The Labour Party will not split — but Corbyn must reach out to his opponents for it to function
Although I am by no means convinced yet that Jeremy Corbyn will win the Labour leadership election, I am pretty certain of one thing. The Labour party will not split.
In part, my certainty is derived from the tactics that his opponents have used to try and oust him. The big play was to use rolling Shadow Cabinet resignations to stop the party as opposition being able to function and persuade Corbyn that he should resign. If rumours are true, it almost worked.
But since he resisted those calls, they tried to force him off the ballot, again only narrowly failing. And since there have been numerous attempts to limit the numbers of those able to vote, continuing this week with a number of rejection letters being sent out. In short, everything Corbyn’s opponents have done has been attempt to stop this vote, and then to limit the number of voters as best as possible.
That is because Corbyn’s opponents are certain that they cannot win this vote. Rather than try to come up with any form of progressive policy-making to tempt Corbyn supporters to their side, they have used bullying tactics and court appeals to try and undemocratically wrest control of the party.
Why put in all of this effort, if they are only going to leave Labour after a probably Corbyn victory? I believe that the answer comes down to two fairly mundane things; money, and data.
The money bit is quite obvious, really. Labour has never had the kind of rich donors backing the party which the Conservatives rely on and continues to rely on trade unions and membership fees to provide a substantial amount of its funding. Were a new party to be formed without a large membership or the backing of the unions, funding would be a huge issue. While there may be some wealthy donors who relish the thought of funding a brand new party, I imagine many would see it as a fairly risky investment.
That brings us to the second point; data. In the age of data protection, setting up a new party is a logistical nightmare. You need a large network of activists to campaign successfully in any constituency, but how are you going to contact them? Setting up a new party would only work if half of the Labour membership left with the PLP, and the majority of the membership seems likely to vote for Corbyn, let alone be considering a split. Political parties also use huge amounts of voter data, some of which can be taken from the Electoral Register. Other data which has been explicitly been given to the Labour Party, however, is likely to be off limits. Building networks and collecting email addresses to make such a project into a viable political party could take a decade or more to achieve. It simply does not seem feasible.
How, then, should Corbyn and his supporters respond to this? Firstly, he can not rest on his laurels, as any victory in the leadership contest is likely to see further smears, refusals to work i n the Shadow Cabinet and attempts to completely block the function of the Labour Party as the opposition.
Although he drew criticism from some Corbyn supporters for his previous article outlining ‘Questions All Jeremy Corbyn Supporters Need to Answer’, Owen Jones’ latest video highlights some very important goals for Labour and the Corbyn team in the wake of a second leadership contest victory. There is no doubt that there is room for improvement in media strategy and Corbyn’s team must aim to produce a solid manifesto of simple policies which will demonstrably improve people’s lives (I have alluded to what a few of these could be previously).
Perhaps the most convincing point, however, is Jones’ assertion that Corbyn should reach out to his opponents, even going as far to suggest that half of the Shadow Cabinet could be elected by the PLP. Whilst the details of any bargaining will doubtlessly be hard fought by both sides, but is far preferable to any mass mandatory reselection of MPs.
That is because many MPs have strong relationships with their constituencies, fostered through years of appearances at local surgeries, answering letters and standing up in Parliament on their behalf. Certainly not all MPs have this kind of relationship, particularly those parachuted in to win safe seats as has been Labour policy in the past. It is difficult enough to win marginal seats with a familiar face, but even moreso with a newcomer who may have a lower local profile than their opponent (who may have campaigned in the area before). That is not to say Labour wouldn’t benefit from reselection in some constituencies (particularly after boundary changes are enforced), but supporting this as a blanket policy to purge the party of centrists could cause far more trouble than it’s worth.
Offering an olive branch in this way may work, or it may not. But it is clear that the party is doomed unless some form of co-operation is offered by both sides. Their is certainly an onus on the PLP to support their leader, but Corbyn must also try to create an environment in which they are willing to do so.
The assault from the media will not stop, and the hard work for Corbyn’s supporters within Labour will really start once the leadership contest is over. Whilst a convincing victory would give him a strong mandate to pursue many of his own policies, it is essential that Corbyn and his team work out how they can build bridges with the likes of the Guardian and Channel 4 (the BBC may be a lost cause), as well as with members of the PLP.
A victory in the leadership contest must be an incentive for Corbyn to continue doing what he is doing well, but also to improve in the areas where it is possible. A failure to do so is, in my opinion, unlikely to see the Labour Party to split, yet the party will cease to function effectively if it cannot co-operate.
