Market Update

The Augur election market contract that Catnip uses settles after January 22nd. Market expiration was set to after the Electoral College votes and after Inauguration to help ensure a valid resolution. Once the market resolves, traders will be able to redeem winning shares 1:1 for DAI on as well as on Augur Foundry.

Selling nTrump

In the meantime, we want to make it as easy as possible for traders to sell *presumptive* winning shares (nTrump) earlier, if they prefer. The price that share holders are able to sell at is a function of the open market and what buyers are willing to pay. …

The big day has arrived!

A few things to keep in mind for catnip traders on Election Day:

  1. We expect that price slippage will be unusually high on Election Night and in the interim before the election outcome is known.
  2. Users may still trade on catnip during this period but with higher slippage and greater risk of reverted transactions. Alternatively, they may trade shares from catnip on Augur’s Native UI or just hold their position until the outcome is known.
  3. Shortly after the outcome is known, early settlement will be available for users to trade in winning shares for slightly less than one DAI per share. …

A Quick Tutorial

Updated December 17, 2020

The Foundry lets you mint outcome shares in Augur markets, wrap them into ERC20 tokens, use them to provide liquidity, and settle them back into DAI.

Let’s dive in.

1. Mint Shares

Select the market from the dropdown menu that you’d like to mint shares in.

Next, plug in how much DAI worth of shares you’d like to obtain.

For example, to mint 1,000 Complete Sets, enter 1,000 DAI. If you‘re minting shares to supply to a liquidity pool, you’ll want to maintain a portion of your target liquidity in DAI.

Click “MINT SHARES” then sign the transaction with metamask. …

A Battle-tested Routine to Become a More Prolific Writer

“You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.” -James Clear

If you’re anything like me, you aspire to write more words, more often. But it’s hard.

Even though many of us are cooped up at home these days with a record amount of time on our hands, finding a writing rhythm can feel as improbable as hunting down hand sanitizer or toilet paper. News and world events scream for our attention, while the monotony of our environment makes it easy to fall into a rut.

But there’s another side of the coin. …

Coronavirus is lucky that it struck humanity before the rise of open prediction markets.

If you’re a virus and you want to spread, one of your biggest assets is not being taken seriously, fast enough. Decentralized prediction markets will soon make this harder by helping surface, signal, and hedge pandemic

In prediction markets, traders buy and sell contracts whose payout depends on real-wold outcomes. Prediction markets produce a price-equals-probability signal, where prices reflect the likelihood that events will occur.

Prediction markets shine in cases where you have disparate information spread among many actors and malincentives to suppress or distort this information. …

Trading on Augur carries three risks, right now. Risks, here, meaning cases in which you could be right but still lose money. For example, if I buy YES shares in the Giants winning a football game, and they win, it’s possible I could still come out at a loss.

Augur v2 has the potential to address all three of these risks. In fact, each of the three main contract-level innovations of v2 attempts to tackle one of these risks.

Each of these risks corresponds to a different layer of decentralization:

Currency Risk is a result of decentralization at the market trading level and is addressed by using DAI rather than ETH for trading. …

How Incentives Fuel an Open Prediction Market

Show me the incentive, and I will show you the outcome. -Charlie Munger

Augur is a game in which traders, market creators and other players seek to maximize their self interest while creating something of value for the whole.

In the game of Augur, there is no referee standing in the middle, enforcing the rules. Instead, behavior is bounded by code and driven by incentives.

Incentives are the glue that holds Augur together. They create a game that is worth playing for all its players.

Augur’s symphony of incentives drives market actors to be truthful and productive. It brings the interests of individual actors into harmony with the interests of the collective. …

Why Everything May Be About to Change…

Imagine a social network that:

1) none of your friends are on

2) where you have to pay a dollar each time you post a status update or add a friend

3) you can only pay this fee using an obscure, volatile currency that most people have never even heard of, and you must verify each payment using a browser extension and wait minutes for it to process.

Would you use such a thing?

Welcome to Augur v1.

Sure, it’s not a social network — it’s more like a liquidity network connecting buyers and sellers, rather than friends — but it’s subject to network effects nonetheless. …

2020 has the potential to be a breakthrough year for Augur and open prediction markets. Augur is well-poised to be one of DeFi’s headline success stories this year and one of the first DApps to bring non-crypto-natives to Ethereum. It’s still early days, and there will be growing pains, but I expect a big leap forward this year driven by v2 at the product level and the U.S. election cycle at the market level.

I think that predictions with no skin in the game should be taken as entertainment, nothing more. This is why in my newsletter The Augur Edge, I link to my Augur predictions and trades on the Ethereum blockchain, whenever possible. …

“Market Matters Most.” — Marc Andreessen

The 2020 election cycle is a dream market for Augur and perhaps the most powerful beachhead available to any DeFi project in the world right now to establish momentum at the dawn of this new decade. Augur is broader than political markets, but this is an opportunity to gain a foothold with perhaps the most contentious election cycle in modern history and a market underserved by existing alternatives.

But whether Augur will capture this market is far from a given and largely depends on when v2 ships. …

Ben Davidow

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