On the continent, it’s getting increasingly difficult to argue against a European Super League — and that’s exactly the problem.
Bayern & PSG are Michael Owen — everybody else watching is Neville Southall.
The other night I was arguing that I’d love to see Celtic and Rangers play in the Premier League — it’s something that’s never seemed particularly controversial or radical to me. The case for it makes a great deal of sense.
They have fantastic stadia, are amongst the best supported clubs in Europe, and have a very rich history — yet are currently being strangled in a league system with a single coefficient place, where league title wins are rendered of little value by being seen as an inevitable default. Taking away the Old Firm would smash the glass ceiling of 2nd place that the other clubs are currently staring up at (3rd place, probably, once Rangers return) and that would re-establish the Scottish league as something genuinely competitive. Logistically the distances would be no great shakes, especially compared to Spain or France.
It was only when I was asked if that meant I’d be behind a European Super League that I’d realised; almost word-for-word, I’m making the same arguments that greedy ignoramuses like Charlie Stillitano are making, but with Celtic and Rangers replaced with Barcelona, Juventus, PSG and Bayern. I don’t need to spell out what’s so nauseating about a European Super League, and if you need reminding or convincing, Iain MacIntosh wrote a brutal and brilliant takedown of the idea. If a European Super League could be seen as a solution, it just underlines that there is a problem.
There are certain clubs where I can’t help but recall Neville Southall sneeringly congratulating Michael Owen in one of the most classic YouTube football clips — “well done, he’s 13”. Olympiakos are one such name, Celtic increasingly another, where I can’t help but wonder where the glory, fun or sense of achievement lies in winning a league title by steamrolling past opponents of a much lower economic standing . When that happens the prestige and value of the competition is eroded. This could be what’s beginning to happen with Europe’s most prestigious competitions— 4 out of 5 of “Europe’s Top 5 Leagues” (Spain, Germany, France, England, Italy) are increasingly looking like one club has a monopoly on the top spot.
This isn’t any more clear than in France with PSG’s ludicrous domination this season; winning the title in March, by probably over 30 points come the end of the season. It’s a league so top heavy that if I was a fan of anyone other side I’d feel like throwing a sarky open-top bus parade to celebrate getting second place. Winning the league at a canter has become such a presumed part of the season that their success will only be defined by how far they get in the Champions League — rendering the 38 domestic matches they play almost meaningless. PSG are still in the early stages of Qatari investment, and they’re still a fair few league titles behind Marseille and Saint Etienne as France’s most successful club, but if it’s not already got tiresome after four domestic titles on the bounce, it can’t be too far away.
In Germany, Pep Guardiola faces a similar problem. He has achieved total domestic success and dominance; looking set to make it three league titles in three years. Yet he will ultimately only be judged on whether Bayern can win the Champions League — what does that say about the Bundesliga? Bayern have always been the biggest club in Germany — them winning three or more titles on the bounce is not a new thing — but it’s looking increasingly likely, with the economic make-up of European football in 2016 that Bayern are now able to consolidate their financial dominance into consistent results and trophies, not least by nabbing some of the best and most promising players of their closest rivals, in Gotze and Lewandowski from Dortmund.
Spain is not quite so clear-cut. Barcelona look set to win six out of the last eight league titles, but have done so without being the single financial superpower of their league; making and spending less, whilst using more academy products than their eternal rivals Real Madrid. Financially, they still leave everyone else in the league totally in their shadow, especially in terms of wagebill and the amounts spent on players like Luis Suarez and Neymar, but their league title wins currently still hold a lot of value by virtue of having one club that can match them financially in Real, and another that is able to compete miraculously through a through teamwork and organisation, on a comparatively modest budget, in Atletico Madrid.
After Napoli’s loss and Higuain’s sending off on the weekend, Italy’s biggest and most successful domestic club look set to win a fifth consecutive title. That’s despite The Old Lady switching managers and many key players leaving during those five years, which goes to demonstrate how sensibly and competently Juventus have been run since their return to Serie A. Extra money from the Champions League has helped them since last season, but Italy remains a relatively competitive and even league — their success borne more out of sensible management, recruitment policy and a consistent impressive spine and defence, rather than any extreme fiscal imbalance.
England has been a brilliant exception — the astonishing amount of money in the Premier League, on initial inspection, seems to have created a much more competitive competition, top-to-bottom, and one a lot more difficult to predict. Leicester look set to win the most unlikely title in English football history, but even if they fall and the title goes to North London, there will have been four different champions in four years, with Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United having disastrous attempts at retaining the title.
Since 2010, purely on-the-pitch the Premier League has been a success — exciting, unpredictable and competitive; it’s what a league competition should be like; perhaps in every aspect but sheer quality. There has been no particularly vintage Champion that could hold a candle to Wenger’s Invincibles, Mourinho’s imperious first Chelsea, or several of Ferguson’s Man United sides; which has been reflected by English clubs poor displays in both tiers of European competition, and no side being able to dominate over a few years.
Leicester City are doing unbelievable, inspirational things and offer hope that I’m talking nonsense and football could still be spared from the clutches of predictable domination. Leicester offer the same antidote that Atletico offered in 2014, that Dortmund offered from 2010–2012, and that Montpellier offered in 2012. The only problem is those great stories are increasingly looking like bright sparks in the rearview mirror; that the sad truth is when Barcelona, Madrid, Bayern and PSG have their act together, there is no stopping them. You could argue that Tuchel’s Dortmund are just as good as Klopp’s — goals scored, points won, etc — but are left in the dust of this Bayern juggernaut. Similarly, this season’s Atletico might be just as good as the one that won the title, yet they face a much better, more effective Barcelona. And were that Montpellier side around now, they’d still be ten points behind this post-Ibrahimovic PSG side, who were still in the early stages of investment and finding their feet during their and Lille’s title wins. The extra revenue that these superpowers have these days means that we’re less and less likely to see them slipping. If Man City can take inspiration from the continental giants and finally shift into the proper gear, it’s dishearteningly impossible for fairytales like Leicester’s to happen, as PSG and Bayern are beginning to prove.
The Premier League is, of course, not a utopian example of the sport. The corporate greed, sponsorship and disproportion between money generated and invested in grass-roots and social problems within the game leaves a sour taste. England must also take some responsibility for the lack of competition in the other European leagues.
We’re facing a situation whereby Bayern, Barcelona, Madrid and PSG are in dominant positions of being able to keep their talent, whilst Juventus are only in danger of losing players like Dybala and Pogba to those superclubs. So whilst the biggest are also able to retain their talent, it leaves the next tier below at risk. For example, for most of last season, Marseille were the only side challenging PSG, yet they lost Payet to the side that finished 12th here last season, and Ayew to the side that finished 8th. Kevin de Bruyne left Wolfsburg for Man City, destroying any chance they might’ve had of improving on their second-placed finish. Look around the Premier League and it’s full of these players. With the full brunt of the television cash not coming in until next season, expect it to amplify further.
You never know, this might not continue. Ancelloti might continue his less than stellar league record and take Bayern to second or third place, whilst Tuchel might improve this incredible Dortmund side further. Juventus might be in a post-Buffon malaise in the near future, whilst Spaletti might maintain his fantastic start at Roma, and the right investment could bring back glory to Milan. Transfer bans might paradoxically help the Madrid clubs by stunting Florentino Perez’ total boneheaded lack of direction and allow Atleti’s youthful forwards to properly develop, whilst Messi and Neymar end up in jail for tax fraud. The Premier League could well continue in gloriously flawed chaos. Ligue 1 appears to be such a lost cause I can barely offer a hypothetical, to be honest, but if Leicester can win a league title…
What appears a hell of a lot more likely, unfortunately, is that this summer English clubs will continue to cannibalise the rest of Europe. Transfer fees and wages offered will be so high that clubs like Dortmund, Napoli, Roma and Atletico will be unable to keep essential talent like Higuain, Gundogan, Reus, Pjanic, Nainggolan, Gimenez and Griezmann and be forced to constantly rebuild before they can come close to a league title. Tons of other young stars like Ousmane Dembele are snapped up before getting to develop properly. This will make it easier for Juventus, Bayern, Barcelona and PSG to retain their titles — which would be their 5th, 6th, 3rd and 5th in a row respectively. As a result, the stock of the La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 will further be eroded by a lack of a title challenge. Having acquired the most revered coach in the world, Man City will finally do what all logic dictates what they should be doing, and consolidate their wealth, like Bayern, and begin winning league titles at more regular intervals, with the best youth set-up and infrastructure in England, as well as the biggest transfer budget in world football.
These are, of course, two extremes and what will happen will be somewhere in between, but even an “in between” will give the biggest clubs incentive to leave their domestic league, an arrogance that they’ve “outgrown” their competition as if that isn’t entirely of their own greed (or ambition if you’re being kind). The sad thing is that the money and power that makes them dominate is that same money and power that will give them any influence in attempting a breakaway.
Of the eight clubs left in the Champions League, six have a massive investment in the tournament, at the expense of the prestige of their domestic competition (to varying degrees). Look at the Champions League quarters this year — with Bayern and PSG expected and duly complying with their league dominance, their season’s success is defined by European Competition. Barcelona are at a level they should be aiming for at the very least the final this year, having blitzed past the best sides in Europe on their way to winning the trophy last year. Whilst being behind in the title race, yet comfortably in Champions League spots, Real Madrid’s obsession with the European Cup continues and is the only way to save an underwhelming season (as Ancelloti did two years ago), with the same applying to Atletico (especially after coming so close). City have so feebly chased this year’s title, so doing well in Europe is essential for Pellegrini.
In a sense, we’re already at the European Super League, and if the trajectory continues of what’s been happening in European football during this decade, it looks depressingly inevitable that it will be introduced in a cynical and gluttonous new format.
