Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia and The Second Battle of Kursk
Introduction:
On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian troops based in the Sumy Oblast in Northern Ukraine crossed over their Northern Frontiers into the Kursk Oblast in Russia. This was a daring, high-stakes, mechanized invasion of Russia by Ukraine. Almost 200,000 civilians were evacuated from the frontier regions. Russian border guards were caught unaware and many of them surrendered. This allowed Ukraine to occupy a good amount of land in the Kursk Oblast. It is important to note that this incursion has been carried out by the formal Ukrainian Ground Forces. The incursions of 2023, by contrast, were carried out by Russian dissidents fighting in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.
For the first time since World War 2, Russia saw a foreign military occupying its territory. This was a major blow for the Kremlin, as it is seen as being unable to protect its own territory. Ukraine created 200,000 refugees in a minor incursion, within 2 weeks, bringing the war to members of the Russian civilian population. President Vladimir Putin condemned the Ukrainian offensive as a “major provocation”. Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia and Deputy chairman of the Security Council, said that Moscow would not hold any negotiations with Kyiv until Ukrainian forces were entirely defeated.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Military, on August 12, announced that Ukrainian Forces had occupied nearly 1000 sq. kilometers of Russian territory. Russia was forced to divert some of its more experienced troops involved in offensives along the Donbass, in addition to the conscripts that are assigned the defence of internationally recognized Russian territory. In response to this, Kyiv destroyed pontoon bridges across the Seym River to slow down the movement of Russian troops towards the frontlines.
Kyiv’s Forces also managed to take over important places, like the gas pumping station at Sudzha and the Sudhza railway station. The pumping station was used to supply gas to Hungary and Slovakia with gas via Ukraine. In spite of the war, Ukraine was treaty-bound to allow the flow of gas uninterrupted between Russia and its EU neighbours. However, now, Kyiv could cut off gas supplies before the treaty expires by destroying the pumping station. It is possible for Ukraine to stage an attack on the pumping station and make it look like a Russian Missile Strike. It is a leverage point against Budapest, which has been pro-Russia and has stopped the flow of military aid to Ukraine via its territory.
The railway station’s capture could grant Kyiv direct access to internal Russian Railway communications and schedules, which could be used to monitor the flow of Russian Military supplies to the Donbass and the Zaporizhzhya regions, where Russian troops continue their slow but steady advance.
This incursion, however, was not without its own costs. Ukrainian Forces are under great pressure in the Donbas and this offensive takes away some of the most experienced troops. Thousands of men from 8 or more brigades are reportedly involved in the invasion. Russia also enjoys complete air advantage and can keep pummeling Ukrainian forces with fighter and drone attacks. For example, the 103rd Brigade lost several men in drone strikes. The incursion has not fazed Russia in Donbass, where its troops continue to push forward towards Pokrovsk.
What could be the reasons for Ukraine to go ahead and occupy Russian territory?
- Media coverage of the war had started to dry up. This could have eventually led to a slowdown or a complete halt on military aid from these countries, and this is something Kyiv cannot afford. With this invasion, Ukraine succeeded in bringing back media attention to the war.
- It also brought the grim reality of war and the pain it inflicts on society to the Russian civilian population. 200,000 people were forced to evacuate their homes within the first two weeks of the incursion. The pain of being uprooted from one’s home was inflicted on the Russian Civilian population who are connected to other civilians across Russia. This would raise discontent among the population.
- Another reason to invade Russia was to show its Western partners how Russia’s “Red Lines” are just guidelines that can be ignored. Until now, Western weaponry was only provided to Ukraine on the condition that they would be used only on internationally-recognized Ukrainian territory. This would open up the permission to use long range weaponry to target military installations in Russia proper.
- Creation of a new front to force the Kremlin to divert some of its troops and equipment from the Donbass to Kursk. (This was a failed attempt, as the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk continues.)
- This creates a new bargaining chip for Kyiv in future negotiations. If enough pain is inflicted on the Russian security setup, it could force the Kremlin to actually sit down for negotiations.
- This also makes the Kremlin look extremely weak and unable to protect its own people and territory.
- The incursion gives Ukraine the ability to hit the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. This would render much of Kursk and its surrounding Oblasts without any electricity. The Devil, however, lies in the details. An attack on the plant could render large parts of Norther Ukraine uninhabitable, the same way many parts of Belarus were due to the radioactive fallout from Chernobyl.
Conclusions:
Ukraine’s invasion of Russia is nothing short of a daring, ballsy move. It might also be an effort to try everything possible to bring about a quicker end to the war and to force the Russian Military to withdraw. Either way, The Military Command took a very cold and calculated decision after careful consideration. A decision like this, when the enemy does everything it can to push forward, is extremely risky. The Battle of Kursk during the Second World War was among the largest tank battles in history, and the most decisive for the Eastern Front. History might once again be written with the Second Battle of Kursk. What happens next is anyone’s guess.
