Drastic CO2 emissions cut possible, COVID-19 proves
Hitherto unimaginable: carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year are expected to fall spectacularly back to the 2010 level
Since the coronavirus outbreak rudely put a break on global production, travel, consumption and other economic activities, energy demand has fallen massively. The resulting fall in carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 is now expected to be almost twice as large as all the previous declines since the end of World War II combined, essentially lowering emissions down to 2010, says the International Energy Agency (IEA) Global Energy Review 2020.
The energy demand in Q1 this year declined by 3.8% compared to the same period last year, reversing all the growth of 2019. Subsequently global CO2 emissions fell by 5% year-on-year, mainly due to an 8% decline in the emissions from coal, 4.5% from oil and 2.3% from natural gas.
The emissions dropped deeper than the energy demand, as the most carbon-intensive fuels saw the largest declines in demand during the period.
Regions most ravaged by COVID-19 have seen the deepest declines in CO2 emissions; China (-8%), the European Union (-8%) and the United States (-9%). Milder weather conditions have also contributed significantly to the fall in the United States.
We are driving less
Researchers say the biggest cut in CO2 emissions has been from the reduction in road transport, BBC News reported. According to the IEA, global average road transport activity fell to 50% of the 2019 level by the end of March. As illustrated in the chart below, roads in every major city in Asia are now quiet compared to the same period last year. The relative standstills have translated to reductions in oil consumption.
We are flying less
The demand for air travel has also dropped dramatically. Globally, the number of scheduled flights is now down by 70% compared to the same week last year, deduces OAG, a travel data analyst.
However, since “air emissions are only about 3% of global total… while the relative reductions in land transport are lower than air transport, the absolute reductions there are much more significant,” Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), told BBC News.
CO2 emissions will continue to fall in 2020
How energy demand changes during the rest of this year depends most notably on the duration, stringency and geographical spread of lockdowns and the speed of recoveries. Initial IEA evaluations indicate that the full-year energy demand could decline by around 6%, equivalent to the combined energy consumption of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom in 2019.
The projected decline, the largest in absolute term in 70 years, would be seven times greater than that caused by the 2008 financial crisis, reversing the growth of global energy demand over the last five years.
In tandem, global CO2 emissions in 2020 are expected to be almost 8% less than in 2019.
The rise of renewable energy
In contrast with the sharp contraction in the demand for fossil fuels and nuclear energy, the demand for renewable energy is expected to grow by 0.8% this year because of low operating costs and preferential access to many power systems, the IEA report adds. Recent growth in capacity, with some new projects coming online in 2020, will also boost output. Biofuels, however, are likely to see less demand due to lower transport activity.
The fall not enough for our planet
Although massive, the fall in CO2 emissions this year will unfortunately not stop climate change as the gas concentrations in the atmosphere that are heating up our planet will not stabilise until emissions go down to net-zero. Also, history tells us that abrupt declines in emissions are usually followed by sharp rises. For example, the plunge triggered by the recession in 2009 was followed by a spike of almost 6% in 2010. In China, emissions have already rebounded as the manufacturing juggernaut restarted her factories back at the end of March, reported Reuters.
It is now commonly acknowledged that global temperatures could catastrophically rise by 3–4C by the end of this century if CO2 levels are not ruthlessly reduced. To keep below the relatively safe limit of 1.5C, CO2 emissions need to be cut by around 5% — roughly the same as the fall expected this year — every year until net-zero emissions are reached around 2050, Glen Peters, another senior researcher at CICERO, shared with BBC News.
If anything, the COVID-19 crisis has proven to the world that such a cut is possible, albeit rather painful when totally unplanned. With careful planning and implementation of climate policies that lead to the deployment of clean technologies, rise of eco-friendly businesses and green business models as well as reductions in energy demand, it ought to be possible for such a cut to happen until our civilisation is saved.
Inspired by “Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash” by Matt McGrath on BBC News.
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