23+ ‘non-traditional’ races to watch
nswpol23 and guest writer Sir John See
Last year’s federal election was hailed by many as a sign of the declining applicability of the two-party model to Australian politics.
The age of the ‘teal’ was said to be upon us with independents taking seats from previously-safe Liberal MPs in the northern suburbs of Sydney.
This had brought the community independent model, pioneered by Cathy McGowan’s 2013 campaign in rural Victoria, to Liberal heartland in the suburbs of capital cities. The ‘Greenslide’ in Queensland also saw both the LNP and Labor unexpectedly lose seats to the Greens.
In NSW, we can see an echoing of this breakdown of the two-party system in as far back as 2016 when the Orange by-election broke National party dominance of the seat. The most significant change to the party composition in the Legislative Assembly in 2019, when compared to 2015, was the rise of the SFF and rural independent Joe McGirr.
Now in 2023, the ‘teal’ movement has come to threaten NSW Liberal state seats in the same way that it did federally and the threat of the Greens to the major parties is moving beyond their stronghold in the Inner West.
There is no longer a statewide narrative to NSW politics. The 2023 election is going to be fought seat-by-seat.
LIBERAL-HELD
Willoughby (v IND)
Former Premier Gladys Berejikian’s old seat was almost lost to independent candidate Larissa Penn at the 2022 by-election. The area was won at the federal level by “teal” independent Kylea Tink only months later. Penn is challenging new incumbent Tim James again at the general election.
Wollondilly (v IND)
Independent candidate Judy Hannan received 44.5% of the 2CP vote for Wollondilly on Sydney’s periurban fringe in 2019. Now, Hannan returns to challenge now-incumbent Liberal Nathaniel Smith this time with the backing of Climate200, in a departure from the group’s usual focus on inner city urban seats. Labor, which held the seat before 2011, has not devoted resources to the seat this time.
South Coast (v GRN)
Notionally a safe Liberal seat, the retirement of long-term incumbent Shelley Hancock opens the seat up to the possibility of a three-cornered contest between popularly-elected Greens Shoalhaven Mayor Amanda Findley, Labor Shoalhaven Councillor Liza Butler and former Liberal staffer Luke Sikora. South Coast is one of two regional seats being targeted by the Greens this election.
North Shore (v IND)
Independent Helen Conway, backed by Climate200, is challenging what is nominally a safe Liberal seat but was previously held by “father of the independents” Ted Mack. Felicity Wilson has held the seat since 2017.
Manly (v IND)
Independent Joeline Hackman, backed by Climate200, is challenging what is nominally a safe Liberal seat but with a strong history of independents over the last century. Environment Minister James Griffin succeeded outgoing Premier Mike Baird in the seat in 2017. Baird had defeated two-term incumbent independent David Barr for the seat in 2007. Federally, the seat is in teal Zali Steggall’s Warringah.
Lane Cove (v IND)
Independent Victoria Davidson, backed by Climate200, is challenging Planning Minister Anthony Roberts in the nominally-safe Liberal seat. Roberts has held the seat for twenty years since the retirement of Liberal leader Kerry Chikarovski. Federally, the seat is based in teal Kylea Tink’s North Sydney seat.
READ OUR INTERVIEW WITH VICTORIA DAVIDSON
Hawkesbury (v IND)
The nominally safe Liberal seat of Hawkesbury is being contested by first term incumbent Robyn Preston and community independent Angela Maguire, who is running without Climate200 support.
Wahroonga (v IND)
The new nominally safe Liberal seat of Wahroonga is being contested by Skills Minister Alister Henskens and teal-style community independent Kristyn Haywood, who is running without Climate200 support.
Vaucluse (v IND)
Held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors almost continuously for the near-century since its creation, Vaucluse is being vacated by deposed Minister Gabrielle Upton. Community independent Karen Freyer is mounting a strong challenge against Liberal candidate and Nine Network journalist Kellie Sloane without support from Climate200.
Federally, the seat is in teal Allegra Spender’s Wentworth.
Wakehurst (v IND)
An open seat for the first time in more than three decades with the retirement of long-term incumbent Brad Hazzard, Wakehurst is nominally a safe Liberal seat. However, popular long-term Mayor of the Northern Beaches and its predecessor Warringah Michael Regan is challenging Liberal candidate and Dee Why RSL Director Toby Williams as an independent.
Pittwater (v IND)
Climate200-backed independent Jacqui Scruby is challenging what is nominally a safe Liberal seat but with a strong history of independents over the last four decades. Outgoing MP Planning Minister Rob Stokes called for a female Liberal candidate but Northern Beaches Councillor Rory Amon was endorsed instead. Federally, the seat is in teal Sophie Scamp’s Mackellar.
Davidson (v IND)
Retiring Speaker Jonathan O’Dea’s safe Liberal seat of Davidson is being contested by Liberal former Baird staffer Matt Cross and teal-style community independent Janine Kitson, who ran for the federal seat of Bradfield last year and is running without Climate200 support.
NATIONAL-HELD
Tamworth (v IND)
Water Minister Kevin Anderson is being challenged in Tamworth for the second time by National-turned independent Mark Rodda, opposing water privatisation.
LABOR-HELD
Lismore (v GRN)
Former Federal MP Janelle Saffin returned to state politics in 2019, wresting Lismore from Nationals hands on Greens preferences.
The Greens came close to claiming the seat in 2015 with candidate Adam Guise and again in 2019. Now, Guise returns to contest the seat again but Saffin’s high profile following the Lismore floods should be sufficient to prevent a 3-cornered contest with Alex Rubin (Nat). Lismore is adjacent to Ballina, the Greens’ first ever regional seat won in 2015.
Heffron (v GRN)
A high Greens vote here in 2019 (17.8%) should be surmountable for Labor following redistribution. Against Labor incumbent Ron Hoenig is Greens Randwick councillor Philipa Veitch.
Shellharbour (v IND)
Shellharbour Mayor Chris Homer is mounting a challenge in the safe Labor state seat after being elected as an Independent in 2021. Replication of that success at the state level has the potential to cause a headache for Labor.
Cabramatta (v IND)
Lawyer Tri Vo was preselected late in the nominally safe Labor seat of Cabramatta, defeating fellow lawyer Kate Hoang, who is now running against him as an independent.
Summer Hill (v GRN)
Summer Hill was one of two seats created to succeed Marrickville in 2015, the other being Greens-stronghold Newtown. Shadow Transport Minister Jo Haylen’s seat of Summer Hill is the Greens’ best chance for an inner-city win, which is reflected in a strong campaign being led by their candidate Izabella Antoniou.
GREENS-HELD
Ballina (v NAT)
The Greens’ rural seat, picked up in 2015 by Tamara Smith, is a target for the National Party, who have nominated Josh Booyens this election.
Balmain (v LAB)
The Greens are determined to retain their safe inner-city seat of Balmain after long-serving incumbent Jamie Parker announced his retirement, the first ever for a Greens lower house MP in Australia. Greens Inner West councillor Kobi Shetty is vying to replace the popular member, with Labor intent on reclaiming the former heartland seat.
INDEPENDENT-HELD
Murray (v NAT)
Former SFF MP Helen Dalton captured the remote seat of Murray from the Nationals on her third attempt in 2019. Dalton resigned from the SFF in 2022 and is running for re-election as an independent. The Nationals have endorsed Edward River Councillor Peta Betts to reclaim the seat.
Barwon (v NAT)
SFF candidate Roy Butler captured the state’s largest seat, the remote Barwon from the Nationals in 2019. Butler resigned from the SFF in 2022 and is running for re-election as an independent. The Nationals have endorsed former head of the NSW Country Women’s Association Annette Turner to reclaim the seat.
Kiama (v LIB)
Liberal candidate Gareth Ward took Kiama from Labor in 2011 but resigned from the party and was suspended from parliament following indecent assault and common assault charges. Ward denies the charges and is running for re-election as an independent. Labor’s Katelin McInerney is campaigning hard to regain the seat despite a steep margin. The Liberals are aiming to win back the seat, with deposed Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons as their candidate.
Orange (v NAT)
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Phillip Donato won Orange from the Nationals in 2016 and was re-elected in 2019 with 49.15% of the primary vote. Now an independent, Donato is being challenged by the SFF’s Aaron Kelly as well as Tony Mileto of the National Party. Donato brings a huge personal vote so the seat has the potential for a significant three-cornered contest.
Wagga Wagga (v NAT)
Wagga Wagga will see a three-cornered contest between Joe McGirr, the Liberals’ Julia Ham and the Nationals’ Andrianna Benjamin after both Coalition parties nominated a candidate there. The Liberals did not contest the seat after the resignation of disgraced MP Darryl Maguire.
Last updated: 11 March 2023
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