece. The original Norwegian text was written to implore the people of Norway to invest 5% of our sovereign wealth fund in a Ukrainian victory and the future of Europe. It has been translated into English for a wider audience.
Ukraine can still win the war, but their situation is perilous. In April, Zelensky had to warn the American Congress that Ukraine would lose the war if the U.S. did not soon finalize the new aid bill and sent more military aid.
We hear that the morale of Ukrainian soldiers is declining due to a lack of military equipment. We hear that Russia can fire several times more artillery shells than Ukraine. We hear that Ukrainian men are fleeing from a new mobilization. We hear that Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, does not have enough air defenses to protect its population from Russian missiles after the Russians launched an offensive in May.
At the same time, Russia is conducting targeted attacks against critical Ukrainian infrastructure, especially the Ukrainian power grid.
There are also traces of war fatigue in the West. Other conflicts around the world have diverted attention away from Ukraine. European leaders continue to proclaim the importance of the war, but recently it was revealed that Germany plans to halve its support to Ukraine in its next budget.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Trump threatens to end all American support for Ukraine if he wins the election in November. Confidence in Ukraine’s victory is beginning to wane in the West, and with it, support for Ukraine.
All of this has led Ukraine, for the first time, to consider starting negotiations based on Russia’s terms, which Zelensky previously described as “offensive to common sense.”
Russian Terms for Peace Negotiations
It may seem that Putin is pushing for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine, but let’s take a look at the two main terms Putin stipulated for a ceasefire in June. Remember, these were not terms for peace, but only conditions for a temporary ceasefire that would allow peace negotiations to begin.
1: Ukraine must withdraw its soldiers from the regions of Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, which Russia has claimed
- It is important to understand that Russia does not control these regions — they have partially occupied them. This means that Putin demands control over lands, villages, and cities that lie behind the front lines and have never before been under Russian control.
- Ukraine must also give up trenches and defense lines that have proven effective in holding back the Russians for over two years.
2: Ukraine must renounce NATO membership.
- If Ukraine agrees to this, they remove their one chance to insure themselves against a future Russian invasion.
In a negotiation, the outcome depends on the strength of your negotiating position. Russia demands that Ukraine give up its entire negotiating position — its soldiers’ trenches, its lands, its cities, its population, and the threat of joining NATO — before Russia is willing to even start negotiations.
This would put Russia in such a strong position that they would undoubtedly make further demands during peace negotiations. Russia could also choose to actively sabotage the negotiations, so that the war is continued on new front lines — where the Ukrainians have not had time to build adequate defensive positions.
Ukraine has repeatedly said that they do not believe in a peace agreement with Russia. It is hard to blame them for this, given how little previous agreements have meant to Russia.
If a peace agreement is signed, Ukraine naturally fears that Russia will only use the peace time to rearm for a new conflict. It is likely that Russia will demand that Ukraine limit the size of its armed forces as part of the peace agreement, which would simplify future invasions by Russia.
The West should have learnt by now that we can never trust the current Russian government again. We must understand that they will continue to lie as long as it benefits them.
Why Russia Does Not Want Peace
Putin has not achieved perhaps the most important goal of the war, which is to eliminate the threat to his regime.
You have probably heard that the reason Russia had to attack Ukraine, was because they feared NATO expansion and future Western aggression.
Russia knows that the West is self-centered. They know that it is almost impossible for us to think that something can happen in the world, without us being the reason it happened. Russia’s imagined threat from NATO has therefore proven to be very effective propaganda against the West.
If Russia truly believed that NATO was willing to attack them, they would not have left the border with Finland almost defenseless after Finland joined NATO. The Russians know that the NATO, a defensive alliance, is not a threat to Russia. They know that NATO does not expand by force.
The threat to Putin is not NATO, but the fact that a former Soviet state can operate a functioning democracy in his backyard. The threat to Putin is the idealism the Ukrainian population displayed, when they stood up against election fraud during the Orange Revolution. The threat to Putin is how Ukraine’s population fought for the right to govern themselves during the Maidan Revolution, driving out their pro-Russian president after Russian interference in their approach to Europe. The threat to Putin and his regime lies in the ideas that Ukrainians can inspire in his own population.
Let’s make it clear. Russia does not want peace with Ukraine. Russia attacked Ukraine because they were convinced they could conquer them. Russia attacked Ukraine because their imperialist mindset refuses to recognize Ukraine as an independent state. Russia attacked Ukraine because Putin fears their ideas so deeply that he must crush their democracy.
Putin knows that he has not won the war until he has eradicated the very idea of Ukraine.
The only reason Russia might want to end the current conflict, is because it will help them win the war. As stated before, everything Russia does aims to maximise Ukraine’s suffering while minimising their own. We must stop letting Russia win.
The only way to create a better and more democratic world is to ensure that Ukraine is victorious.
Let us give 5% to Ukraine.
All parts of the opinion piece
