PA Swing Voter Survey — May 2022

Memorandum

Subj: General Election Results

We conducted a survey of Pennsylvania general election swing voters that showed Doug Mastriano is a uniquely weak general election candidate.

The group of swing voters consisted of 42% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 20% independents and they preferred a Republican Governor generically by 3 points, 42% to 39%. Considering the Democratic leaning of the swing voter universe, it is a historic high for Republicans to have any generic ballot lead in this group. Its clear if the GOP nominates a strong candidate they would start as a front runner.

However, an initial ballot test between Doug Mastriano and Josh Shapiro showed Shapiro at 49% already and Mastriano struggled at 41%. This includes Mastriano losing an astounding 23% of the swing Republicans to Shapiro. This is an unsustainable number for a general election nominee for a party.

Mastriano’s image is already upside down with swing voters with only 16% having a favorable opinion of Mastriano while already 22% have an unfavorable opinion.

After voters are informed about key messages on Mastriano and Shapiro, Shapiro jumps out to a 12 point lead and Shapiro pushes over 50%.

Osage Research conducted a survey of 600 swing voters in Pennsylvania using live callers. Quotas were set for age, gender, and geographic composition to ensure the results reflected General Election swing voters.