What’s responsible for Manchester United’s inability to control games?
Manchester United beat Newport County in their FA Cup fourth round tie, but many fans were left perplexed at how difficult the game seemed to become Erik ten Hag’s men at some point. It begs the question: why can’t they control games?
Manchester United fans have complained about their team’s inability to control games, which is understandable, especially when you see your team in a knife fight against League Two side Newport County. There are many theories as to why Erik ten Hag’s side cannot seem to comfortably get through games, but most of them are wrong. Two reasons have been put forth as to why this is the case, we’d discuss why they aren’t even close to the truth.
Reason 1: David De Gea’s poor ball-playing ability
Manchester United was a counterattacking team last season, but they’re even more of that this season. It was obvious to many fans that David De Gea was not the best ball player amongst his goalkeeper peers, but his role in the Red Devils buildup play was way overstated. Note: this is not to say the Spaniard’s ball-playing (non)ability was insignificant, but to say that he’s a key reason the team could not control games would be to overemphasize the general role of goalkeepers in possession football.
Yes, Manchester City has Ederson in goal, and Liverpool has Alisson, but you don’t need to have goalkeepers at (up to) their level of ball playing to keep the ball comfortably. De Gea completed 0 progressive passes in the whole of the 2022/23 league season. “Outrageous” “How could he be so poor!” “His ball playing is rubbish”, right?
Do you know who else had 0 progressive passes in a whole league season? Both of Chelsea’s goalkeepers last season, and Edouard Mendy in the 2021/22 season. However, the west London club averaged 59.1% possession and 62.3% possession respectively in the above-mentioned seasons.
Manchester United averaged 53.8% possession last season with De Gea Playing all 38 league games. Andre Onana came in for the Spaniard, with a reputation for being a supremely talented ball-playing goalkeeper. Good thing Man United’s average possession has now gone up. Or did it? No. No, it did not. In fact, it went down.
Manchester United now average 51.7% possession. Why did a better ball-playing goalkeeper result in even less of the ball? The reason is simple: Outfielders play more of a role in controlling games and controlling possession. More specifically centerbacks and central midfielders, but we’ll circle back to that.
Onana and De Gea’s distribution in terms of long passing, has been…the same. De Gea averaged 36% long ball completion last season, and Onana is averaging 36% long ball completion after 22 games so far this season. The volume is similar too. The former Inter Milan goalie is averaging 5.2 completed long balls per game, compared to De Gea’s 4.9 last season. Again, this is not to make the case that better composure in the goalkeeper is not useful, but control of the game is not achieved with the keeper’s composure.
Reason 2: Bruno Fernandes’s possession losses
The other, even sillier, reason is that the red Mancunians cannot control the ball because of how “careless” Bruno Fernandes is in possession. This take suggests an inability to even understand the role Fernandes is supposed to play in a football team. At least one player needs to have the license to “force the issue”.
Every team needs one. Most teams have one. All successful football teams that score many goals have one. Bruno Fernandes consistently leads the league in many of the tasks relevant to his role: shot and goal creation. His assist numbers vary from Kevin De Bruyne’s because the Belgium star has much better finishers on his team.
It is important to understand how good Fernandes has been. Last season, according to FBref and Sofascore, the Portugal maestro led the league in chances created per game (3.3), the volume of big chances created (32), the volume of chances created (119), and Shot-Creating Actions (SCAs) (219). He only got eight assists, six of which were to Marcus Rashford.
Fernandes’s shot and goal production is not just the best at his club or in the league, but one of the best in Europe. He is a master of his craft. Emphasis on his craft. Fernandes is supposed to ply his trade in the final third, not in the middle or defensive third, which is where possession football is built.
What then is the cause?
Remember when I said centerbacks and central midfielders are more responsible for controlling possession? Yeah. Playing the kind of football that many Man United fans desire is not going to happen by chance, but by intention.
The first question is: Does Erik ten Hag even want to play possession football?
When a team wants to play possession football, every key player in the team relevant to that task plays to keep the ball first. Key players relevant to the task of keeping possession are the centerbacks and central midfielders. These players have to be good passers of the ball while having the composure to complete passes under pressure. The holding midfielder is key to this, as the midfield is where control of the game is established. It is no surprise that as high as 48% of all Man City’s touches are in the middle third of the pitch. Brighton’s last season was 46%. The Red Devils? 42%.
The obvious example of a possession side is Manchester City. Man City has averaged the highest possession per game (66.7%) since Pep Guardiola walked through the door eight years ago. He has achieved this with careful recruitment of players that fit this objective. Let’s look at some numbers. Walk with me.
Last season, according to Sofascore, Man City’s top five passers of the ball per game (by volume) included a holding midfielder and four centerbacks (some of which played as fullbacks for a large chunk of the season). All five of them averaged over 90% passing accuracy, with the lowest — unsurprisingly — being the holding midfielder (91%).
This ensured that buildup went smoothly, as Guardiola’s men were able to play through pressure very well and get the ball to the midfield where Rodri also made sure they kept possession of the ball. Note that these players leading the passing chart are regular starters.
Of Man City’s top five long passers, two of those players averaged over 70% long ball accuracy, and all of them averaged over 55%. This is why City can control games the way they do: when they have the ball it is very difficult to dispossess them. This was also the case with Arsenal last season, as their top five passers included the starting holding midfielder and the two starting centerbacks and they also averaged over 90% passing accuracy, except for the holding midfielder who was also the lowest (88%). Two of them also averaged over 55% long ball accuracy.
Man United’s top five passers last season included three centerbacks and one midfielder. The issue is that the only one of those players that even crossed the 90% accuracy mark is Victor Lindelof. Unfortunately, Lindelof was not a regular starter for Manchester United as he started just 14 games and played 20 games in all. The midfielder who appeared on the list, Christian Eriksen, was supposed to be a holding midfielder but is, in fact, an attacking midfielder playing as a holding midfielder.
Eriksen averaged 85% passing accuracy, and his central midfield partner, who was actually brought in to be the holding midfielder, Casemiro, averaged 79% possession. Do you have any idea how chaotic it is for a holding midfielder to average 79% passing accuracy? That is the accuracy you would expect from a creative midfielder. Fernandes averaged 78%!
Lisandro Martinez was the defender Manchester United fans said was the most composed passer and integral to buildup, but even he did not manage 90% passing accuracy (87%), and worse, he averaged 41% long ball accuracy. If that is the player integral to buildup, the team is not going to keep much of the ball. Combine this with the fact that no one in central midfield can effectively recycle the ball to ensure the team keeps it, and you have, uh…Manchester United.
This season, those problems have not gone away. Four of Man United’s highest-volume passers are players who haven’t started the majority of the 22 games Man United has played so far. Looking at that list this season reveals several issues.
The first is that Fernandes — the team’s chief creator — is one of the top five passers per game. The second issue is that, again, Casemiro is the holding midfielder on the list, but he averages 83% of his completed passes. The third issue is that Martinez and Lindelof are the centerbacks on the list, but while they averaged over 90% passing accuracy, they have not played a lot.
The fourth problem is that the central midfielder whom Man United fans want to start every week, Kobbie Mainoo, is also averaging 83% passing accuracy. The fifth problem problem is that no centerback has started more than 10 games, and some of them are averaging long ball accuracies are low as 38% and 44%. Possession football? I would guess not.
The only player who looks like he would be useful to Manchester United in terms of keeping possession of the ball is Sofyan Amrabat. The loanee arrived in the summer and has averaged an impressive 82% long ball accuracy, though his general passing accuracy is 87%. No player that plays consistently for the Manchester club in key positions relevant to keeping possession, can put up the numbers needed there. THIS is the issue.
Ten Hag’s men do not have the players equipped to play the kind of football many fans desire. No, David de Gea was not the main stumbling block to possession football and controlling games. No, Fernandes is not the reason Manchester United cannot keep the ball (please don’t make that claim outside). Let’s assume that ten Hag indeed wants to play possession football, he could give different instructions to his players, but then they’d have to be able to execute them.
Can Man United’s defenders and midfielders play under pressure? It’s not enough to just complete your passes, can you complete them when Douglas Luiz is hot on your heels? The answer will determine whether you can play possession football.
Manchester United fans assume the team is capable of controlling games and it’s just particular players that are preventing it from happening, but the truth is that Fernandes is playing the role he’s supposed to play in any football team: create. Holding midfielders and centerbacks are responsible for keeping the ball and recycling it, as they would have the most touches of the ball every game.
Fernandes making the fifth most passes for the Red Devils this season suggests that he has been forced to get involved in proceedings earlier than he should have. At no point in the last three seasons has Kevin De Bruyne been among the top 10 passers per game, at his club. This is because Manchester City has competent people operating in the phases of play that require players to make many passes. De Bruyne has never needed to drop deep to pick up the ball to distribute. Fernandes has needed to play that role several times. Way too many times.
In conclusion, Erik ten Hag knows what he needs to do if Manchester United is to keep as much of the ball as some fans demand. Manchester City, Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, and other clubs that want to play possession football have gone about it intentionally, especially in the way they have recruited players.
Casemiro, Mason Mount, and Eriksen are not players who will help keep the ball, and they have never been. Now that you know what the issue is, you know where to direct your ire when next Man United is finding it difficult to comfortably outplay a lower-league side.
Special thanks to Sofascore and FBRef for providing detailed, useful statistics for this research.
