“We don’t make good deals anymore” Episode 1: The Wall
“The problem with Washington, they don’t make deals, it’s all gridlock … I’ll get everybody together. We’ll make great deals for the country.” — President Donald J. Trump
A “MEXICAN STAND-OFF” IN WASHINGTON D.C.

Trump may have won the election on a Republican ticket, but he isn’t a traditional member of the party. After failing to repeal Obamacare, internal frustrations have grown to an all-time high. Reports have surfaced about verbal disputes between Trump and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell.
It doesn’t stop there.
Four GOP Senators (Arizona Senators Jeff Flake & John McCain, Nevada’s Dean Heller, and South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham) have been singled out for stepping out of line with Trump. The President has even gone so far to endorse their political rivals in upcoming re-election campaigns.
On the third side of the stand-off lie the Democrats, who share a far more impressive unity in their party. Their sheer numbers from their popular vote victory have been leveraged to pressure Republicans in crucial votes, resulting in historic tie-breakers in the Senate, summoning Vice President Mike Pence to intervene.
It is the Democrats’ weakness that gives them strength.
Democrats are forced to vote unanimously together since they are outnumbered 52–48 in the Senate. Outside of that, it is becoming increasingly more popular to disapprove of President Trump, as a ratings gap since February continues to grow (FiveThirtyEight has his average disapproval at 56.8% for 8/23/17). It would appear that it is in the public interest to shoot at anything Donald Trump says or does.
However, the harrowing disapproval rating has not been converting into flipped seats, as Democrats are 0–5 in challenging Republicans for special election seats. The Georgia 6th District race between R- Karen Handel and D- Jon Osoff reached national attention.
“It was the most expensive congressional race in history. The Democrats alone dropped more than $30 million into the race.” — Charlie Gerow for Arc Digital
THE RACE AGAINST TIME
Democrats are at stake of losing big league in 2018; they have to defend 25 of their 48 seats in 2018, and with 6 seats being in states that are 5% more Republican than the national average, it seems reckless dumping that much cash for one race. Conversely, Republicans only have to defend 8 seats in 2018. None of them are in Democratic leaning States.
“All Republicans would need to obtain 60 seats would be to win every seat in the 30 states that Trump won — no Clinton states needed.” — David Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight
Thus far, the Democrats national message has been “impeach Trump.” Approval polls and popular vote may entice them to continue to play this angle, as they are on track for controlling the House, at least, in 2018. There’s still fourteen months, which feels even longer in political time, to build political capital, but the math isn’t in their favor. They could play the long-game, or use the leverage they have now before their last resort is sitting on the floor for a day.
Is it time to make a deal?

President Trump wants unity, but it’s popular to hate him right now. A deal between the three sides must preserve the integrity of each party.
Trump was down in Phoenix, Arizona, one of the states holding the US/Mexico border, for a rally Tuesday night. He said the word “Wall” 17 times. (Right Side Broadcasting Network has video of the speech, Jack Posobiec has the full transcript.)
“Build that wall. Now the obstructionist Democrats would like us not to do it. But believe me, if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall.” — President Trump in Phoenix Arizona 8/22/17
With apparently only 12 working days to authorize a budget by October 1, this is a MOAB-level threat on the Senate.
“If the president pursues this path, against the wishes of both Republicans and Democrats, as well as the majority of the American people, he will be heading towards a government shutdown which nobody will like and which won’t accomplish anything,” — Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (Source: Business Insider)
Trump’s threats may be legitimate.
Trump is a businessman. Despite his low approval rating, he’s taking credit for record levels of “low unemployment, high consumer confidence, and a booming stock market”. He might not care about his reputation with numbers like that. Also, if his approval ratings are dipping despite the economic boom, appealing to his base may be his only worthwhile option. He’s in quite a comfortable position to bluff.
Let’s review Trump’s current stance on Immigration.
Trump is so tough on immigration, it seems his own aura is enough to drop illegal border crossings, which were down nearly 40% after Inauguration. in In it’s first year of implementation, The RAISE Act, which adopts a points based system that favors college educated, English-speaking immigrants with investments and salaries that exceed the median household income, could vastly reduce legal immigration by a similar 40%. Lastly, Trump has threatened to pull federal funding from cities, that do not comply with new law enforcement standards and compliance with the Department of Homeland Security. This has already triggered lawsuits from courts across the country. The topic is so hot, places like Texas & Richmond, California have jumped the gun before any violations to the law were found.
“We want every American community to succeed, including our immigrant communities, but they can’t do that if we don’t control our borders.” — President Trump, Phoenix, AZ.
There is one blind spot, however, to the President’s multi-pronged attack towards Immigration; The Dreamers. Donald Trump has said, in his ABC News interview in January, that he has “a big heart” for the immigrants protected under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Act (DACA), that was enacted under President Obama. “The Obama administration put a lot of restraints on ICE”, but Trump’s bolstering of the agency has had an indirect effect on a few Dreamers being deported, despite Trump’s public support for them.
THE GANG OF EIGHT

Republicans and Democrats actually have experience working together on fixing immigration. In fact, three of the republican Senators that Trump has targeted (Jeff Flake, Lindsey Graham & John McCain) were part of the eight member bipartisan group (the “Gang of Eight”) that wrote the 2013 immigration reform bill. To avoid more heat from the President, and possibly an endorsement when re-election comes around soon, they’d consider dealing up. A reunion of the Gang of Eight could also be a point of intrigue for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who was one of the four Democrats involved in the bill writing.
The bill recognized the immense public cost of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, and instead offered them a path to citizenship. Fast-tracking permanent residency status and citizenship for current legal immigrants, as well as employment verification & work visa reforms, was also on the table. However, the bill died after a year-and-a-half of inaction at the House. Our current session of Congress will be active until January 3, 2019. If the Democrats are indeed on track to controlling the House, there is a low chance the bill could expire if revived.
An intrepid investment on the Democratic side, who can chaperone millions of new members into voter eligibility if they can take credit in legitimizing them. It would be our modern day version of Black voters switching to the Democratic party as a result of President Lyndon B. Johnson’s support of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
WRAPPING UP A GOOD DEAL
Trump previously played another card against Congress after the repeal & replace Obamacare effort failed; freezing cost-sharing reduction payments to Obamacare. The Senate have already produced a bipartisan coalition to fight this, and plan to meet in a few days. If Republicans or Democrats could negotiate the payments with Trump if they need more time to fix the health care Act.
“If Trump were smart, I think that’s what he would do … Somebody can benefit from negotiating with the Democrats and getting something out of it” — Robert Bixby per The Fiscal Times
A government shutdown was already predicted in late Spring, when Trump previewed his budget plans that hinted at dishing domestic spending funds towards Defense. Trump has been urging since February, and called upon it again in Tuesday’s rally, for Republican Senators to capitalize on their majority by abolishing the Filibuster rule, undermining the Democrats power to resist them. However, Republicans aren’t keen on doing so, and prefer the “reconciliation” tactic to size down to a 51-vote majority, something they’ve used for bypassing the Democrats and putting a repeal vote for Obamacare on the floor & are planning to use for upcoming tax reform. In the threat of a shutdown, however, this may be the first time this year the Democrats will be given a substantial platform to say what they want, instead of simply always saying “no”.
