Why form Scottish-Irish-Northern Irish Federation?
Most political changes happen because there is someone with an interest in seeing the change happen; so the idea of a Federal Republic between Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland seems like a fanciful dream.
It is. But instead of waiting for the peace on these Islands to break apart, this is a pre-emptive compromise. It is a peaceful plan to ensure the democratic wishes of a majority of citizens of Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland are all fulfilled; even though this means dissolving the United Kingdom.
The people weren’t actually asked if they would like to dissolve the United Kingdom, but in many ways the unbalanced Union has been dissolving for decades, nearly a century. And the effort to hold onto Northern Ireland has seen some of the worst atrocities committed on these Islands since the Great Famine.
A new Federal Republic would begin with far more equality than the UK. The total population of the Federation would be 11.5 million people. 45% in Scotland, 39% in the Republic of Ireland and 15% in Northern Ireland.
This would create a new state with a more balanced distribution of power. The current institutions in Holyrood and Stormont could continue to operate as they are, along with Dáil Éireann in Dublin, this would leave the three countries, as federal states, each able to seamlessly transition to part of a new Union. This Federal Republic would have a nominal GDP of approximately $588 Billion. Which would place it 21st in the world, between Saudi Arabia and Sweden and making it the 5th largest economy in the EU (after England and Wales leave).
With the current status of Ireland as an EU member, the Federation could claim right of succession to assume all responsibilities for the Republic’s current treaty obligations, meaning that the EU couldn’t refuse to recognise Scotland and Northern Ireland’s continued EU membership, within the new Federation. There would be no new negotiations for Scotland to rejoin the EU. No threats, or boycotts, Spanish fears that a peaceful breakup of the UK would encourage separatists there would be unable to block this, as international norms on successors states would automatically apply. In essence, the Republic of Ireland’s status as an EU member would extend to cover Northern Ireland and Scotland, while at the same time the Republic would pass all rights, obligations, and property on to the new Federal Republic (the other two countries have no international treaties, as these are currently decided from Westminster — and with a population of 56 million, still 82% of these Island’s population, England and Wales would have no problem continuing as the successor state to the UK) .
That means ‘embassies, monetary reserves, participation in treaties, membership in international organizations, and debts’ would automatically pass to the new state. And since these treaties include EU membership, Scotland and Northern Ireland could remain within the EU.
Combined with the fact that relative to the UK, their GDP and population would have a much larger percentage of the Federation’s total, this would give them much greater influence relative to today — and being part of a larger Federation would give each of the three countries more influence internationally than independence.
Now the primary reason for pushing this idea is one of peace. The power-sharing agreement in Holyrood is tenuous at best, and a break up of the United Kingdom — which many believe is now inevitable — will place that agreement in great jeopardy. By forming a federation, which keeps that power-sharing agreement intact, which has the opportunity to seat the new Federal government in Belfast (about half-way between Dublin and Edinburgh), and which keeps Unionist from losing the powers they have grown accustomed to, we have the potential to avert a looming crisis.
This solution would leave Northern Ireland in a better position than any of the alternatives. Independence leaves them open to civil war. Continued union with England and Wales leaves them as the smallest, poorest and least powerful part of a Union which has little interest in its former colonies. Reunification with the Republic would inevitably lead to war with the Unionists. Whereas a Union with Scotland would satisfy a huge amount of that Unionist tradition. Remaining in the EU would satisfy a large part of the Republican tradition. A perhaps most importantly, the peaceful transition of power from Westminster would satisfy the great majority of people in the middle ground.
So what is this new Federation missing? A catchy flag? A better name than SCINI? Well those might help, but really it needs a political reason to exist. It needs a constitution, and political parties from Ireland and Scotland to come together to promise Northern Ireland they will guarantee its security. And there may be very little political appetite to do just that.
It would offer some economic certainties for all three countries, as EU members. And peace in Northern Ireland is more than enough reason for me to support it. But for this to become reality? That requires a groundswell of support. To that end, if you wish to sign this petition, please do.
This solution would leave Northern Ireland in a better position than any of the alternatives. Independence leaves them open to civil war, continued union with England and Wales leaves them as the smallest, poorest and least powerful part of a Union which has little interest in it’s former colonies, reunification with the Republic would inevitable lead to war with the Unionists, however a Union with Scotland would satisfy a huge amount of that Unionist tradition. Remaining in the EU would satisfy a large part of the Republican tradition, and most importantly, the peaceful transition of power from Westminster would satisfy the great majority of people in the middle ground.
