Here Is the Real Reason Livestock Farming Will Die Out
And Much Faster Than You Think
In this article, I will explain why the significant transformation of the food system that many vegans hope for will indeed come — much sooner and faster than most people would expect today. We will see a massive shift towards plant-based consumption within the next 5 to 10 years.
With growing awareness of the horrors of the animal industry, the number of vegans has already sharply increased in many countries over the last years. This was very important, and provides a necessary basis for the broad shift in consumption I am predicting for the coming years. The main reason for this shift, however, will not be people’s realization that by buying animal products they have contributed to unnecessary animal cruelty, world hunger and environmental destruction. Instead, the shift will largely be driven by price developments.
There is currently a widespread notion of veganism as a “lifestyle for the privileged”. Already today, this notion is easily debunked.
In fact, the highest consumption rates of animal products are found in the world’s richest countries and social classes
… which is well illustrated, for example, by the world map of excess meat consumption shown below. Or by a recent US poll showing that the plant-based diet is more common among people earning less than 30,000$ while being rarest among high earners.
Going vegan doesn’t cost you additional money, it will save you money. An University of Oxford study analyzing food prices from 150 countries showed that switching to a plant-based diet typically reduces food costs (by up to 30%). The researchers concluded that “vegetarian and vegan dietary patterns were generally most affordable”.
But apparently, even though vegan food is cheaper overall, this price difference is not stark enough to correct public perception and motivate a large-scale shift in consumption on economic grounds.
But it soon will. Let me explain.
For a start, plants are much more efficient to produce than animal products. And with much, I mean MUCH. Here are a few numbers and facts for illustration (just some random picks, this list could be extended indefinitely):
- You need around 100 calories of grain to produce 12 calories of chicken or 3 calories of beef.
- The world’s cattle alone consume a quantity of food equal to the caloric needs of 8.7 billion people — more than the entire world population.
- Livestock provides just 18% of calories but takes up 83% of farmland.
- If the world adopted a plant-based diet, we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares.
- On average, a vegan diet uses five times less water than a meat-based diet.
- It takes around 1,800 gallons of water to produce just one pound of beef. That is the equivalent of staying in the shower for 12 hours.
The bottom line is: Animals are an incredibly inefficient food source.
Besides presenting strong environmental arguments for a plant-based diet, these differences in resource efficiency will also soon be reflected in price differences.
While many vegan products are already relatively cheap (e.g., vegetables, fruit, pasta, rice, potatoes, bread, oats, lentils, beans), others are still often more expensive (e.g., vegan alternatives to meat, dairy, and egg products). But it won’t be long before the latter will be considerably cheaper than animal products as well.
In addition to the above points on resource efficiency, the following factors will drive this change over the next years:
- Economies of scale: As the demand for plant-based products increases, manufacturers will invest in larger-scale production, which often leads to significant cost savings (i.e., lower production costs per unit) — and ultimately to lower prices for consumers.
- Growing competition: The vegan food market is one of the world’s fastest-growing industries with a predicted annual growth rate of 18% over the next four years. A remarkable surge in demand for plant-based products has resulted in a race among businesses, including prominent industry players, vying for a share of this burgeoning market. This escalating competition has far-reaching implications on pricing dynamics. Economic principles dictate that intensified competition will inevitably exert downward pressure on prices.
- Research and development expenses: When a new product is introduced to the market, it often undergoes extensive research, development, and testing processes. These activities incur significant expenses, which the manufacturer must recover to make the venture economically viable. This means higher prices for newly introduced products — and many vegan products are relatively new to the market. Once the costs of product development have been covered by incoming revenue, manufacturers can use their improved financial position to offer more competitive pricing. This will gradually happen for a large range of vegan products.
- Commodity prices: Basic food commodities like grain, corn, and soy are likely to face rising costs due to the impacts of climate change, growing demand, and geopolitical conflicts disrupting harvests and supplies. Considering the substantial amount of grain required for producing animal products, primarily as feed (remember: you need around 100 calories of grain for 3 calories of beef), these escalating costs will continue to drive up prices for animal-derived foods. With vegan diets requiring significantly less agricultural yield to feed people directly, they will be less affected by these price shifts.
These trends will create opportunities for plant-based products to become much more economically attractive.
Once certain price thresholds have been significantly undercut, we will witness a noticeable shift towards vegan alternatives even among individuals who have not previously considered adopting a vegan lifestyle.
Sidenote: In addition to price cuts, we will also see substantial improvements in the taste, texture, and overall appeal of vegan products. 🥳
The question is not IF this large-scale shift will happen, but WHEN. There are some additional factors that could potentially impact the timeline.These are more speculative than the points above. The good thing is: They are not necessarily required for a large-scale shift. However, if they materialize…
… these factors could considerably accelerate the adoption of vegan food choices:
- Changes in subsidies and taxes: Concerns about environmental sustainability and the carbon footprint of animal agriculture may lead to changes in government policies, such as subsidies or taxes, that could influence the relative prices of plant-based versus animal products. To keep this inefficient industry alive, the EU spends nearly a fifth of its budget on subsidizing livestock farming. Also, in some EU countries, the disparity in VAT can range from as low as a 6% rate for cow’s milk to 23% for plant-based drinks. These disparities are unjustifiable, heavily distort competition in favor of animal-based products, and are not in line with climate protection goals. Many vegan companies and civil society organizations are already pressing for a change in these policies.
- Visible impacts of climate change: The increasing frequency of intense storms, floods, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires will hopefully alert more and more people to the fact that climate change is not a “hoax” but a real and existential threat to all life on earth — and that we all urgently need to adjust our consumption habits accordingly (e.g., switch to a plant-based diet to reduce carbon footprint by 75%).
- Recession / Inflation: Soaring inflation rates and a looming economic downturn may add to people’s frugality, likely making them more sensitive to price differences and price changes (e.g., vegan products becoming more affordable).
So far, so good. Now what? Should we just sit back and wait for the predicted market transformation to happen?
Certainly not.
Considering the devastating impacts of animal agriculture on animals, environment, climate, and world hunger, we cannot afford to simply wait and see. Instead, the prospect of the impending transformation should give us hope and motivate us to do our best to accelerate it. Importantly, helping this cause is not only about your footprint (i.e., minimizing the negative impacts of your consumption), but also your handprint (i.e., taking action and advocating for a plant-based future).
This article is not intended to promote over-optimism, inaction, or complacency. Actively advocating for veganism and animal rights has been and will remain essential in driving meaningful and lasting progress.
As vegans, we can contribute by living our values, sharing information, and inspiring others. Every contribution, no matter how small, can make a significant difference and help propel us towards a positive change. If possible, take action collectively by supporting and getting involved in animal rights groups and organizations. Be creative, use your strengths and bring in your skills. We are so much stronger together.
***
I write for compassion and peace. If you like my work, please help me bring more of this into the world — become my first Patreon. 🌱 https://www.patreon.com/PalaNajana
Also, if you don’t have a Medium account, subscribe via email to get notified when my next piece is out: https://medium.com/@pala_najana/subscribe
Thank you for your time. 🙏✨
