Seattle Mariners Top 30 Prospects

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Notes:

• This a very talented farm system chock full of young position players who either can hit, or have every ability to possibly hit in the future.
• There’s not much certainty and floor beyond the top two prospects.
• The top of the system is pretty much exclusively young hitters, and only one of who has seen Double A.
• The near-MLB talent is lacking. No players in the top 10 project to make an “impact” in 2024. The highest ranking prospect who projects to do that is 12th, and beyond that, the ’24 wave is pretty much just potential bench pieces and relievers.
• The pitching talent is better than I thought, and there’s some upside there, but lots of reliever risk, and a lot needs to go right there, and a some guys like Jeter Martinez, Cole Phillips, and Walter Ford are very far away.
• Talent-wise, this is one of the better farm systems in baseball, but in reality, it’s not quite a top farm due to the lack of near-MLB caliber talent.
• This system is a powder keg ready to explode. There’s close to a dozen young players past the more well-known ones (Locklear, Ford, Young, Gonzalez) on the cusp of breakouts, like Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo, Aidan Smith, Jeter Martinez, Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Felnin Celesten, Michael Arroyo, plus more.

1. Colt Emerson (SS, L/R)

7/20/2005, 18 years old

6’ 2”, 200 lbs

Drafted 22nd Overall, John Glenn HS (OH)

Single A, 2026 ETA

55 FV

I knew the top prospect would come down to Young or Emerson when I started this, and it wasn’t nearly as close as I thought it’d be. To be perfectly honest, Emerson has a chance to be something special.

Drafted out of John Glenn HS, Colt Emerson was about a week and half from turning 18 when Seattle selected him at 22nd overall. He went to the Complex League, and then A ball, and then, well, the tear he went on really showed how special he could be.

As a fresh 18-year old (in his 17 year old season, mind you), Emerson hit .374/.496/.550 in 24 games, with a 14.9% walk rate and a 17.5% strikeout rate split between the Complex League and A Ball. If you include the California League postseason, however, in 35 games, you gets a comical .405/.637/.576 slash line, with a 14% walk rate and 16.2% strikeout rate. 35 games isn’t a full season, but it’s also definitely not a small sample size. This is a guy who has immense feel for contact, hard contact, and the barrel, while sticking to his guns in the box, not limiting chase fantastically.

Emerson has a loose, easy, and athletic swing with quick hands. He’s an athlete in the box. His swing hits everything in every area of the zone, and hits it hard. You might look at the slash line and the fact he hit only 2 home runs in 35 games (which isn’t bad, either), but Emerson showed high-end feel for the fat part of the bat, posting above-average exit velocities for the Major League level while just turning 18 in A Ball. He hit a lot of wall-scrapers from gap to gap.

I would also like to add, hitting like he did in the playoffs, the ability to slow his heartbeat down and come up in the clutch, that speak volumes to both the person and the player, and not something anyone should discount. He was putting up these numbers against the best teams and pitchers in the California League, not mooching his stats off the bottom feeders. Colt is an easy 60 hitter with 55 power.

Defensively, I haven’t seen quite enough to make a judgement, but people like his chances to stick at shortstop. He’s certainly twitchy, but in terms of the overall quickness and foot speed, I’ll need to watch him more, but there’s no reason to say he’s a second or third baseman long-term until he proves he’s not a shortstop. Even if he’s a second or third baseman, or, hell, a corner guy in the bottom 1st percentile outcome, the bat profiles anywhere. This guy absolutely rakes. He’d fit somewhere in the 30–45 overall range for my money, and look out, because this guy might be top 10 prospect in baseball by the end of the year.

2. Cole Young (SS, L/R)

7/29/2003, 20 years old

6’ 1”, 180 lbs

Drafted 21st Overall in 2022 Draft, North Allegheny HS (PA)

High A, 2025 ETA

55 FV

Young’s carrying tool is simple: it’s everything. It’s his polish. It’s his smooth left-handed swing geared for doubles from gap to gap. It’s his incredible innate feel for contact. Yes, it’s a hit-over-power approach, but it’s also an incredibly patient approach, chasing 15% of the time, but not to the detriment of passiveness.

Young showcases plus or better feel for contact to all fields, and has showed everything you like to see out of a hitter: the ability to not give in against lefties, the ability to hit any pitch in any part of the zone, the ability to hit the ball where it’s pitched. Young makes hitting look easy, and checks off pretty much every box possible in the batters box.

The raw power is average, but because of his contact-oriented attack, it’s easier to project 45 grade game power, with the possibility of him tapping into it much more often than we’re projecting. Guys like Young, who have such an advanced feel to hit and feel for the strike zone have a tendency to grow into more game power.

Defensively, Young’s an above-average athlete and runner with good footwork. He’s sticks at shortstop as an average defender with an above-average arm. He’s shown the ability to make some tough throws and plays. He’d be more than fine with a shift to 2B or 3B, and would probably shine defensively there, but the bat would fit better at 2B.

Overall, Young is much more a sum-of-his-parts guy with offensive polish than he is a star with massive tools. That being said, he’s among the best bets in the minor-leagues to be an average or better regular inside of two years, and maybe a bit better than that. Cole Young fits in the 35–55 range overall for my money.

3. Harry Ford (C, R/R)

2/21/2003, 21 years old

5’ 10”, 200 lbs

Drafted 12th Overall in 2021 Draft, North Cobb HS (GA)

High A, 2025 ETA

50+ FV

Definitely the most famous prospect the Mariners have, Ford’s profile has less star potential than most people give it credit for, and his value is mostly driven by how many different ways he could realistically get to the majors.

Ford is unique, if nothing else, simply because he’s a catcher who’s also a definitive plus athlete and runner. He’s shown some willingness to utilize his speed in games, but not at the detriment or risk of his body just for flashy numbers. Defensively, Ford’s a bit of a mixed bag, but he’s young, flexible, and athletic. His blocking improved some, and his arm accuracy improved some, too. He’s not a guaranteed catcher, but with young guys, sometimes it just clicks with the snap of a finger, so I’d give him a 50/50 shot at being about average.

If catching doesn’t work out, I’d like Seattle to try him out in center field, where his speed and 55 arm will certainly play with enough reps, as well as the fact that I’d rather avoid the infield, where Ford would have to sync his internal clock, get more proficient at fielding hot-shot ground balls, etc. If you have the athleticism to play CF, it’s a simpler position to learn, and I’d like to try and keep Ford up the middle, and not force a corner, where he’d have to hit.

Offensively, the numbers don’t really jump off the page. He certainly hasn’t disappointed, but also hasn’t exploded in this pro career. He’s mostly held steady, which is fine, but I’m personally still waiting for the breakout, and I have some qualms about the offensive profile.

He doesn’t chase, maintaining a 15% chase rate, which is very good, but a 39% swing percentage isn’t. Ford’s much more passive than patient, and only posts average-ish contact rates when he does swing. The exit velocities are below average, and Ford’s physically maxed out, but his swing’s built for pull-side loft and he has plus bat speed. I’d call it 45 raw power, 55 game power, in the 17–23 HR range. He has fringe-average contact skills, but the hit tool’s a 55 because of the chase rates, though he needs to get more aggressive. Major League Pitchers, or, hell, even Double A pitcher can throw strikes when a batter isn’t swinging. He knows the strike zone very well, he just needs to take chances more often, simple as that.

As intriguing as Ford is, he needs to start turning these tools into skills. As a 21 year old going into Double A, I want to start to see some certainty. Whether it’s the fact that he can hit, or the fact that he can catch, or something else. He still has tons of upside, but that might ultimately be tampered after this year depending on how it goes. He needs to show more polish, and Double A pitchers aren’t anything to sniff at, either.

That being said, if Ford comes up in two years and ends up being a .220/.340/.400 hitter with average catching defense and 20 stolen bases, that’s probably a 3–5 WAR player. Ford doesn’t have to be the five-tool, star-level, J.T. Realmuto catcher because, to be perfectly honest, that’s the 90th percentile outcome. He doesn’t need to be a star hitter with a 140 wRC+. He just has to do enough, but he still has a ways to go.

Ford would fit somewhere in the 40–60 range overall for me.

4. Lazaro Montes (1B/DH, L/R)

10/22/2004, 19 years old

6’ 4”, 240 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2022, out of Cuba

Single A, 2027 ETA

50 FV

Montes’ profile is as sweet and simple as it gets, and is summarized by one word: power.

Montes is a massive human being. He’s listed at 6’ 4” 240 lbs (ignore the report that said he was 6’ 7”), and he has no defensive value. He’s presently a lumbering 30 speed that’ll probably either hold steady or decrease as he ages. He’s a 30 defender in the outfield if they keep him out there, and projects pretty easily to a 1B/DH role.

The first thing to mention with Lazaro Montes is how, at 18 years old, he posted a monstrous 118.4 MPH exit velocity. For reference, that exit velocity would’ve ranked the sixth highest in Major League Baseball last year. The average age in Major League Baseball is about 28–29 years old. So, Montes put up an elite max exit velocity, with a wood bat, up there with guys 10 years his senior.

That power also showed up to all fields during the season. This is what 40 home run, 70 grade power looks like. Now, having elite power at that age is one thing, but we’re talking about a bat-only player that’s very far away. That kind of power isn’t nothing, but you need more than that.

Montes has a long, violent swing, and a lot of zone to cover as a consequence of his large frame. In 2022, Montes struck out 33.2% of the time in the DSL, which was an extremely concerning line. However, in 2023, Montes came out and hit for more power, made much more contact, and chased much less while playing in much harsher environments.

The swing and miss still was hardly great, a 25% strikeout rate between the two levels, but that came with an 18% walk rate and a 150 and 165 wRC+ between the Complex League and A Ball, and he was 18 years old, three years younger than the average player at A Ball when he put up those numbers. I’d still project him as a 40–45 hit tool guy, but if he makes it to the big leagues as a 40 hit tool guy, he’s Kyle Schwarber, and young enough to surpass that.

I’d say Montes would fit somewhere in the 80–110 range overall for me.

5. Tyler Locklear (1B, R/R)

11/24/2000, 23 years old

6’ 1”, 210 lbs

Drafted 58th Overall in 2022 Draft, VCU

Double A, late 2024 ETA

50 FV

Lockear’s a divisive player, a corner-only, first-base/DH only glove, Locklear has to hit to provide value, and I say he has a chance of doing just that.

Offensively, it’s a very fun profile. Locklear is a guy who absolutely pummels the ball to all fields, and is much more of a power hitter than a slugger. He wants fastballs away from him, that’s his happy zone, as is the case for most right-handed hitters. It’s plus power to all fields with a fantastic feel for the barrel, and Locklear has a chance of hitting 30 or more home runs at the Major-League level. Locklear is patient, staying in his zone, but he isn’t passive, and absolutely hammers mistakes when he’s given them. On top of that, he’s showcased above-average feel to hit, and has a chance to hit .270 at the big-league level.

It’s a very balanced approach, and has a bit of everything. This looks like a guy who can do some of everything, hit for average with a good feel for contact, get on base with a good feel for the strike zone, and slug to all fields. The pure offensive profile is one that’s really only rivaled by the very best prospects in baseball.

The biggest issue with Locklear isn’t necessarily his swing, but a certain aspect of his load. The swing itself is perfectly fine. His hands are higher, but he leverages his bat speed and has a super direct path to the zone. The biggest issue is that right before he starts his swing, he has a pre-swing jerk that tilts the bat head more towards the pitcher before he begins his swing, kind of like the hand load Gary Sheffield employed.

Such a pre-swing jerk isn’t great, and usually is indicative of a guy who’ll end up struggling to catch up to velocity up and in, and sure enough, Locklear does struggle with that a fair bit. That’s an issue that’ll be exposed more at the higher levels, but, to be perfectly honest, most right-handed hitters struggle with hard stuff inside, and it’s hardly an Achilles heel for Locklear.

Up and in to righties is probably the hardest part of the zone to locate with any consistency, and Locklear’s hardly been incompetent when it comes to handling stuff in that zone; it’s just somewhere he struggles with a bit more. He’s clearly shown the ability to be able to catch up to velocity in that quadrant of the zone from time to time. That hand load is a concern, but we’ve seen players with much worse swings succeed at the major league level. True talent breaks through, and Locklear has it.

While Locklear is a 1B/DH bat, he’s the second best pure bat in the system, and offensively, you might be looking at something pretty fun here. Locklear’s close to a top 100 prospect for me, in the 90–120 range. I can understand the excitement here, but I can also understand some apprehension.

6. Felnin Celesten (SS, S/R)

9/15/2005, 18 years old

6’ 1”, 175 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2023 out of D.R.

Hasn’t played, 2028 ETA

45+ FV

A guy I haven’t watched, and pretty much no one else has watched much of, Celesten unfortunately didn’t play at all due to visa issues and an ill-timed hamstring injury that cut into the end of his season.

That being said, Celesten’s bag of tools is fascinating, being called one of the best international shortstops since guys like Wander Franco and Marco Luciano upon signing. A switch hitter that has tons of twitch, Celesten is a very strong athlete and runner, and projects to stay at shortstop in the long run, flashing serious power potential with a sweet swing.

The upside is pretty monstrous here, but again, he had a lost year this last year, and pretty much nobody has seen him play recently. He’s got a long ways to go before he’s anything certain, but there’s something akin to super-star upside if it breaks right, or one of the better prospects in baseball.

The only “hole” in Celesten’s game is one that every internation hitter has: he hasn’t consistently seen velocity and premium stuff. But that’s much more of a nitpick than an actual red flag, and this is as premium of a guy as you’ll pretty much ever get from an international class.

7. Gabriel Gonzalez (LF/RF, R/R)

1/4/2004, 20 years old

5’ 10”, 185 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2021 out of Venezuela

High A, 2026 ETA

45 FV

Gabby’s prospect status is mostly led that he’s hit at every level he’s played at. Signed out of Venezuela in 2021, Gabby has absolutely hit the ground running, mashing through the DSL in 2021, the Complex League in 2022, and A Ball in 2023 until, finally, as a 19 year old in High A (which is a solid three and a half years younger than the average player at that level), after a hot stretch to begin his High A tenure, Gabby struggled down the stretch, finishing with a more than adequate struggle down the stretch.

Gabby’s prospect status is mostly carried by his polish, the combination of the hit and power. As a teenager, he hit 18 home runs (which, mind you, was aided by two rather hitter-friendly ballparks in Modesto and Everett), and struck out 16% of the time. The issue comes with a very high chase rate, almost at 40%, and a 6.7% walk rate, which is a common issue with a lot of young guys with superior hit tools at such a young age, where they feel they can hit everything. Despite the high home run totals, Gabby only posted exit velocity numbers in the average to above-average range, and there’s not tons of projection left in the frame.

Defensively, Gabby’s already in a corner, and projects as an above-average defender in either left or right field. He’s a fringey runner, but makes good decisions, tracks fly balls well, and has an above-average arm.

To be honest, it’s tough to project a right-handed hitting, corner outfielder glove, who doesn’t have massive raw power, and chases like Gabby does. There’s not many cases of that archetype experiencing prolonged success throughout Major League Baseball’s history. But hitting like he has at every level isn’t something you can discount, and I’d expect Gabby to be a top 100 prospect by midseason.

8. Jonny Farmelo (CF, L/R)

9/9/2004, 19 years old

6’ 2”, 205 lbs

Drafted 29th Overall in 2023 Draft, Westfield HS (VA)

Single A, 2027 ETA

45 FV

Farmelo has explosive tools, an absolute burner, 70 runner with power to all fields. In one of the few games he played professionally in 2023, he absolutely barreled up a fastball to the opposite-field for a home run, and it was loud contact. As he matures, there’s a chance he slows down a step and is simply a plus runner, but that speed will mostly stay with him.

Farmelo has the speed and athleticism, alongside a 55 arm that projects to stick in center field for the long term. How good of a defender he is there is something I’ll have to better determine as I see more of him, but he seems like a center fielder as of right now.

Offensively, I’m not sure I’ve heard a more mixed bag on a player. Some love the hit tool, and are bearish on his power potential. Some love the power, and are bearish on his chances to hit. Some are optimistic for both, and some are pessimistic for both. A lot of that seems to be due to his inconsistencies when it comes to pretty much everything about his swing. He’s utilized a toe tap, but also a leg kick and a stride. I’ve seen his swing very short, and I’ve seen it longer. I’ve seen a more lofty bat path, and also an extremely flat bat path. I’ve seen his hand-eye coordination raved about on multiple occasions. He has a bit of an arm bar that makes his swing long and loopy from time to time.

Getting more consistent will really reveal his true colors, but again, the physical and baseball tools are more than good enough to buy at this stage. Farmelo will be one of the guys I’ll be most excited to watch.

9. Tai Peete (3B, L/R)

8/11/2005, 18 years old

6' 2", 193 lbs

Drafted 30th Overall in 2023 Draft, Trinity Christian HS (GA)

Single A, 2028 ETA

45 FV

Peete was the club’s 3rd pick in ’23, 30th overall, a young shortstop who didn’t turn 18 until a month after the Draft with plus raw power from the left side.

Peete has a long swing made for loft and power. It’s a power-over-hit approach with not exceptional feel to hit. That being said, it’s easy plus power to all fields alongside the appropriate bat speed, and he vastly exceeded my expectations in pro ball between the Complex League and A Ball, though the swing and miss was still prevalent in a small sample. He’s struggled especially with breaking balls so far.

Defensively, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. I’m personally not the biggest fan of him at shortstop. I think he almost definitely grows into his frame and loses a step or two, and shifts over to 3B, where the power and arm profile very well.

Peete’s a bit of a project, and given how he’s so young, I’m willing to take my time a bit with him. I’m not sold on the hit tool quite yet, but he has some growth ahead of him.

10. Michael Arroyo (2B, R/R)

10/3/2004, 19 years old

5’ 8”, 160 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2022 out of Colombia

Single A, 2026 ETA

45 FV

Arroyo fits the prototype of a solid, high-floor big leaguer without tons of ceiling, but is a higher probability starting caliber player with some marginal upside due to his ETA.

Arroyo’s undersized and lacks impact power potential. Despite projecting as 40 raw power, it’s 45 game power because of some bat speed and how often he taps into his power. He’s got a strong feel to hit and doesn’t chase too much, but he’s struggled with velocity so far, especially at the top of the zone. He crowds the plate a bit. Call it 55 hit, but it’s every chance to be plus with more time in pro ball.

He’s a strong athlete, but gets moved off shortstop by a better athlete at higher levels. He could make it work at 3B, but the bat profiles a lot better at 2B, more of the contact-heavy, line drive approach with fringey power. He should be at least a 55 glove when he moves to second, though, and he’s got good range. I just don’t quite see the arm strength to stick at shortstop right this second.

There is a pretty good, average starting caliber player here, maybe in the mold of a Ty France offensively on the higher end, except with less chase and with defensive and base running value, but his ETA hurts him. Arroyo did get nicked up at the end of the year, but he performed more than adequate for an 18 year old in A Ball. He’s an above average runner. The profile honestly isn’t the most dissimilar from Ryan Bliss with more raw strength and upside.

11. Aidan Smith (CF, R/R)

7/23/2004, 19 yrs old

6’ 3”, 190 lbs

Drafted 124th overall in 2023 Draft, Lovejoy HS (TX)

Single A, 2027 ETA

40+ FV

A late-riser in the Draft process, Aidan Smith was a Texas outfielder who absolutely exploded when it came to athletic testing at the Combine. However, because he rose so late in the process, it was a real question whether a team would take a chance on him. However, Seattle grabbed him in the 4th round and gave him top 2 round money to forego his Mississippi State commitment.

Smith is currently a plus athlete and runner with an above-average arm that has a good chance to play center, but there’s certainly a chance he grows into his frame, loses a step or two, and shifts to right field. That being said, I’d definitely give him a chance to be an average center fielder, at least for the first couple years of his career.

Smith has a quiet, smooth swing with above-average bat speed. He makes loud contact, and it’s above-average power, though it might be plus if he fills out. The approach is currently hit over power, but if he becomes more power-centric, it’s a 25+ HR ceiling which might fit in RF better if he’s forced to make that shift.

Smith needs to hit in pro ball, but it’s a fun box of goods with a pretty high ceiling. He’s the classic high risk, high reward high school player with tools and athleticism.

12. Emerson Hancock

For a detailed breakdown of Hancock, check out a previous article of mine, link here:

Scouting Mariners Starters Part 6: Emerson Hancock

13. Jeter Martinez (RHP, R/R)

2/16/2006, 18 yrs old

6’ 4”, 180 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2023 out of Mexico

Dominican Summer League, 2028 ETA

40+ FV

Jeter Martinez was the Mariner’s second-highest paid IFA behind Felnin Celesten during their 2023 international class. While Celesten didn’t play a game, Martinez absolutely dominated the Dominican Summer League to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, 2.62 FIP, and a 31% strikeout rate to an 11% walk rate in 47 innings, where he showcased the ability to go deep into starts, even throwing a complete-game no-hitter in the DSL, and winning DSL All-Star Game MVP.

Accolades aside, Jeter Martinez has pretty much everything you can possibly dream on in a young pitching prospect. An athletic righty with broad shoulders and a projectable, workhorse frame, Martinez is already up to 97 MPH, and sits low to mid 90s in games. He throws both a two-seamer and four-seamer, and he’s got a curveball and changeup that’ve both flashed average or better.

Martinez did walk a hair too many guys in 2023, and he has a bit of a longer arm action, but we’re talking about a 6’ 4”, athletic kid that won’t turn 18 until mid February and is still learning how to use and control his body properly. He looks every bit a starter, and if he was in the upcoming amateur draft, he’d be the best high school pitching prospect in the class right now, no doubt.

He’s ranked lower than I would like, simply because the attrition rate for young pitchers as far from the big leagues as Jeter is ain’t great. That being said, it’s rare you get pitchers this advanced coming out of the DSL. Martinez is going to come state-side, likely starting in the Complex League, maybe getting a cup of coffee at Modesto. He does that and gets professional scouts’ eyes on him, he’s really got a shot to rocket up rankings, mine included.

14. Dawel Joseph (SS/CF, R/R)

5/15/2007, 16 years old

6’ 2”, 175 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2024 out of D.R.

Hasn’t debuted, 2029 ETA

40+ FV

Similar to Jeter Martinez, Leandro Romero, and Dylan Wilson, I have not seen Joseph play, and probably won’t see anything for another year and a half at the very least. He’s the Mariners’ top international signee in 2024, a plus or better athlete that’s flashed speed, defense, bat speed, power, and quick twitch.

For me, he looks like someone that’s going to grow into his frame a bit. It’s something similar to Noelvi Marte, a shortstop that might be a center fielder with double plus speed out of IFA, but he grows into his frame, loses a step, moves to 3B, but also gains more power. He’s a big-ticket guy that has gallons of upside, and might end up hitting 25 HRs with at shortstop or center field, and that kind of power production would fit the billing at 3B, too.

Like all international guys, ETA is not on his side (he’s four years away on the aggressive side, closer to six or seven years away realistically), and he needs to prove he can hit in pro ball. That being said, the physical tools are the kind of things you can dream on.

15. Cole Phillips (RHP, R/R)

5/26/2003, 21 yrs old

6’ 3”, 200 lbs

Drafted 57th Overall in 2022 Draft, Boerne HS (TX)

Hasn’t played, 2026 ETA

40+ FV

Probably one the guys I was more surprised with where I ended up ranking him, Phillips was the centerpiece in the Jarred Kelenic salary dump. The Braves went under-slot with their first pick in 2022 so they could sign JR Ritchie (Shoutout the local kid, hope he comes back from TJ fine and dandy) and Cole Phillips, who might’ve been a first-round pick if not for Tommy John in his Draft year.

The Braves took it easy with Phillips’ rehab last year, and he didn’t appear in his pro debut. He was shut down with soreness in September, and Phillips seems to have suffered from a setback that might delay his debut further. Phillips wasn’t taken in the Draft by Seattle, but he also fits exactly the kind of pitchers they target in the draft.

Phillips has a clean, athletic delivery, smooth and easy while attacking from a low release. The fastball has serious helium, sitting low to mid 90s in side starts, up to 99 with carry through the zone. It’s got a real chance to be a plus or better pitch if he can bring it back somewhere close to where it was pre-surgery. The breaking ball and changeup are nothing certain, but both flashed average or better with some really intriguing traits pre-TJ. It’s a starter’s, workhorse frame with three or more pitches, a good delivery, athleticism, and a low release.

The injury risk is massive, but I’m a big fan of the profile otherwise. He’s very far away, and he’ll be close to 21 years old when he makes his pro debut, but the tools are fun, and he has a shot at being a mid-rotation arm if he can build his arm up and improve his command, but he’s got a long way ahead of him for that. Certainly an upside play.

16. Brody Hopkins (RHP, R/R)

1/18/2002, 22 years old

6’ 4”, 200 lbs

Drafted 187th Overall in 2023 Draft, Winthrop University

2026 ETA

40 FV

Hopkins was a transfer from the College of Charleston, an absolute freak athlete who played center field and led Winthrop in home runs, played wide receiver on their football team, did a backflip during a workout, and there’s a video somewhere out there of him jumping over a catcher to score a run.

That being said, Hopkins’ future is certainly on the mound. 2023 was his first real opportunity to pitch in college baseball, and in his first year, he really flashed relative to how green he is on the mound.

It’s a little bit of a longer arm action, but something that could be tweaked, like the Mariners did with Bryce Miller. Seattle’s also seen early success with guys like Miller and Darren Bowen when it comes to a bit longer arm actions and making some adjustments. He’s an explosive mover that gets down the mound well and attacks from a lower release.

Hopkins shows four pitches that all flash. He throws a sinker with average arm-side run a ton of sink, absolutely dropping off the table, and a four-seamer that, typically, had average shape, but it’d flash a ton of carry, which, from a low-release, is intriguing. Both pitches sat low to mid 90s in 2023, but topped out at 98, and Hopkins has more velocity coming, suggesting he’s sitting more mid 90s, touching triple digits when it’s all said and done, or sitting high 90s if he’s in the bullpen.

Hopkins has a silly power-slurve up to 91 with nasty late vertical break and some sweep, sitting mid 80s in college, getting into the high 80s and low 90s on occasion. It’s diabolical, an easy 60 grade pitch. He threw a changeup that he lacked a ton of feel for, but also flashed really good shape with a ton of drop and good tail. Again, another pitch that’s got a lot of helium.

Hopkins wasn’t productive in college at all, struggling massively with walks. Hopkins is undoubtedly a project, but being that advanced at Winthrop of all places while not pitching pretty much at all prior to that is telling. It wasn’t just his first time pitching with any consistently, it was his first time starting with any consistency. You bring this guy not only into a major-league organization, but an organization like Seattle, who has an incredible track record with guys like this, and you have a chance of finding something very, very interesting, and at the very least, I think he gets to the big-leagues as a reliever. He has as much volatility as anyone in the system.

17. Ryan Bliss (2B, R/R)

12/13/1999, 24 years old

5’ 6”, 165 lbs

Drafted 42nd overall in 2021 Draft, Auburn

Triple A, 2024 ETA

40 FV

Bliss is the little engine that could, an undersized, 5’ 6” middle infielder with speed that’s hit everywhere he’s been, but don’t be deceived by the numbers, especially the power numbers in 2023, given how Bliss split his time between Amarillo and the PCL.

Bliss has a very flat bat path conducive to line drives more than anything. It’s 30 grade power that Bliss did tap into often, but the shift from the launching pads he was playing at to big-league stadiums is not a friendly transition, and I’d go so far to say I’d be surprised if he hit more than 12 in a season.

Bliss is definitely hit over power, and he chases a fair bit, especially hard stuff up and out of the zone, and he has a hard time hitting the fastball at the top of the zone in general. That being said, when he chases pitches, he makes contact with them more often than the typical player, which makes me fine to call the hit tool above-average.

The arm is fringey, and doesn’t play at shortstop, but it definitely plays well at 2B, where he’s a 55. He’s gritty, athletic, and puts in a lot of effort, so I can definitely see him flash more as a 60 grade defender with more time. He’s a plus runner that hustles and is a very smart base runner, capable of stealing 30+ if given a full season.

Overall, I think Bliss has a very high floor and low ceiling. I think there’s very little variation in the profile; he’s a fringe starter who doesn’t provide any power, but is more of a gritty utility infield speedster and decent contact guy in the mold of a Josh Harrison or Jon Berti. On the upside, maybe he’s the kind of spark plug, energizer baseball rat at the top of the order that sets up for the big fish, something like Adam Frazier or Nicky Lopez in his best years.

18. Walter Ford (RHP, R/R)

12/28/2004, 19 years old

6’ 3”, 200 lbs

Drafted 74th Overall in 2022 Draft, Pace HS (FL)

Arizona Complex League, 2028 ETA

40 FV

Walter Ford was drafted at 17 years old as an explosive athlete up to 97 with a 6’ 3” frame and a slider with tons of spin. None of that has changed, but his one season in the pros has definitely created a lot more questions than answers.

Walter has as over-the-top of a release as you’ll find, and is a really explosive, athletic mover on the mound. There’s effort at release, and in the limited times I’ve seen him pitch, I’ve noticed he releases his slider much lower than his fastball, and he might just have issues repeating his release in general.

In 2023, his velocity was extremely down, and he was sitting 87–91, his fastball getting as low as 86 MPH, but this was apparently because Walter got sick and lost a ton of weight prior to his pro debut. He struggled with walks some in Rookie Ball, and was fine from a performance standpoint. The velocity drop seems to be just an abnormality, and he’ll have better velocity next year, but where his velocity ultimately ends up isn’t something I can predict, either, and his command projection hasn’t gotten much better, either, neither has his chance at an offspeed pitch.

That being said, Walter has more than enough time to make improvements and prove that he can start. The raw tools and traits are still there, and you don’t often see high-school pitchers get off to running starts at the beginning of their pro careers, even the premium ones. Give him a bit of time. I’m comfortable, at the very least, he’s a serviceable reliever. But you never know what guys like this can turn into.

19. Darren Bowen (RHP, R/R)

2/3/2001, 23 years old

6’ 3”, 180 lbs

Drafted 296th Overall in 2022 Draft, UNC Pembroke

Single A, 2025 ETA

40 FV

Bowen’s a project, but an interesting one, for sure. A 13th round pick, Bowen was slowly brought on in Modesto while coming back from injury. That being said, he was up to 98, sitting mid 90s through shorter outings.

Bowen’s fastball has Bryce Miller-esque hop with a similar flat approach angle, and he utilized a two-seamer and plus sweeping slider in the low 80s that really made right-handed hitters look foolish, with a budding changeup that flashed occasionally. He still needs to show some offspeed, and it’s a longer arm path where it lags behind. Bowen is a good athlete with some muscle to add onto a projectable 6’ 3”, 180 lb frame, though he’s on the thinner side, similar to a Triston McKenzie type.

If I had to bet one way or another, Bowen’s a reliever, but his traits are far too interesting to discount as just a reliever. Seattle’s done a lot with guys like this, and even if Bowen’s a reliever, with that kind of hop, by the time he gets to the big leagues he might be sitting 96–99 with tons of carry and a mid 80s sweeper. This is just another classic example of a guy that fits Seattle’s fancy when it comes to what they like with college arms in the draft, and the things they’ve done with similar arms better than any team in baseball since they started targeting them.

20. Teddy McGraw (RHP, R/R)

10/30/2001, 22 years old

6’ 3”, 210 lbs

Drafted 92nd Overall in 2023 Draft, Wake Forest University

Hasn’t played, 2025 ETA

40 FV

McGraw was a potential first-round pick before his second UCL surgery his Junior year, but he got absolute rave reviews from scouts, some saying he might’ve been better than his rotation mate Rhett Lowder, who went 7th overall in 2023.

McGraw has four pitches, and two fastballs. The first is two-seamer up to 98, and four-seamer that’s used primarily as his secondary fastball. Both sat in the mid 90s in college.

The money pitch is an absolutely hellacious slider up to 91, sitting mid 80s in college with tons of sweep up to 3000 RPM, a plus or better pitch. He’s flashed a changeup with some teeth, too, though he needs to gain some feel over it, but there’s more than enough there presently to project as average.

McGraw didn’t have TJ, rather a UCL Brace, which means he’ll definitely pitch this year barring a setback of some kind, and he may be ready at the beginning of the season. That being said, I think it’s likely they bring him along slowly.

McGraw’s has got quite a bit of effort at release that gives him a lot of reliever risk alongside the injuries and the strike-throwing woes. He’s an average athlete that attacks from a low release, giving him some more deception. He’s got a chance at three above-average pitches alongside premium velocity, the slider being a for-sure plus pitch. The UCL history is concerning, but if McGraw is healthy, he has the floor of a mid-leverage bullpen arm, and the possibility of being a mid-rotation starter if he cleans up some of the command concerns.

21. Prelander Berroa (RHP, R/R)

4/18/2000, 23 years old

5’ 11”, 170 lbs

Signed as an IFA in 2016 out of the D.R

MLB, 2024 ETA

40 FV

Berroa’s stuff is the kind of stuff you salivate over and really wonder if this guy could be something special in the back of the bullpen.

It’s a fastball that sits 95–98, and he’ll touch triple digits with it. It’s got above-average carry, and Berroa attacks with a flat approach angle, with gives the pitch a little extra juice. His strike-throwing ability with the pitch can wax and wane, but when it’s in the zone, it’s a tough one to hit. 70 grade pitch.

Berroa’s slider is another absolutely nasty pitch. A mid 80s gyro ball that has nasty late break, making hitters look foolish as they’re hunting for that upper 90s heat. It’s pretty much exclusively as a chase pitch, so Berroa very rarely throws it for a strike, but it’s a definitive 60 grade pitch.

Berroa has 35 grade command, which is certainly a hinderance, but walks are an issue mitigated in one-inning outings, so it probably won’t affect his career too much. You also see guys like Camilo Doval enter the big leagues with similar walk issues in the minors, and then the approach changes, and the strike-throwing gets rectified a bit. If Berroa throws a strike, whether it’s in the middle of the plate or not, it’ll be difficult to hit no matter what. He’s flashed the ability to really hit the zone at times, and when he has, he’s looked absolutely unhittable. It’s a high-leverage reliever ceiling.

22. Blake Hunt (C, R/R)

11/10/1998, 25 years old

6’ 3”, 215 lbs

Drafted 69th Overall in 2017 Draft, Mater Dei HS (CA)

Triple A, mid 2024 ETA

35+ FV

The former Rays farmhand was traded to Seattle for Tatem Levins as a casualty of Tampa’s never-ending roster crunch carousel. Hunt has plus raw power and seemed to make a more conscious effort to lift the ball with authority this last year, especially to his pull-side. The hit tool is rather poor, showcasing a lot of swing and miss along a chase rate over 40%, which severely caps the hit tool. Hunt is 25, and there doesn’t appear to be a whole lot more in the tank than what you already see. It’s a close ETA, high-probability, low ceiling back-up/platoon catcher with a power-over-hit approach. The toolset on the surface isn’t too dissimilar from what the Mariners got when they traded for Tom Murphy, but there’s a chance Hunt is nothing more than an org guy in a year, kind of like what Cooper Hummel did last year. Hunt’s got average-ish defensive chops and an above-average arm.

23. Ben Williamson (3B, R/R)

10/5/2000, 23 years old

6’, 190 lbs

Drafted 57th Overall in 2023 Draft, College of William & Mary

Single A, 2025 ETA

35+ FV

The William and Mary third baseman is an interesting cat. A senior-sign in the second round, Ben Williamson didn’t go to the MLB Draft Combine, meaning he was one of the few players a team could go heavily under-slot with without any restrictions. The Mariners pounced on him in the second round so they could fit guys like Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo, Colt Emerson, and Aidan Smith into the budget.

That being said, Williamson is far from a throw-away pick. In his senior year, his power production and batted ball profile went through the roof. It’s above-average, borderline plus power, and he’s made good, solid contact throughout his college career. He played in the CAA (Colonial Athletic Association), which is certainly not the highest level of competition, which matters a lot more with hitters than pitchers. He got very positive reviews when he was on the Cape, mashing with the bat in his brief time there, but also getting strong reviews for his athletic ability and potential versatility.

Williamson is something of a mini five-tool player. He’s very athletic and above-average runner that could steal double digit bases in the big leagues. He’s above-average at the hot corner with an above-average arm, too. I’ve heard some people say that he could maybe play an average CF or even better RF if the team that takes him wish, or even play SS if they wish, that’s how athletic he is.

I’m not a fan of the swing. It’s a very high hand load you’d see from Japanese or Korean hitters a lot. It’s an extremely long swing, and I need to see him handle better quality breaking balls before I can say anything definitively about him offensively, because I can see that long swing giving him issues against right-handed breakers away from him. He’s not very balanced in his stance, and uses a bit leg kick for timing. For me, it’s much more about whether he can maintain enough balance and overcome that swing to be able to adjust to breaking balls, in and out of the zone.

The toolshed is definitely interesting, if unproven. That being said, I think he looks aesthetically and tools-wise like Josh Jung, and can possibly get to a starting role in that mold at the major-league level. He just has a long way to go before I can say that with any kind of confidence, and needs to prove himself as a hitter against good competition, which will be hard with that swing and set-up.

24. Axel Sanchez (SS, R/R)

12/10/2002, 21 years old

5’ 10”, 170 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2019 out of D.R.

High A, 2026 ETA

35+ FV

I’m less down on Axel Sanchez than his numbers suggest, simply because I think he got royally screwed over by the Mariners by getting put in High A when he simply wasn’t ready.

Sanchez is a good athlete that plays a good shortstop and projects to stick with above-average defensive and athletic tools across the board. He’s flashed some pop, but he’s a bit of a hacker at the plate that whiffs and chases a fair bit. He struggled with injury in 2023 alongside the offensive issues.

Sanchez signed as an IFA in the summer 2019, and didn’t make his pro debut until 2021. He’s going to be 21, which isn’t awful for High A, but I just wish the Mariners didn’t push him and essentially stall his development. That being said, I see a pretty good platoon middle infielder here with above-average pop, and maybe could squeeze into a lower-end starting-caliber role.

Given the influx of young, big-ticket prep shortstops that’ve either passed him up or have the potential to pass him up, I have a hard time seeing quite where Sanchez gets the reps at shortstop he should deserve given the athletic and defensive toolkit. A lot of Sanchez’s development stalling out has been due to some rotten luck and timing.

25. Luis Suisbel (1B/3B, S/R)

5/23/2003, 20 years old

6’ 1”, 190 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2019 out of Venezuela

Single A, 2027 ETA

35+ FV

Suisbel is a raw corner infielder with some definitive warts, but some interesting traits. His defense is questionable at best, and there’s a 50/50 shot he has to move to 1B. He’s got a thick frame and is a bit of a blocky athlete, projecting as a below-average runner.

That being said, no matter whether he plays 1B/3B, the power certainly profiles well for both. Suisbel is a switch-hitter, and he’s got a calm, slightly opened stance with the bat rested on the shoulder before he takes a soft leg kick in, kind of reminding me of Robinson Cano’s set-up, cool, calm, and collected, but that similarity ends with the swing. Suisbel’s swing is violent, and built for pull-side damage on both sides of the plate. It’s plus bat speed with loft, and he seems to have found his power stroke at the right time in his career.

That being said, the overall hit tool is what makes Suisbel a project. He’s never struck out less than 27% of the time at any stop, there’s some chase in his game, and the general profile of a 30–40 hit tool guy that only plays a fringe 3B or 1B that’s probably still four years or more away isn’t a promising one, which is why I think I’m lower on Suisbel than some.

That being said, it is 25–30 HR power, and maybe Suisbel can develop into a Miguel Sano type at the maximum, but he’d need some time to do that, and he’s already 20 years old, which, for A ball, isn’t bad, per se, but isn’t great, either. That being said, Suisbel signed in the summer of 2019, and didn’t make his major league debut until two full years later, so the age doesn’t matter so much in this scenario.

Because of the power and ETA, there is some offensive ceiling to dream on, but the probability isn’t fantastic.

26. Troy Taylor (RHRP, R/R)

9/9/2001, 22 years old

6’, 195 lbs

Drafted 366th Overall in 2022 Draft, UC Irvine

High A, mid 2024 ETA

35+ FV

Troy Taylor is a quick arm that was taken in the same range as a bunch of other impressive late-round bullpen arm sleeper picks the Mariners pulled off that year (Marcelo Perez in the 11th, Darren Bowen in the 13th, Tyler Cleveland in the 14th).

Taylor sits mid 90s, averaging 95, but scratching the upper 90s with a fastball with absolutely loads of run, and an above-average mid 80s sweeping slider that works wonders in relief. It’s a nasty wombo combo of pitches. Taylor impressed in the Arizona Fall League, and he generated incredible amounts of ground balls and whiffs during his debut season across Single A, High A, and the AFL. He’s as stereotypical of a late-round relief pick as the Mariners have gone for the last couple years: a guy with a sinker with some velocity and lots of run, and a nasty sweeping slider.

I expect Taylor to start the year in Double A (his AFL stint shows he’s probably too advanced for High A hitters even though he didn’t get much time there). This look like a guy who might get fast-tracked to the majors and be an easy middle-relief guy by midseason when they start pulling from the farm system to act as bandaids for injuries and underperformance from the guys they were relying upon.

27. Jonatan Clase (CF/LF, S/R)

5/23/2002, 21 years old

5’ 9”, 150 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2018 from the D.R.

Double A, 2025 ETA

35+ FV

Clase’s a flashy center fielder who many are calling one of the Mariners’ top prospects, but I’m far more of a skeptic, and I seriously doubt whether he even has a chance to be a starting-quality big leaguer.

Clase’s a short guy at 5’ 9”, with tons of physical tools, a switch-hitter with tons of speed and some solid power for his size. The problem is that Clase’s been stubbornly sticking to a horrible approach where he’s trying to use his 40 grade power to hit 40 home runs. His launch-angle and fly-ball rates are similar to that of Joey Gallo, and he’s clearly a three-true-outcome guy at 150 lbs, which is certainly a business decision. He also has a massive hole when it comes to velocity at the top of the zone.

It’s double plus speed, and Clase is one of the premier base stealers in minor league baseball, but that speed doesn’t translate well to the field. I actually have my doubts about Clase in center field, as the reads he gets on fly balls are pretty horrible, and he’s maybe a fringey defender there.

Clase’s tools are flashy, but he simply doesn’t utilize them well, and a 30 hit tool is pretty useless if he’s not hitting 30 or more home runs (which he isn’t) and/or playing a plus or better up the middle (which he isn’t).

28. Ty Adcock (RHRP, R/R)

2/7/1997, 27 years old

6’, 213 lbs

Drafted 246th Overall in 2019 Draft, Elon

MLB, 2024 ETA

35+ FV

Adcock is an interesting story. The righty was a college catcher until his draft year, when he converted to a power arm in the bullpen, and got Drafted alongside fellow Elon righty George Kirby in 2019.

Unfortunately, Adcock’s journey to the big leagues was put in jeopardy, as a combination of the COVID season and TJ surgery meant he couldn’t actually pitch for Seattle until 2022, out in the Arizona Fall League.

When Adcock came back in 2023, he went on an absolute tear and managed to break the big club in the middle of the year, though he was given an extremely short leash and optioned down the minors after not particularly struggling too much, which confused me. He didn’t pitch pretty much at all after that, so there might have been an injury involved.

That being said, the profile is as prototype as it comes for a reliever: mid to high 90s fastball touching triple digits and a short breaking slider in the mid to high 80s that seemed to deceive hitters very well, along with more enough command to make it all work.

Adcock projects very easily into the middle of a bullpen at some point this year, and there’s even some chance at a little more in a really good year. The injury history, as well as the sudden stop in usage is concerning, however.

29. Jimmy Joyce (RHP, R/R)

1/13/1999, 25 years old

6’ 2”, 210 lbs

Drafted 474th Overall, 2021 Draft, Hofstra

Double A, late ’24 ETA

35+ FV

Joyce is an odd profile who might be able to fulfill some combination of a middle relief role and a swing-man between rotation and bullpen. The skill set’s on the “unspectacular” side of things, but he has a flat approach angle that gives his stuff some deception.

It’s a low to mid 90s two-seamer that really gets in on the hands of righties. Joyce has generated a minimum of 53% ground balls at every stop in his minor league career, and projects to be that soft-contact, bat breaker merchant. He throws a breaking ball and a changeup that’ve both gotten their roses.

There’s not much ceiling here, but Joyce has the floor of three average-ish pitches with movement and average-ish command, making believe there could be something like Bryce Elder or Nick Martinez in the cards, a guy whose tools aren’t sexy, but because he’s deceptive, he could be a #5 or effective swing man in the bullpen. If he moves to the bullpen, it’s a mid-leverage ceiling due to the lack of impact stuff.

30. Dylan Wilson (RHP, R/R)

12/1/2005, 18 years old

6’, 160 lbs

Signed as IFA in 2023 out of Curacao

DSL, 2029 ETA

35+ FV

I haven’t seen much on Wilson, but Dylan Wilson is a 6’ right-hander with explosive athleticism, a fastball up to 91 (that’s outdated, he’s probably higher than that) with a plus curveball. He’s on the smaller side, but the traits are really intriguing and indicative of an interesting reliever at the very least with more potential on the way. The righty from Curacao only pitched 16.1 innings in ’23 in the DSL, in which he struggled with walks but missed tons of bats. He’s very raw, but also has interesting enough traits to where I’d be remiss not to include him on my top 30.

Summary:

1. Colt Emerson (SS, 55 FV, ’26 ETA)
2. Cole Young (SS, 55 FV, ’25 ETA)
3. Harry Ford (C, 50+ FV, late ’25 ETA)
4. Lazaro Montes (DH, 50 FV, ’27 ETA)
5. Tyler Locklear (1B, 50 FV, ‘25 ETA)
6. Felnin Celesten (SS, 45 FV+, ’28 ETA)
7. Gabriel Gonzalez (OF, 45 FV, ’26 ETA)
8. Jonny Farmelo (CF, 45 FV, ’27 ETA)
9. Tai Peete (3B, 45 FV, ’28 ETA)
10. Michael Arroyo (2B, 45 FV, ’27 ETA)
11. Aidan Smith (OF, 40+ FV, ’28 ETA)
12. Emerson Hancock (RHP, 40+ FV, ’24 ETA)
13. Jeter Martinez (RHP, 40+ FV, ’28 ETA)
14. Dawel Joseph (SS, 40+ FV, ’29 ETA)
15. Cole Phillips (RHP, 40+ FV, ’27 ETA)
16. Brody Hopkins (RHP, 40 FV, ’26 ETA)
17. Ryan Bliss (2B, 40 FV, ’24 ETA)
18. Walter Ford (RHP, 40 FV, ’28 ETA)
19. Darren Bowen (RHP, 40 FV, ’25 ETA)
20. Teddy McGraw (RHP, 40 FV, ’26 ETA)
21. Prelander Berroa (RHRP, 40 FV, ’24 ETA)
22. Blake Hunt (C, 35+ FV, mid ’24 ETA)
23. Ben Williamson (3B, 35+ FV, ’26 ETA)
24. Axel Sanchez (SS, 35+ FV, ’26 ETA)
25. Luis Suisbel (1B/3B, 35+ FV, ’27 ETA)
26. Troy Taylor (RHP, 35+ FV, late ’24 ETA)
27. Jonatan Clase (LF, 35+ FV, ’25 ETA)
28. Ty Adcock (RHP, 35+ FV, ’24 ETA)
29. Jimmy Joyce (RHP, ’35+ FV, late ’24 ETA)
30. Dylan Wilson (RHP, 35+, ’29 ETA)

Well, that was fun! As I conclude this piece, I just want to say thanks for the support I’ve gotten so far. This blog is something I absolutely had no expectations for when it came to audience and attention, so the fact that even a couple of you are out there has surprised me!

This one’s been in the works for over a month now, and has by far taken the most time and effort out of any piece I’ve done so far, combing through video and data, so I’d appreciate if you dropped a follow and subscribed to get my stuff via email so you can know when I’m dropping stuff.

Next week, I’ll be releasing a Top 50 2024 MLB Draft Prospects List, which is the work of an entire offseason of watching tape, sorting through data, and researching players. I won’t provide nowhere near in-depth analysis on the players as I do typically (there’s 50 players and neither you or I have all day), but more of a simple summary of them, their skillsets, and what I think of them.

The week after that list, I’ll provide a Mariners Mock Draft, a Mock Draft featuring only the first five rounds for the Seattle Mariners Draft this year. I think it’ll be a helpful way to break down my opinions on what they need to address in the farm system, and what kind of players could fulfill those needs. The 5-Round Mock Draft is something I’ll do 2–3 more times after the Draft cycle kicks into gear.