How to write a hypothesis

  1. Distinguish a solid hypothesis from a time-waster, and
  2. Structure your solid hypothesis to get results and insights

The basics: The correct hypothesis format

A well-structured hypothesis provides insights whether it is proved, disproved, or results are inconclusive. You should never phrase a hypothesis as a question. It should be written as a statement that can be rejected or confirmed.

  • Changing _______ into ______ will increase [conversion goal], because:
  • Changing _______ into ______ will decrease [conversion goal], because:
  • Changing _______ into ______ will not affect [conversion goal], because:

Level up: Moving from a good to great hypothesis

Understanding what makes an idea worth testing is necessary for your optimization team.

It’s based on a science

The term ‘hypothesis’ probably isn’t foreign to you. In fact, it may bring up memories of grade-school science class; it’s a critical part of thescientific method.

  1. Collecting data and information through observation
  2. Creating tentative descriptions of what is being observed
  3. Forming hypotheses that predict different outcomes based on these observations
  4. Testing your hypotheses
  5. Analyzing the data, drawing conclusions and insights from the results
  • “Improving the clarity of the page will reduce confusion and improve [conversion goal].”

Building hypotheses to create insights

You believe you’ve identified an overall problem on your landing page (there’s a problem with clarity). Now you want to understand how individual elements contribute to the problem, and the effect these individual elements have on your users. It’s game time — now you can start designing a hypothesis that will generate insights.

  • Improving the clarity of the page will reduce confusion and improve [conversion goal].
  • Changing the wording of this CTA to set expectations for users (from “submit” to “send demo request”) will reduce confusion about the next steps in the funnel and improve order completions.
  • Changing the wording of the CTA to set expectations for users (from “submit” to “send demo request”) will reduce confusion for visitors coming from my email campaign about the next steps in the funnel and improve order completions.

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Digital ingénue. Product maker.

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Olivia

Olivia

Digital ingénue. Product maker.