Mariners Top 5 Round Mock Draft
Going into this, I wanted to go into this with a game plan in mind. When drafting, you need to balance a couple things. The main factors are where you’re picking, the best players available, farm system needs, and your bonus pool.
That being said, let me say this: I’m not going to factor in the bonus pool right now, and won’t do underslot/overslot stuff here, at least, not yet. Those tactics are hard to predict, even though the Mariners typically have gone over-slot to grab falling preps in later rounds (Michael Morales, Walter Ford, AJ Izzi, Aidan Smith), I’d rather keep the picks chalk in terms of when a player will be available, because that gives you a better idea of where and when certain players project to be available. I’m also not going to project a top 10 player falling to Seattle, because that’s disingenuous and impossible to predict.
In terms of what kinds of players I target in this Mock Draft, I try to balance the historical patterns of Seattle and who they like to attack, as well as organizational needs and strengths. So here’s my brief analysis on those, first.
First note, remember, if you Draft a College player, they don’t fulfill a need at the Major League Level immediately; you draft a college player, they’ll more likely than not be ready by about 2026 or 2027, not 2024 or 2025.
Their needs, in order:
- Impact starting pitching
- Probability on the position player side of the ball
- Catching depth
That being said, evaluating recent patterns and developmental strengths is important, too. In recent years, the attack plan has been mostly based around HS hitters in early rounds, and lottery ticket college arms in the later rounds. They’ve taken a couple HS pitchers between ‘21–’23 (Michael Morales, Walter Ford, AJ Izzi), and the results haven’t been great so far, though high school arms take more time to develop than any other demographic, so some benefit of the doubt can be given there. The college hitting crop has been rather slim pickings, pretty much regulated to Tyler Locklear and Ben Williamson (and Williamson was heavy under-slot, got 4th Round money).
With all that in mind, you can look through their selections the last three years and find some patterns, and be able to come to some conclusions when it comes to the kind of guys Seattle likes to target in each respective demographic. They’ve clearly got their “type” with college arms. You can probably get a feel for it by reading through the guys I project to them.
As I’ll do more of this throughout the Draft cycle, I’ll shift both the players and the approach quite a bit, as where the strengths of the Draft are and positions players find themselves in change. Also, it’s boring to repeat players. So, after a long prologue (apologies), here’s the Mock Draft.
15th Overall (1st Round):
Trey Yesavage (East Carolina RHP)
Age on Draft Day: 21 years old 0 Months
6' 4", 225 lbs
Yesavage is the singular college starter in the middle range of the first round that provides both a high floor as a guy with a workhorse frame and four quality pitches that he throws for strikes, and also ceiling, as he’s quietly got some of the best stuff in the class.
Yesavage attacks from a steep, over-the-top release. His fastball velocity wavered as the year went on and he got tired a little. He was sitting 93–6, touching 98 MPH early in the year, but that fluctuated a bit, and he’d sit low 90s on occasion. It was his first year in the rotation, going 76 innings after just going 28 innings in a bullpen role the year before, so I’m not too concerned about that.
His fastball has tons of carry and some notable arm-side run, but because he works so downhill with it, it’s almost like a bowling-ball sinker at the bottom of the zone, and its a really hard pitch to barrel up. 55 grade pitch, and one with some utility and plus command. His extremely downhill approach angle nullifies some of the ride he gets, but it’s still an extremely effective pitch no matter if he throws it at the bottom or top of the zone.
Yesavage’s got a slider in the mid to upper 80s which has varying horizontal movement, but it also has two-plane break when he gets to the side of it a bit more and gets more sweep. When he gets more sweep and he differentiates the shape from the curveball, it’s a nasty pitch that’s easily plus and makes hitters look silly. He stays out of the danger zones with the pitch, limits damage, and gets tons of value off the pitch.
He’s also got a banger, true 12–6 curveball in the low 80s with some depth, and the pitch garnered massive whiff rates, especially when it was firmer. The shape and velocity are very advanced, and it’s an easy plus pitch, though the command of curveballs are usually rather fickle at this level, and that remains the case with Yesavage’s curve, though it didn’t get hit at all last year despite him not always leaving it in the most opportune places.
Both breakers are strong pitches, but the fact that their shape can be so similar can be concerning. His fourth pitch is a splitter that actually has some serious helium. It’s in the low 80s with some late sinking action to the arm side that I think really has a chance to eat given how strong his ability to work at the bottom of the zone with his fastball is. The important thing with Yesavage is how he gets serious value from all four of his pitches, which, coupled with a starter’s frame, delivery, and above-average command, is not something you’ll find often in college baseball at any level.
Because I’d be picking Yesavage 15th when I have him ranked 20th on my board (heavily suggest you check that out, link below), as well as him being a college guy, I’d probably be able to save a couple hundred thousand dollars to use for later rounds (slot value should be in the $4.8–5.2M range), but we’re keeping it chalk, so this’ll just be slot.
56th Overall (2nd Round):
Cole Mathis (1B/3B, College of Charleston)
Age on Draft Day: 20 years, 11 Months
6' 1", 210 lbs, R/R
While Seattle hasn’t taken a lot of college bats at the top of their drafts in recent years, you can glean some patterns when it comes to what they like. The most obvious one is power. The second one is producing with a wood bat. Cole Mathis fits in this second round range rather snugly, and fits a lot of what Seattle historically likes with college hitters.
Mathis is hardly going to the most sexy school in the country. The College of Charleston isn’t anything close to a P5 school in any way, but Mathis broke out, and broke out loudly on the Cape this summer. He was a juggernaut in the CCBL, one of the most dangerous offensive forces in the league. Mathis actually posted the best numbers of his career, slashing .318/.381/.667 with 11 home runs and 10 doubles in just 38 games. He made a ton of contact, and while the walk rate was on the lower end, that didn’t reflect Mathis’ professional plate discipline.
What’s interesting is that Mathis hit 2 more home runs in 38 games on the Cape than he did in 56 games in the CAA, which seems like it should be reversed, but Mathis only got about a dozen at-bats his freshman year, so he’s probably just now growing into that game power. With a metal bat, worse competition, and further development, it’s a foregone conclusion Mathis will be smashing home runs like he was on the Cape this spring.
Mathis has an easy plus feel for contact, posting ridiculously high contact rates alongside strong chase rates and easy plus power that has begun translating into over-the-fence power. His exit velocities are on par with those of Tommy White, Nick Kurtz, and Carson Benge. To be frank, Mathis might be something of a special bat, maybe something akin to Brandon Belt at the end of the day.
Mathis also has some traits on the mound, a righty up to 96 with a decent breaker and above-average command, but teams are quick to ditch a two-way player’s weaker side when they get to pro ball, and Mathis is a bat. He’s is a fringe runner who has the arm for third base, but lacks the range and footwork. He’s almost definitely a 1B.
Seattle loves guys that hit with a wood bat. Back in 2020, they picked Zach DeLoach in Round 2 exclusively because he hit with a wood bat (given how he did nothing in college), and in 2022 and 2023, Seattle took Tyler Locklear and Ben Williamson, who both have a lot of similarities to Mathis (specifically Locklear). Mathis projects to arrive in the majors by 2026/27, and provides a sturdy floor to balance out some of the high-risk bats that project to arrive in that time frame (Aidan Smith, Tai Peete, Lazaro Montes, Jonny Farmelo, Colt Emerson), while not sacrificing impact.
The small-conference thing isn’t really something Mathis can change, but his stint on the Cape was very legit. That, and how he tests at the Combine will be extremely important for a player in his situation. Similar to Yesavage, because he’s a college player, you could probably get him for a little bit of a haircut and save a hundred thousand dollars or two, but we’re in a beautiful utopia where everything’s unicorns, rainbows, and signing bonuses of exact slot value. Mathis will also be 20 years old on Draft Day, which will help him on models a fair bit.
93rd Overall (3rd Round):
Chase Harlan (HS 3B/C OF)
Central Bucks East HS (PA), Clemson Commit
Age on Draft Day: 18 Years 0 Months
6' 3", 205 lbs, R/R
Commitment: Clemson
Chase Harlan is a personal favorite of mine, a physical, 6’ 3” right-handed hitting, cold weather bat that will barely 18 on Draft Day, really giving him a real extra edge on models.
I’m a big fan of Harlan’s swing and set-up. Harlan’s got some of the best hand and bat speed in the class. Harlan’s got a longer swing, but it’s a quiet and relaxed set-up in the box, the bat stays in the zone, and he rarely expands the zone. He has a very quick and small leg kick normally, but he goes no-stride with two strikes and just lets his natural hand speed do all the work for him. He’s able to generate leverage to all fields. There’s a lot to like with the offensive upside here with a robust approach, above-average feel for contact, and plus power.
Harlan’s a bit of a tweener at third base, lacking range and agility, and is more likely a corner outfielder. It projects as 40 grade speed. That being said, he’s got an absolute hose that translates seamlessly into right field, and it’s a borderline 70 grade arm out in right field.
Even though Harlan’s in all likelihood a corner bat, look out, because this is a guy who showcases everything you want to see out of a prep in terms of the offensive skillset, and he might really, really hit. He looks like the prototypical right field, middle of the order, Jayson Werth type of offensive threat if development goes right, the ability to hit for some average, walk some, and swat 30 dingers a year.
Because Harlan will be barely 18 on Draft Day, and is a cold weather bat with a significant up arrow over the last year, I think you’re looking at a guy who has a very bright future ahead of him. You’ll probably need to go a little over-slot on Draft Day to keep the high school kid from going to Clemson, but I’d imagine they’d save enough with Yesavage and Mathis to be able to do that comfortably if we were playing with money.
126th Overall (4th Round):
Janzen Keisel (RHP, Oklahoma State)
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years 5 Months
6' 4", 185 lbs
Keisel fits Seattle’s pretty common late-round college arm lottery ticket: strong athletes with lacking command, and loud stuff from low launches with some feel to spin it.
The book on Keisel is simple, and it starts and ends with his release height and the fastball. The fastball typically sits 91–94, topping out at 97 with tons of riding life through the zone, and he gets tons of value when throwing the pitch at the top of the zone. It’s an outlier pitch that generates tons of whiff. It’s not too dissimilar in concept from a Paul Sewald fastball, where he throws it from a low release point and super flat approach angle, but the arm slot is actually a traditional 3/4 slot. The shape and results of the pitch are nothing short of resounding, and he really spins the ball, too. Despite it being mostly low 90s, there’s more in the tank here, and can realistically see him sitting mid 90s in a bullpen role in the majors. It’s got the makings of a 70 grade pitch when it's all said and done.
Keisel’s secondary pitches all hold potential, but are still fairly raw and need some development and polish. He seems to manipulate the shape of his breakers, but they typically flash some sweeping life, and he can spin them pretty darn well. He’s got a changeup that needs more work, and he seems to lower his slot and arm speed when throwing his breaking balls, which needs to get ironed out some, as well as more clearly differentiating his breakers.
Keisel has notable reliever risk. He’s a strong athlete and quick mover down the mound, but he has violence at release and some head whack. He walked a nauseating 20.6% of the batters he faced his sophomore year at Oklahoma State in 18 innings, which is an extreme red flag, but the strike-throwing got better in 21 innings on the Cape (though it was still a 10.9% walk rate). I’d say he’s probably a reliever more than anything, but there’s some stuff to like and work with here. He’s very similar to Reds’ closer Alexis Diaz in a lot of ways. Keisel’s stock is rather volatile, and he could be anything from a top 3 round pick to a 7th-10th round pick depending on where the command and secondary stuff goes. He’s got the traits to rise if he can reign in the command and violence.
156th Overall (5th Round):
Brandon Neely (RHP, Florida)
Age on Draft Day: 21 Years 0 Months
6' 3", 205 lbs
Neely is posed to be Florida’s closer this year, but the physical righty definitely has the makings of a starter when it comes to the arsenal, strike-throwing, and athleticism, and I’d expect whatever organization takes him in the Draft will have him start in the minors.
Neely has a strong frame and attacks hitters from a high 3/4 slot. He’s got a bit of a cross-body delivery, and doesn’t get much extension down the mound. His movements are very intuitive and there’s not much effort at release, though there’s some head whack when he throws his fastball, specifically.
Neely is primarily fastball, curveball, and slider, all of which are strong pitches. The curveball is an easy 60 grade, and one of the better curveballs in the country, in the high 70s and low 80s with depth, sweep, and very good feel (it might be a sweeper). The slider is a shorter, firmer breaker, an average offering in the mid to upper 80s. The fastball (a two-seamer) typically sits in the low to mid 90s, topping out at 97 with late fade to the arm-side. Neely attacks from a flatter approach angle that makes the pitch play up despite the two-seam movement, and get tons of value at the top of the zone.
Neely has average command and control and is very good at staying in and around the zone and throwing competitive pitches at the bare minimum. He’s got a good feel for throwing strikes with all his pitches. He didn’t throw his changeup much, but it’s pretty firm in the upper 80s and tunnels off the fastball very well, has the ability to be an average pitch.
Despite being consigned to a relief role in college, Neely absolutely has the capability to go 5+ innings, and he’s a very fun ball of clay. The last couple years, we’ve seen Seattle lean heavily into the ground-ball heavy sinker-baller market, both at the Major League level and in the Draft, last year especially.
Neely fits the profile of the high-level athlete, low release, high spin sinker baller, and there’s an outside chance he finds himself in a #4/5 role in the majors as a ground ball, weak contact specialist like Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt. If not, he’s got a pretty steady role as a reliable multi-inning middle relief guy. While he lacks the elite stuff of a typical high-leverage arm, he might be able to fit more of the set-up man role that guys like Adam Ottavino or Alex Colome.
Neely is very intense and a consummate competitor on the mound, intent on mowing down whoever’s at the plate. While it’s odd to say about a pitcher, he’s a genuine spark plug with a contagious competitive drive. He’s got the kind of edge you should want in your organization.
Summary:
I leaned into college arms a lot in this Draft, which wasn’t quite my intention going into it. I wanted to grab a college catcher to give the system some more depth in a place of weakness currently, but there’s a lot of college catchers I like in this Draft, but none that I love (at least, not yet), and I liked the college arms a lot more, feeling comfortable pressing hard into that demographic given that it’s both an organizational need and developmental strength.
If you were to hypothetically insert these guys into the farm system right now, Yesavage would rank 7th, Mathis would rank 10th, Harlan would rank 14th, Keisel would rank 19th, and Neely would rank 21st, just for some perspective of what that’d do to the farm.
I mostly prioritized college in this Draft (against my natural tendencies), because while I really wanted to grab more high school talent in this Draft, the strength of this Draft, especially at the top, is college talent, and finding a college arm that projects to the rotation in the first two rounds was prudent given their farm system needs.
Yesavage is the pitching depth they need, and Mathis provides higher probability than the glut of toolsy teenagers between the DSL and High A that currently populate the system. Harlan isn’t quite the cup of coffee they’ve gone after the last couple years, but the balance of the offensive profile is very rare for a high school hitter. Keisel and Neely are both college lottery tickets, though they’re very different stylistically.
I avoided the high school arms because Seattle’s (admittedly very shallow) recent track record with young, high school arms hasn’t gone to plan so far (Michael Morales, AJ Izzi, Tyler Gough, Walter Ford, to an extent). That being said, I’m sure I’ll project a high school arm to them at some point over the Draft Cycle as I continue to do this, as the high school arms get very exciting in Round 2 (just a note, this is a very good year to have a Comp A pick).
Again, I’ll mix around different ideas and strategies as the cycle goes along. At this point in the cycle, these Mocks are simply about perceived fit based on where the players project. With that in mind, as it gets closer and closer to the Draft, it might be about what players I might be hearing connected to the Mariners.
