The UK General Election of 2016
On the final day of the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, Prime Minister Johnson announced his intention to ask Parliament to support his call for an early general election. Subsequent to this, on Wednesday, October 12th, after a short debate, the two-thirds majority required by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act was achieved with a vote of 601 MPs to 8 and 40 abstentions (only the DUP voted against). With the UK under increasing pressure from EU leaders to invoke Article 50, Johnson chose the earliest possible date for the election — Thursday, November 24th 2016.
The Campaign
The economy, normally the top issue at every election, was yet to see any tangible effect from the EU Referendum in June (experts were warning of an impending recession but the country had quite enough of experts apparently). In fact polling showed it was the result of this referendum, and its aftermath, that was at the forefront of voters’ minds. With Boris yet to begin negotiations with the EU for the UK’s withdrawal, tensions were running high among those who had voted Leave as they questioned whether their wishes would ever be fulfilled. They were beginning to suspect that elected officials were just as bad as the unelected ones.
The Prime Minister wanted to try a second negotiation with the EU but knew it would be electoral suicide to make this public. His temporary Director of Strategy, Steve Hilton (a terrible choice as no-one could ever get hold of him), pointed out that many of the people who voted Leave in June did so because they felt their betrayed by the establishment. Letting them down now was not an option. He had a much bolder plan. Make it clear only a vote for the Conseratives would see their democratic wishes fulfilled. Boris pledged a “Day 1 Invocation of Article 50” and made it the topline policy in the Tories’ manifesto.
Labour had a similar problem. Corbyn (who had survived a leadership contest and whittled his Shadow Cabinet down to just five ministers with many portfolios. And Andy Burnham) wanted to make pushing the Article 50 button a priority. His party didn’t. This was complicated by the majority of Labour voters supporting Remain. Jeremy and his new Head of Communications and Strategy, Paul Mason (who had just replaced Seamus Milne in what was dubbed the “October Revolution”), argued that many traditional Labour heartlands had voted Leave and these were precisely the people they had to appeal to. The PLP was unmoved though and the EU wasn’t mentioned anywhere in their manifesto.
UKIP had the problem of forming coherent policies to fill the void left by the referendum result. Finding this an impossible task Farage decided to go on the offensive and argue that the delay in leaving the EU proved only UKIP could really deliver what so many had voted for. He also promised free pints for smokers to be paid for by cancelling maternity leave. Or something. I didn’t actually read the whole manifesto to be honest.
The Liberal Democrat leader, Tim Farron, knew there would be a large number of people angry about the referendum result. He offered them a second referendum. Farron made it clear this was non-negotiable in the event of coalition talks and showed this, most famously, by getting the pledge tattooed on his left arm. “Tim’s Tat” was extremely successful across social media and was memorably depicted in a Steve Bell cartoon in The Guardian showing Tim using his tattooed appendage to punch a hole in the, equally infamous, Edstone.
The SNP also pledged a second referendum (on the EU — the other second referendum’s wheels were already well in motion). Nicola Sturgeon, however, declined to get a tattoo.
And then there was Unity. A breakaway from the Labour Party led by Hilary Benn and made up of 38 other former Labour MPs, they stood for “Unity for the UK: Within and Without”. On their inception, The Sun’s headline “Too Soonity for Unity”, was generally agreed to be their worst effort for many years and was the reason many believed for the papers’ lack of influence over the voters during the campaign.
In the run up to election day opinion polls showed rising support for the Liberal Democrats as Remainers flooded to them. But no-one paid attention to polls anymore. The Lib Dems also gained support from being seen as the only centrist party given the Tory move to the right under Johnson and Labour’s perceived occupation of the left (in truth the Labour manifesto was much less left-leaning than their activists or leader made it seem). UKIP were also feeling squeezed as voters knew they couldn’t deliver an actual EU exit as the Conservatives had promised.
The Results
At 10pm on November 24th the exit poll was revealed showing an even more shocking projection than had been seen just 18 months earlier. Paddy Ashdown again promised to eat his hat if it was correct. But this time the hat would taste rather sweet.
As the night unfolded and the results rolled in it became clear a seismic shift was happening. The Lib Dems were winning seat, after seat, after seat. Those who favoured remaining in the EU had united behind Tim as their only viable option. Leavers however were split across the Conservatives, Labour and UKIP — this split only making it easier for the Lib Dems to take seats.
The Labour vote had collapsed in many areas (although they had almost obliterated the Green vote). UKIP were also facing obliteration. This bolstered the Conservatives but not enough to stop the Tim tide as it, rather inevitably, became known.
It was clear there would be no overall winner. The question in the early hours however was whether the Conservatives could remain the largest party.
By 5am it was known that they couldn’t. When the final results were in the Lib Dems had taken an astonishing 260 seats. The Conservatives suffered big losses winning just 248 and The Labour Party were destroyed returning only 49. The SNP won all 59 seats in Scotland while Unity (proving it actually wasn’t too soonity) won 20 of the 40 they contested.
Presumptive PM Farron acted quickly to talk to the SNP (who demanded an early second Scottish independence referendum)and Unity (who demanded nothing, they were just happy to be involved) and by the Saturday afternoon agreement had been reached. Prime Minister Johnson left Number 10 (speculation he would ride off into the sunset on a Boris Bike proved unfounded) and Prime Minister Farron, flanked by Deputy PM Robertson and Chancellor Benn, made a triumphant speech to the ecstatic, if somewhat disbelieving crowds.
The Aftermath
Scotland voted for independence in March 2017. The following month the second EU referendum was won by Remain with 53% of the vote (thanks mainly to Scottish voters who, not yet being officially independent, wanted to signal to Europe that they were keen to stay in the EU after independence).
And so it was that in April 2018 England, Wales & Northern Ireland found themselves governed, not only by unelected EU bureaucrats, but also by 60, effectively unelected, Scottish MPs. While this was unsatisfactory for the remaining members of the UK, the Scottish people were also left dissatisfied as the EU denied their application for membership and placed them behind Turkey in the queue.
