The 1% Likely Electoral Scenarios That May Soon Unfold And Change Everything

I keep seeing these #BernieOrBust rumors and wistful facebook posts about a write-in campaign in Vermont, a hail-mary pass at making Bernie president by 3 electoral votes and a House vote.

The current outlook in conventional wisdom (AKA the Math) is that Clinton is going to win this fall (84% likely) unless Scrooge McDuck (you know who I’m talking about) runs the table in all of the competitive swing states (16% likely and falling, according to FiveThirtyEight). Scrooge has already hit his ceiling of support.

Since I like writing electoral science fan fiction about Bernie, let’s explore this 1% likely scenario of a third-party breakthrough.

The #BernieOrBust VT trick only works if Gary Johnson fails to win 5 electoral votes in his home state, New Mexico. He’s currently polling at 19%, Scrooge McDuck 32%, Secretary Clinton 41%. He could seriously pull this off, and be the third-place finisher for the House vote. (Third-party polls at 270towin)

Utah’s Republicans appear to be throwing their weight behind Evan Mc Mullen — possible dark horse CIA operative, Utah native, and Mormon — who is currently tying Clinton for 2nd place in UT (6 EV). If McMullen closes the gap to win Utah, he beats Johnson and is eligible for the House vote.

VT < NM < UT, both in the Electoral College and in statistical probability of each third-party candidate winning. You would need at least two states to #WriteInBernie.

At least two, but probably more. Remember, we’re assuming that the tempering of third-party support that we usually see in elections is actually a J-curve. Johnson’s recent polling in NM is similar in SD (3), ID (4), AK (3). He’s only 20% behind here and stands to benefit the most from Scrooge’s impending collapse. If Johnson can win NM, then the Republican Party’s stronghold west of the continental divide is on the brink of collapse. If the West turns against both parties in the next 30 days, we could easily see Johnson net 15 or more electoral votes. Throw MT in the mix and make it 19. NV and AZ are then likely-Clinton, perhaps three-way competitive.

Scrooge can’t win without the West, even if he runs the table on the big Eastern swing states. And in this scenario, Clinton can’t win without the Pacific Northwest.

In sum:

McMullen: 0–6 EV

Johnson: 5–25 EV

To guarantee a third-place finish, #BernieOrBust needs:

Sanders: 7–26 EV

The four states in which Bernie was popular enough to win electoral votes and where a write in vote will count are: WA (12), OR (7), VT (3), NH (4). This gets us 26 EV. To guarantee a third-place finish in this cycle, he’s got to win — on a wing-nut write-in campaign in which he is not actually campaigning — in at least one of the Pacific Northwest states, and possibly in all four of these states.

In addition to this, the Clinton campaign has to experience a similar collapse of their campaign, and/or the Stein campaign has to get their 5%, and get it in all the right/wrong places in order to force an electoral college deadlock.

To the Stein campaign’s credit, they are polling above 5% in CA, KY, MT, RI, WA, VT, HI, ID, while remaining mostly irrelevant in swing states. To actually reach their 5% target nationally, we would likely need to see her polling 15% (like Johnson is) in solid blue states like CA, IL, NY, MA. 7% of the electorate is currently over-voting for Clinton in Blue States (extra D votes — see below). Stein can also run up as much of a total as she can in traditionally R states to get the Green Party their 5 percent. She can do this without necessarily endangering Clinton’s lead.

Clinton can still win handily while the Green party gets a national 5% in “blue states” alone. If you’re seeing that Clinton is not progressive enough for you, it is because the progressive left is not dangerous enough to her electoral prospects. Plain and simple. Even if the left bagged electoral votes in this cycle (which is currently not statistically likely or relevant).

And this begs the question — if we can afford to organize electoral votes for Bernie — why doesn’t the far left just get those electoral votes for Stein? Stein could even win OR, WA, or VT if her campaign organized hard for it. The current House would never select Stein in an Electoral College deadlock, but it would at least be making strides towards the goal of 5% for the Green Party, playing for all the funding and privileges that go with that threshold, which would create a greater opportunity for progressives in local races, building for 2020. This election still has a pathway for the left to grow a solid foundation for electoral victory in the future.

As with my past articles on political math, I write this to give thought to the types of strategy a successful third-party electoral movement will need to employ in order to win for the progressive left. We need collective organizing strategies that can reach electoral goals and win local elections. Write in votes for Bernie don’t make the cut.

So what’s real here? Scrooge hasn’t fully collapsed yet. Secretary Clinton is still holding her coalition together. Libertarians in the West are almost breaking the Republican party. Greens could build a progressive stronghold in the Pacific Northwest and major cities, without hurting the national Democratic coalition. The two party duopoly is challenged— but intact.

This election is clearly in flux, and as my friend Alex put it, Hillary Clinton is currently the lesser of four evils — maybe five. The evil of a write-in vote or even a Jill Stein vote is the evil of the left engaging in individualist politics and magical thinking. Without the glue of community organizing and a strategic focus, the left will remain fractured and ineffective.

Yet if we remain organized and strategic, the progressive majority will both reach its policy goals and stay true to its fiery, moral heart. If we work together for what we want to see in 2020, our desire for an extraordinary course of events, consistently applied to collective action, will produce results.