BTC September Analysis and Overall Market Sentiment
Recap of BTC for short to mid term
We know BTC had a parabolic move upwards between November to January, with a price increase of 260% in 34 days. Previously to that, we saw new record highs and lower lows on a monthly basis. Run-ups like these are normally not sustainable, and a correction will usually follow. This time was not an exception to the rule, and a correction we got. On the chart above we see the price creating, what looks like a strong support at the 5900 area, marked by three arrows. There is also a not so clear support and possibly resistance marked by dotted lines. For the time being this support have shown great strength, and NCG will keep filling longs here until this strong support turns out to be not viable anymore.
The chart played out beautiful with the support turning out to be a more than a great place to fill longs. For now we see a bearish sentiment as the RSI closes in on resistance together with the price action. The most ideal scenario would materialize If we get a strong close above resistance with some volume, and preferably a small drop with a bounce on the previous resistance.
We like to bring in some fundamentals into our TA. Most recently there has been a lot of chatter about ETF’s. First one got denied, now there are a couple of more dates to follow up on. September 7th, 21th and september 30th, these dates are ETF deadlines, where it will either be denied, approved, and some of these dates it can also be delayed. Sentiment around the market is that they are about to be denied and/or delayed
Our buy and sell targets for the upcoming month
As we are now entering September with the weekly candle closing at 7300$ and with just four months of the year remaining, we are beginning to see some small bullish sign. Although the market is still very weak, and we are initially bear for the moment, we are in our 3rd consecutive green week with the last weekly candle having the biggest move with 6652$ being the bottom. We are proned to have a big move coming up, as we are now starting to touch the lines of the current symmetric triangle we are in.
If BTC is going to breakout from the triangle, we are aiming for 7.8–8.5 as our first targets for shorting, as it would test old resistance levels. If it were to break down and under the support lines in the triangle, we are seeing 4.5–5 as our first targets for buying.
On the picture above we have marked each bull and bear period this year. As we can see all the bear runs have been on average longer and bigger moves to the downside, while when we were in bullish periods, the price has been moving slowly, and could not hold up for more than 27 days, as the longest period. This is one of the biggest reasons we are bear for the longer term. It’s also worth mentioning that BTC hasn’t touched the 200 day MA since Mars 14th. We are currently in our 4th bullrun this year, and we are currently on day 20. This will be very interesting to keep an eye on.
Upcoming events for september
- Sept. 7th: Bitwise ETF First Deadline
- Sept. 21st: Direxion ETF Final Deadline
- Sept. 30th: CBOE VanEck / SolidX ETF Second Deadline
With the first ETF from ProShares being rejected, we have 3 more decisions upcoming and these are worth paying attention too.
Our top altcoin picks for september: Validity and WandX
Validity(previously Ðivision X) is a community driven coin with the intention of making the crypto enviroment a safer space by letting users “vote” with their tokens for which crypto projects they find legitimate. This token is only obtained trough airdrop and 60% of the total supply will be airdropped to the community.
WandX is creating a DEX which lets you trade NEP5 tokens on their plattform. Most importantly, they will let you trade multiple ERC20 tokens in one single transaction.
Check out for more information here:
Conclusion: We are approaching several ETF decisions as bitcoin keeps its steady climb from the 5.8 area with several altcoins going 20–100% during the same period of time. We are optimistic for the future and we think we can have something similar of a run with 2019 approaching. If Bitcoin were to break out of its 6 month long triangle and keep its steam going, we think Oktober can be the month where things will really start to kick off.
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