Conspiracy Theories: The Opium of the Middle East
By Omar Slim*
In the Middle East, the world is often seen through the prism of conspiracy theories. Referenced in serious and less serious conversations, conspiracy theories offer appealing explanations to events ranging from the mundane neighbourly dirty look to geo-political turning points. For believers, they satisfyingly uncover the machination behind important events, like entering the cave of Ali Baba and discovering its best kept secrets. Rarely plausible and frequently ludicrous, no theory is too bizarre to be considered in the ever so imaginative bazar of Middle Eastern conspiracy belief.
Conspiracy theories are, by no means, a purely Middle Eastern phenomenon. For instance, over a third of Americans seem to think that global warming is a hoax. Others question official explanations of significant events such as the assassination of the United States President John Kennedy in 1963, or the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. The prevalence of conspiracy theories in some Asian countries is also noteworthy.
Its prevalence in the Middle East however is unparalleled anywhere else in the world.
A Resistance to Falsification
The definition of conspiracy theory offers clues about its popularity in the Middle East. A conspiracy theory is an attempt to explain events, usually important events, involving a secret plot and careful planning by powerful groups. Those groups are often considered sinister, oppressive and malevolent. By definition, conspiracy theories are speculative, since the actions in questions are hidden from the public. As such, they are hard to refute, since the players supposedly act stealthily and make sure they hide their trails. This resistance to falsification enhances the belief in conspiracy theories. It implies that non believers or those who try to debunk those theories might themselves be part of the conspiracy theories.
“The Refuge of the Powerless.”
The first reason behind the central role of conspiracy belief in the Middle East is most likely related to the political construct of the region. Research has shown an undeniable relationship between a lack of empowerment and conspiracy belief . People who feel powerless, unrepresented, ineffectual look for causes that they believe have to be bigger than them, outside their control and devised by powerful groups. In other words, they look to make sense of the world through conspiracy belief. In the case of the Middle East, this lack of empowerment is evident: Few countries in the Middle East, if any, are real democracies. Few countries have transparent clean governments with robust governance. Freedom of press is a rarity.
This opaque relationship with the ruling regimes and the lack of empowerment it creates present a fertile ground for conspiracy belief. Additionally, with a large number of Middle Eastern countries failing to provide economic prosperity to their citizens, conspiracy theories provide a convenient justification. After all, it is easier for ruling regimes to deflect and blame “imperial powers” and secretive shadowy groups than admit their own incompetence.
A Lost Glory
Besides feeling powerless, there is no question that the Middle East’s glorious but long lost history plays a critical role in its conspiracy belief. People on the losing side of history or the political process are much more susceptible to conspiracy belief.
The Middle East is the cradle of civilisations. It has witnessed the birth and death of numerous empires, like the Islamic, Persian and Byzantine empires. While not insignificant, today’s Middle-East is a shadow of its former mighty self.
The Middle East tasted glory and then lost it. People read about a glorious past but live in a much less glorious present. The thriving region that produced the three monotheistic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, the cultural and philosophical center from which innumerable philosophers, poets and schools of thought flourished, the military and economic powerhouse that controlled an area once stretching from the Philippines to Spain, the scientific breeding ground of some of the most important mathematicians and astronomers, is no more.
This distinct sense of loss creates bitterness, anger and a desperate search for an explanation. The conspiracy believer cannot comprehend how such a rich and historically central region can become what it is now. In a twisted way, conspiracy belief offers a way of protecting some sense of self importance. It allows the believer to feel superior by uncovering and shedding light on a scheme that was meant to remain in the dark. Also, by highlighting the outsized power and importance of those malicious players, the believers can get themselves to recuperate some of their pride: After all, who would stand a chance facing such powerful foes, whether they’re imaginary or real?
Cui Bono?
Beliefs in conspiracy theories is also correlated with a lower level of education and a reduced ability to think analytically. Some of the conspiracy theories in the Middle-East are so easy to debunk when a minimal amount of critical thinking is applied. Unsurprisingly, education in the Middle-East is generally poor. A UNICEF report for instance shows that education is generally of mediocre quality (with the exception of a few countries), and those same countries consistently score poorly in international standardised tests. UNICEF blames traditional education, rigid teacher student methods and outdated curricula.
Making matters worse, educational and formative years are often infused by traditional influences that often prevent critical thinking and much needed skepticism. Belief in the evil eye for instance and mythical creatures is prevalent. Clairvoyance is a popular sport and some clairvoyants have huge followings. Additionally, inflexible religious teaching that dictates rather than teaches make things worse. This is of particular concern in the past years when intolerant religious education saw a worrisome increase, more often than not conflicting with logic and fact based thinking.
Paranoia’s Close Cousin
Conspiracy theories allow a stronger sense of belonging. In fact, it reinforces a group’s positive and moral image of itself, particularly against an immoral adversary trying to sabotage it. Research shows that blaming another threatening group elevates one own’s group, by showing its moral superiority and also its ability to uncover this malevolence.
This is particularly applicable to the Middle East where there is no shortage of diversity, which sadly translates into division. To make matters worse, those groups and identities are often narrowly defined across religious, ethnic, tribal, linguistic and cultural lines: Sunnis vs. Shia, Gulf Arabs vs. Iranians, Kurds vs. Turks, Druzes vs. larger groups, some minorities vs. other minorities, etc. Conspiracy belief provides therefore the double benefit of enhancing the strong of sense belonging prevalent within those many groups but it also facilitates the assignment of easy blame to explain the multitude of events bound to afflict the community.
Conspiracy theories allow groups to feel in control, having detected, uncovered and understood “the other’s” malevolent plans. Said otherwise, they feel they rendered dangerous and untrustworthy groups ineffective, by revealing their scheming behaviour. Anxious people are in fact much more susceptible to conspiracy belief.
Interestingly, research also seems to connect conspiracy belief with paranoia.
Conspiracy theories exist because conspiracies exist
A fifth major reason why conspiracy theories exist is that conspiracies do exist. Conspiracies have in effect shaped the modern Middle-East and no agreement played a more important role in doing so than what’s known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement.
The secret 1916 Sykes – Picot Agreement defined mutually agreed spheres of influence between the colonial powers of United Kingdom and France (as well as Italy and Russia, although that point is less discussed and less known). The current boundaries of countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Jordan are a direct result of. this agreement. Sir Mark Sykes, who was known to be an expert in the Middle East and fluent in Arabic speaker while in reality being neither, is famously remembered to have said that regions north of the line stretching from “the E of Acre to the K of Kirkuk” should be under the French influence and those to its south under mostly British influence. This agreement is very much alive in the minds of current people of the region. It was a secret agreement, drawn by foreigners, that dictates where and how they live now. In other words, a conspiracy defined their nationality, their past, their present and the second language they’re likely to speak.
Simply put, a conspiracy defined who they now are.
Other examples abound, but one that also stands out is the Balfour Declaration (also known as the “Promise of Balfour”). In 1917, Arthur James Balfour, the British foreign secretary declared that the United Kingdom would support “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people.” This declaration, along the many subsequent twists and turns of the over stretched foreign policy of an eroding global British empire, left a distinct sense of betrayal within the Arab society. The birth of Israel in 1948 and its catastrophic consequences on the Palestinians and some surrounding countries is a traumatic and definitional experience for non Israeli Middle Easterners. The fact that current Israel thrives further destabilises the psyche of millions of Arabs. For Arabs, Israel was born out of a conspiracy.
But conspiracy belief is not specific to Arabs. Perhaps it is as prevalent, if not more, within Iranians who had their fair share of conspiracies throughout their long history. For instance, a conspiracy by the United States, the United Kingdom and the Shah overthrew democratically elected Prime Minister Mosaddegh in 1953. Operation Ajax, as United States intelligences agencies called it, was an Iranian coup d’état fully orchestrated by foreign powers and some local collaborators. It was such an important milestone of Iranian politics that, when, 26 years later, the Islamic Republic of Iran saw the light, it was foreign interference such as the one displayed in 1953 that some of the revolutionaries used to flame mistrust of the “West”. That same mistrust of the “West” continues to be an enshrined belief of millions of Iranians, particularly die hard regime supporters.
Reading all those actual conspiracies that defined the Middle East we know, one might understand, and perhaps even sympathise why people of the region are hardcore conspiracy believers.
They should not. Conspiracies exist everywhere. Great powers connive and conspire. Conspiracies are in fact an integral part of geopolitics. It is capable leadership and strong people that stop it. For instance, the Sykes Picot Agreement also called for Italian and Russian spheres of influence in what is now Turkey. The rise of a capable Turkish Republic, along other factors, prevented that from occurring. The conspiracy failed in defining Turkey, but succeeded in defining much of the Arab world because the Arabs were weak and uncoordinated. Conspiracies are effective when the leaders and people targeted are not.
Besides the amusement it often provides to more credible and analytical observers, conspiracy belief is dangerous, particularly because it is often through that prism that the world is often interpreted, or rather, misinterpreted. More worryingly, conspiracy belief seems to be often prevalent even within the highest echelons of government and officials.
Importantly, there is no evidence that conspiracy belief helps believers satisfy their need to explain the world or protect beliefs. In that sense, conspiracy belief is similar to consuming addictive drugs, creating dependence without providing any benefit. More alarmingly, conspiracy belief leads to inaction and idleness, exacerbating the reasons why people who believe in conspiracy theories do so in the first place.
In a way then, conspiracy belief is the opium of the Middle East.
*Omar Slim writes here in his personal capacity.
