“Impressive as the collective wisdom of financial sages is, one still wonders about 2018 or 2019. Even if Musk finds the money and people to build a lean manufacturing process for the Model 3 and derivatives, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, and many others are sure to have already deployed Model 3 competitors. GM will even start shipping a 200 mile-range e-car by the end of 2016.
This is the real threat”
I’d have agreed a few months back — before Tesla’s pre-order move.
Car manufacturers will deploy Model 3 competitors all right. But at least 400k customers have already made up their minds as to which car they will be buying over that period… whatever unit volume this specific market segment amounts to over 2017–2019, Tesla has already pre-empted a significant market share — on pre-orders only.
To me the real threat remains Tesla’s ability to deliver on target. And until then, any Model 3 competitor is going to be hard sale…