The problem is not in the process of your analysis, the problem is with the axiomatic posture of the words you use like ‘reasonably infer’.
People like you (and many people with a higher pay grade than you), using the same methodology, spun out the ‘sexed up’ dossier of WMD in Iraq. The bottom line is there needs to be a minimum threshold for facts. If you don’t meet that threshold, you can’t hand wave and try to ‘infer’ facts. That’s not intelligence, it’s soothsaying — and it’s been abused in the past.
Don’t lend credibility to soothsaying, you’re better than that.