Leicester City’s Premier League Blueprint: Data Driven Transfer Strategy

With the Championship season concluding last Saturday it is already key to look at how the promoted teams can adjust next year to life in the premier league. Leicester, as champions of the division, are in a fortunate position as with their relegation last year they probably weren’t one of the weaker teams in the division that year. This means with little squad overhaul last summer the side is already poised to make the step up and survive in the top flight again.

However it is not as easy as may seem as seen with he 3 promoted sides this year who all look as if they will be relegated, 2 of them being Burnley and Sheffield United who hadn’t spent too much time outside of the Premier League before their return. This makes it key to analyse how Leicester can act and which areas they need to target in a positional and statistical aspect, to finish in in a minimum of 17th place.

Premier League Statistical Shift

In order to analyse how Leicester need to act it may be beneficial to use a statistical approach using data to analyse what areas the side may need to improve to gain stability in the Premier League. In order to calculate this the previous 5 champions of the Championship’s: Norwich, Leeds, Norwich, Fulham and Burnley key stats were taken from their promotion season and their first year in the Premier League after promotion (Burnley being extrapolated to reach a 38 game season).

This began to show the anticipated drop off in stats in which Leicester would expect to experience next season using an average % change of the five teams data between seasons.

These % changes were applied to Leicester’s stats this year to gain an idea of how their current team may line up in terms of data in the Premier League next year. However to make these stats meaningful and average was taken of the last 5 teams to finish in 17th place (Safety), using Forest from this year as they currently sit in that position (Data extrapolated to a 38 game season) to see how far Leicester are from this with the predicted numbers.

Analysing Leicester’s Premier League Readiness Through Data

Through looking at this data it was clear that there isn’t wholesale changes potentially needed at Leicester with them having higher numbers than the 17th place average in many areas. Goals, xG seem to be a real plus showing that the side could expect to not hugely struggle in front of goal next year.

They have also got a higher percentage of possession and passes completed and success rate, which is a real plus as it is key to how they look to play. However there are also areas that fall into the red and the Champions are predicted perform at a relegation level in these areas.

They seem to be predicted to concede a high level of shots on target which can be very harmful in the premier league with the clinical nature of forwards at this level. There also may be some issues with creativity as despite looking good for goal scoring they are predicted to be sub-par shot takers reducing the chances of reaching their predicted goals tally alongside low Shot Creating Actions.

There are also some areas that are par for a side in 17th place such as goals conceded and clean sheets which maybe suggest there are not major concerns on a defensive front, but this could become an issue if they are unable to limit the opponents shots on target.

Using this data and reviewing WhoScored’s statistical based ratings for the season for the Leicester squad, 4 key positions were identified as areas the Foxes could make key additions this summer to fill the gaps in their predicted data.

Positions that may need Bolstering

The first position is goalkeeper. Whilst Hermansen has had a good year there does seem to be room for improvement and a great Goalkeeper in the top flight can make a huge difference and could decrease the chance of conceding even if they struggle to limit the opponents shots on their goal. It adds a safety blanket for the rest of the summer business as they can maybe look towards more versatile options who don’t just focus upon limiting the opposition.

Harry Winks has had an excellent comeback year at the base of the Leicester midfield but they could maybe look to upgrade or provide depth here with someone who is as sound on the ball but maybe has a larger presence in defence and attack.

Dewsbury-Hall will 100% be key for Leicester also in the midfield but the final midfield spot could be another area for improvement with Ndidi for the most of his career being a mixed bag. It could be a really good location to allow the Foxes with security on the ball whilst also providing high levels of creativity to increase the shots in the final third.

The final position is a striker, who much like a goal keeper can be the difference for promoted sides. The Foxes have used Vardy the most this year and he has been excellent, with Daka and Iheanacho contributing little. The forward however may struggle with the step back up despite being Leicester’s top goal scorer, another option to replace or lessen the burden on Vardy could be big for the Foxes.

Italian Import

In the goalkeeping department it may be key for Leicester to look at someone with top level experience in European football. This is why it may be key to look at a punchy option of Michele Di Gregorio who is an Italian keeper who has been playing for Monza this year in Seria A. The 26 year old began his career in his hometown of Milan for Inter and has slowly forged a career in Italy joining his current team in 2022.

The keeper could be a great option to upgrade on Hermansen as his key stats are better in most areas despite being in a more vulnerable defence relative to the rest of the league. He concedes just 0.14 goals more a game which is not huge baring in mind he faces around 1.35 shots on target more a game.

This could be key as Leicester are expected to face more shots next year and adding Di Gregorio may mean that there won’t be a huge increase in goals conceded. He has also racked up a save percentage of 80% which is 6.6% higher than the Dane shot stopper which is impressive as he is facing more shots at a higher level.

The potential issue here would be that he may be a level above the Foxes as there are reports of talks between him and Juventus. But if the Foxes can move quick and secure his services for around 20 million, with the guarantee of first team Premier League football it would be a great signing.

Spanish Sensation

Winks has been great for Leicester this year but the jump up is huge and there may be a need to upgrade in this area or even just provide rotation for the former Spurs midfielder. The England International has been key for Leicester in possession this year but with a potential drop in this metric next year in some games it may be valuable to have a player who has varying strengths adding to the versatility of the team.

Pepelu (Jose Luis Garcia Vaya) of Valencia could be great here. The 25 year old Spaniard joined the LaLiga side in 2023 and could give Leicester real solidity in defence but also provide the first staged of attacks. In a much weaker Valencia side (League Relative) he has conceded less than 1 shot on target a game and has been part of a team that has a similar clean sheet record to Leicester. He provided 1.51 key passes and 3.38 shot creating actions which are much higher than Winks’ 0.67 and 2.24 respectively. This shows how he can aid in making the midfield more fluid and varying how it supports and provides the attack.

From a defensive point of view he has also contributed 3.38 tackles and interceptions this year which is 0.93 higher than the England International. The potential worry is his presence on the ball with him making around half the passes winks does at a lower percentage. However this is most likely due to style of play with Valencia having much less possession and needing to make more risky passes when they do as he also gets on the ball 2/3 as much as Winks. Adding Pepelu to the squad would be huge providing stability to the midfield.

The transfer becomes feasible with him being a client of Wasserman which already have multiple clients at Leicester such as, Vardy and Dewsbury-Hall and the deal could be done for around 20–25 million.

Midfield Marvel

In midfield also it is key to look for a more advanced player who can bring creativity to the midfield, reducing the reliance on Dewsbury-Hall and replacing Maddison long term who left last summer. They need a player though who isn’t a luxury and incompetent in and out of possession.

With Ndidi being a solid performer it is maybe a position where they can take a risk and maybe look to gain a player who has an upward trajectory and could be signed on a cheaper deal who has a bright future and potentially a high profit margin. This is why French Senegalese midfielder Andy Diouf of Lens could be a great option. At the close of the season he will be 21 and could be a real game changer for Leicester having made 25 Ligue 1 appearances and playing for France u23s.

Looking at the data he provides Leicester with upgrades on Ndidi in all the key areas with higher shooting numbers and creative numbers, notably over 1 more SCA a game. He also gets on the ball more having 60 touches a game and has around 1.5x more passes a game. This really compliments the other signing of Pepelu as together they make up what Winks and Ndidi have supplied this year with upgrades in attacking and creative stats.

Diouf could be a real game changer for Leicester and would be a real steal. The Foxes could gain his services for 20–30 million and could give real value with him already being names the young player of the year for the Conference League last season, at his previous club Basel. The move becomes more likely as reports in February suggested that he had a change in agent, looking for a Premier League move.

Striking Gold

In attack Vardy has been great for Leicester throughout his time there and comes off the back of another great season in the Championship as he ends as the clubs top scorer. Despite this there may be need for a long term successor and another reliable goal scorer to accompany Vardy in the squad with the England forwards not getting any younger. Daka and Iheanacho have also shared minutes this year but have failed to become regular starter or goal scorers in the Championship so it is unlikely they will catch fire next year.

Due to this Leicester may look at trying so sign Strand Larsen from Celta Vigo. The Norwegian forward has scored 12 goals this year in his 33 appearances, not far off of Vardy’s 18 in 35. Its hard to compare stats directly due to Vardy playing an average of 51 minutes per game and Larsen having 80, however this is the exact reasons why the former Groningen forward could be key playing most minutes with Vardy providing an impact from the bench if he remains at the club.

He takes a good amount of shots and has at least 1 on target a game whilst also providing near 2 shot creating actions a game. This is key as this profiles him similar to Vardy as he also has a high xG per shot and touches in the oppositions penalty area.

He also has an additional strength which could be key as he is around 4–5 inches taller than Vardy and receives more progressive passes a game, which could be key for Leicester as he can be a focal point for the attack allowing himself and others to thrive. With him arriving 2 years ago in Spain for Celta Vigo for12 million Leicester may be looking at about 20–25 million to secure the forwards services, but at just 24 years old it could be a great signing and if he gets 10–15 goals it could go a long way for the Foxes.

Final Thoughts

Overall Leicester may not be able to afford to cover all of these positions but if they were to these options would be great. Di Gregorio would be great as his quality provides a buffer for the inevitable increase in traffic toward their goal. Adding Pepelu and Diouf to the midfield allows the midfield to become more solid whilst providing an injection of creativity. This could decrease the security in possession but this may not be a real concern next year. Strand Larsen could help this too by being an outlet for possession allowing the Foxes to retain possession higher up the pitch. Overall if Leicester strengthen in these areas they will definitely be safe and could even push for a high mid table finish.