Meteorologists, Misunderstood

I first caught the “bug” around the age of 10.

Living in a small community on the south shore of Brooklyn, strong thunderstorms were uncommon during my childhood. The ocean generally stabilizes the atmosphere along the south shore of Long Island during the warm season, and peak thunderstorm season isn’t actually until August and September — when the difference between the ocean and air temperature isn’t so dramatic, and thunderstorms can survive.

On a warm, humid summer night in 2000, a rare strong thunderstorm made its way through Brooklyn. Sitting on our front steps, looking westward, I watched what I still consider the most incredible lightning display I have ever seen. Near constant lightning; both cloud to cloud, and cloud to ground. My ten year old self had never felt so powerless to the energy of the atmosphere.

15 years later, meteorology has become my passion. It is my study, my profession, and my hobby. I spend each day pouring a significant amount of energy into forecasting the weather, and making sure I do it in the correct fashion. And never once, while forecasting, do I truly feel that I am “working”.

The best part of each day is that a new challenge is presented. Sure, this is probably true for many other professional fields. But meteorology provides a completely different set of tasks each day; no two weather patterns, while sometimes similar, are exactly the same. The fluid processes of the atmosphere keep meteorologists humbled each day, while forcing us to learn and consistently polish our skills.

Nevertheless, the public perception of meteorologists often seems to be best described as elementary. It’s not uncommon for us to hear things such as: “Meteorologists have the easiest job in the world”, or “If I was wrong at my job as often as you are, Id be fired”. While always flattering, these sayings are simply misconceptions about what meteorologists actually do. What meteorologists actually do, throughout a daily forecast process, seems to often be misunderstood.

We vigorously analyze the current and past atmospheric pattern

Imagine coming in to work, and immediately analyzing your past work and current tasks with a fine-toothed comb. Meteorologists have to make sure that analysis of the current pattern, in multiple levels of the atmosphere, is as detailed as it can possibly be. If the initial conditions are not fully understood, the rest of the forecast will have a precarious foundation.

Analysis involves looking at an innumerable amount of data. For simplification, take it this way: We analyze surface observations, all types of radar and satellite imagery, the atmosphere at multiple levels (including temperature and wind) and the ongoing atmospheric circulations.

We analyze weather models — but try our darnedest to use them only as guidance tools

Weather models are an essential part of moving forward with a forecast. But it is always important to remember that they are, by definition, computer models simulating a fluid atmospheric process. They aren’t perfect, they have plenty of biases and faults, and they should be used accordingly.

Looking at a large number of forecast models is usually beneficial, but understanding the ongoing atmospheric pattern is paramount. Each day, meteorologists use their skills in understanding the atmosphere to properly weight these weather models in their forecast.

It can, at times, be tempting to get caught up in computer models as a whole. With so many sources producing weather models nowadays, the amount of graphics and data available is tremendous. Meteorologists have more tools in their hands than ever before.

Understanding exactly how to use these forecast models is critical to the forecast. Using trends, ensembles, and properly weighting each model’s solution based on atmospheric pattern recognition are all essential elements to a forecasting process.

We try to get information out as quickly, and accurately, as possible

The battle between information and hype is still fairly fresh in the meteorological community. Meteorology is really just now entering the era where graphics and data are saturating the internet. With this increase of data sources has come, as expected, an increase in sharing for purposes other than awareness.

As meteorologists, we are trying our best to get this information out as quickly as possible, all while not causing any unnecessary hype or confusion. The hope is that pieces, such as the one you’re reading right now, will help close the gap in understanding between the general public and meteorologists.

We’re always trying to improve

Most meteorologists know this: Forecasting the weather will always find a way to humble you.

Just like most people in their careers, as meteorologists, we are always trying to get better at what we do. While each day presents a new challenge, learning and improving from each day of forecasting is what truly helps a meteorologist become better prepared for the future.

So, the next time the forecast doesn’t work out exactly as anticipated, you don’t get that thunderstorm you (thought) was promised, or you end up with less snow than your neighboring town; don’t default to blaming the meteorologist.

Instead, lets improve our lines of communication. Let’s work to make sure that information is shared as quickly, and accurately, as possible. No hype, just science. And lets work together; where meteorologists take more time to explain the atmosphere to the public, and the public takes more time to understand meteorologists and what their job really entails.

This piece was written and compiled by John Homenuk. John is the Founder and Lead Forecaster of New York Metro Weather, LLC. You can visit our website here.