Top 10 Power-Forwards for 2017–18

Who takes the mantle of top power forward for the upcoming season?

Patrick Oxford
Aug 29, 2017 · 15 min read
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America

The power forward position seems to be at one of it’s weaker points in recent history, but that should be expected as the league is making a huge shift and this is the position seeing the most amount of change in terms of responsibilities. There is young talent at the position, and as the league figures out exactly what is needed out of the position more players should be able to find and improve in roles and others recover from injuries.

In case you missed them, make sure to also read part one, part two, and part three of this series.

Honorable mentions: Ben Simmons, Patrick Patterson, Jabari Parker

Tier 4

10. Serge Ibaka

Serge Ibaka makes this list despite the early decline in his play because he can still do the things that always made him a super role player, just not at the level that he once did. At this point Ibaka is teetering on the edge of power forward and center, but I think that he will still see the majority of his minutes alongside another big justifying his spot on this list rather than not making the list for centers.

Looking at Ibaka’s shooting numbers from last season on NBA.com, the first thing that stood out to me was him shooting 32.1% on shots considered open threes. He couldn’t hit anything whether he was being guarded or not in the 2015–16 season, but he does have one season of hitting those open threes in 2014–15 that gives me some confidence there will be a positive regression. His already non-existent free throw rate and shots at the rim have seen even more decline recently which means that if he has any chance at maintaining his slightly above average efficiency, those threes will have to continue to go in.

Defensively Ibaka looks older than he does on offense, or at least he did in his time with the Magic. Once he made it north of the border he did see an uptick in effort and general interest, but the lack of such qualities in a poor situation isn’t exactly encouraging. At his “age”, Ibaka should be seeing the peak of his defensive prowess swallowing up PnR attempts and causing havok on helpside. He did some of that in the few games he played with Toronto, so now that he will have a full training camp to learn the system there isn’t an excuse for him to see any more of a decline in his play.

Source: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America

9. LaMarcus Aldridge

LaMarcus Aldridge hasn’t lived up to the expectations that come with being a big-time signing for the San Antonio Spurs. But he also hasn’t been as bad as some think, primarily on defense. Offensively he had a noticeably worse year than the previous season, but it wasn’t all that far off from the scoring efficiency he has displayed throughout his career.

Aldridge’s first issue on offense is that he has a relatively low ceiling on his efficiency based on his playtype and shot location distribution. His most common playtype is the post-up where he ranked in only the 45th percentile at .865 PPP and representing nearly a third of his total offensive possessions. As the roll man in the PnR Aldridge only managed .942 PPP, placing him in the 34th percentile. Over 100 qualified players managed over 1 PPP as the roll man, so seeing Aldridge this far down the list on what should be a playtype he pads efficiency on isn’t encouraging for future projections. The three playtypes that Aldridge does excel in (put-backs, cuts, and transition) only make up a combined 19.8% of his offense.

Aldridge is already behind the curve spacing the floor compared to most of his peers at his position because his lack of a consist 3pt shot (or even scaring the defense into defending him out there consistently). He only produced .947 PPP on spot-ups attempts primarily because it is very hard to do any better when so many of those spot-ups are long two’s. He was slightly below his career average on midrange shots, but even getting up to those career averages won’t solve the real problem.

Defensively Aldridge was much better than I expected, primarily because of his ability to follow a defensive game-plan. He shows good discipline defending the pick-and-roll/pop, makes an effort to close out on shooters, and is competent in isolation, rating good on the former and very good on the latter two last season according to SynergySports. The only playtype you could critique defensively was as the primary defender where allowed 1 PPP, but because it was only for roughly half a possession a game, its not much of a flaw.

Source: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images North America

8. Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon didn’t have a spectacular start to last season, and a lot of that wasn’t really his fault. The Magic had no spacing and Gordon was being miscast as a perimeter player. Not to say Gordon doesn’t have some skills that are often associated with perimeter players, but rather that the stats bear out that he is much more effective with only one big next to him in a fast paced system. Once Serge Ibaka was dealt for Terrence Ross near the deadline and Gordon was moved back to the four he saw his stats surge on both sides of the ball.

Defensively Gordon saw both his steals and blocks increase with the mid-season position change, and I’d assume a training camp with him in the correct position will mean more improvement on this side of the ball. Gordon ranked at least average in most defensive playtypes according to SynergySports, but the two he struggled in weren’t ideal for him playing the four. He ranked in the 16th percentile as the PnR ball-handler big defender and in the 17th percentile defending post-ups. These two playtypes only combined for 14.4% of his total defense so that alone doesn’t disqualify him from being a good defender, they are important aspects of defense for him to focus on going forward.

On offense the obvious wart for Gordon is his shooting. He ranked in the 18th percentile scoring .785 PPP on spot-ups which were also his most common playtype at 22.2% of his offense. The previous season he was slightly better at .85 PPP, but still not what you want for over 20% of his offense. Gordon also saw his PnR ball-handler possessions triple from the prior year to last season, but his efficiency torpedoed from 1 PPP to .75 PPP, turning a strength into a weakness at least temporarily. Given his athleticism you’d hope he could be more efficient in transition, but so far he appears to be just average finishing those possessions.

The Magic should be looking to get Gordon more possessions cutting to the rim. Gordon ranked in the 99th percentile on cuts scoring 1.747 PPP, a number that will likely come down with increased volume and normal regression, but still something that should be a focus when designing the offense. To get more of those looks it will mean much better spacing than the team had for the majority of the season, but that shouldn’t be as much of an issue with some of the offseason moves the team has made.

7. Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes had a solid first season in Dallas where he showed volume scoring and the ability to get his offense without turning the ball over as well as continuing to play above average defense. He played the majority of his minutes at the four according to basketball-reference, thus his place on this list. He most certainly still has improvements to make to come close to the next tier, but the foundation for that is encouraging.

Barnes rated very good in isolations, spot-ups, and post-ups according to SynergySports, his three most common playtypes. Those isolations and post-ups were worth less than 1 PPP though, so that is his first issue. Barnes only took 35.5% of his shots at either the rim or from behind the three point line according to basketball-reference, and he doesn’t get to the free throw line nearly enough to make up for that. Shifting some isolation and post-up attempts to spot-up and cuts would likely get Barnes up to league average scoring efficiency which combined with his impressive TOV% would make him a dangerous offensive weapon.

Harrison Barnes SynergySports Defense 2016–17

Defensively Barnes performed very well last season. He proved his ability to play small-ball four by only allowing .818 PPP on post-ups which represented over 20% of his total defensive possessions. Barnes was blowing up the PnR last season rating very good to excellent in all three related playtypes, and if he can defend the PnR and the post, the Mavericks would be foolish to not continue to give him those smallball four minutes. The only playtyple he struggled with was off screen, and at under 5% of his defense it isn’t a huge flaw.


Tier 3

Source: Elsa/Getty Images North America

6. Kristaps Porzingis

Kristaps Porzingis made strides in some aspects last season and it’s hard to blame him completely for some of the regression he saw in other aspects with the amount of dysfunction he was forced to endure on the Knicks. I do have concern about Porzingis’ position going forward though. At the center he provides a lot more spacing, but at this point he hasn’t displayed the defensive rebounding required to play there. At power forward Porzingis isn’t a rebounding liability at all, but he does struggle guarding in space which can be a problem as offenses around the league focus more on creating spacing and mismatches.

Porzingis will need to improve his perimeter defense if he wants to play the power forward long-term. He ranked below the 50th percentile in spot-up, isolation, and off screen defense, not a great sign. He did perform very well as the big defender on the PnR ball-handler, but that was at the cost of hemorrhaging points to the roll man. Defense isn’t a one man job so that isn’t entirely on him, but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored.

Porzingis is unique as a result of his vast offensive capabilities, and having Derrick Rose as a point guard very rarely helps a players production or efficiency. His point guard situation doesn’t project as any better this year (arguably worse), so I don’t know how much of a leap to expect this season. He didn’t perform as well on spot-ups as I expected ranking in the 58th percentile according to SynergySports, but it was a large improvement over the previous season so that is encouraging. NBA.com only had him hitting 38.9% of his wide open threes, so improving that ceiling is important to getting Porzingis to above average efficiency.


Tier 2

5. Kevin Love

Kevin Love is a prime example of what happens to the public’s perception of a player when they take a reduced role to increase their odds of winning. Love does a lot of what is needed playing next to Lebron James, but he isn’t a perfect player and that becomes apparent when playing the Golden State Warriors. We should still recognize that Love isn’t anything close to liability against the other 28 teams in the league though, and is in fact still a very good player.

Offensively Love has the most important skill needed playing next to Lebron, the ability to hit spot-up shots. Love ranked in the 90th percentile on spot-ups last season according to SynergySports scoring 1.189 PPP. He struggled scoring from the post only ranking in the 45th percentile on over 20% of his possessions, but the prior season he was in the 83rd percentile so a positive regression wouldn’t be surprising. Love hasn’t been good finishing on rolls the last couple seasons so an improvement there would be more shocking.

Kevin Love SynergySports Defense 2016–17

Love is seen as a poor defender by the majority of the basketball community, but his SynergySports numbers paint a different picture. There are numerous possessions in which he rated well defending the PnR, and his spot-up numbers indicate he is making an effort to get out on shooters (even if the stat is volatile). He isn’t great at guarding the roll, but that is a team stat more so than others. He holds his own in the post for the most part despite dropping weight, and is still very good at finishing possessions on the defensive glass.

Source: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America

4. Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin has been playing 2nd option to Chris Paul for the majority of his career at this point, but for the first time in his prime he will be going into a season as the 1st option on his team. He has usually fared well with or without Paul, and the roster around him should help him succeed.

The Clippers offense didn’t see a drop off with Griffin on the court and Paul off according to NBAWowy, and the Clippers have to find that encouraging in terms of their playoff hopes for this season. Griffin is an above average playmaker for his position and him and DeAndre Jordan have a nice chemistry on the high low alley oop. I’d expect to see more 4/5 PnR action with 3 perimeter players spacing the floor, and if Blake wants to justify his new contract he will need to continue his excellent play in those situations after ranking in the 94th percentile as a PnR ball-handler last season according to SynergySports. It only represented 7.2% of his offense, so as the volume increases a slight drop in efficiency should be expected.

On defense Griffin rated average in one playtype (PnR ball-handler, 41st percentile, 6.6% of defensive possessions) and better than that in every other. He collects defensive rebounds at an impressive rate considering his front court partner is one of the best at doing so and doesn’t leave a whole lot for his teammates. Griffin isn’t a rim protector which does limit his positional flexibility against starting units, but he should fare well enough against 2nd units as a center when his minutes are staggered with Jordan’s.

3. Paul Millsap

Paul Millsap is often underrated by fans seeking box score stuffers, but he is a fascinating player to watch for those of us who appreciate hard work, high intelligence, and the desire to improve one’s team in any way possible. He worked his way up from underappreciated draft prospect to a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Not the first to make that journey (or even the only on this list), but the work ethic and self-confidence required to do so must be admired.

On offense Millsap struggled to score as the roll man ranking in only the 20th percentile on over 20% of his attempts according to SynergySports. The previous season he was much closer to average and playing next to Dwight Howard could have definitely been a contributing factor to that drop. He will now be playing to Nikola Jokic, a center that can not only space the floor but also create for others at an elite rate. Expect Millsap to see a spike in efficiency in multiple playtypes as Jokic gets him the easiest attempts of his career. The Nuggets as a team ranked second in scoring efficiency on cuts with the third highest % of offense in the league going to that playtype.

As already mentioned, Millsap was at one point one of the top defensive players in the league, and is arguably still in the top 10. He has great versatility, instincts, and isn’t afraid to do the dirty work. SynergySports wasn’t as rosy on Millsap’s defense, rating him excellent in only one playtype of consequence (post-ups), but that wasn’t the case the prior year. In 2016–17 he rated from average to good in most categories while the previous season he was very good in three different categories (PnR ball-handler BD, PnR roll man, and isolation). The decline could have been mostly noise, a product of playing next to Howard, or aging. I think we will get a clearer picture of his defensive impact this season with the Nuggets in need of a ton of improvement.


Tier 1

2. Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis certainly has an argument for the top spot on this list, but I think he had a great opportunity to make a playoff run last season without capitalizing. With recent news of Solomon Hill expected to miss most of next season, the little wing depth the Pelicans had is now gone. This injury is going to be a huge spacing downgrade on what was already a cramped court. Davis and DeMarcus Cousins will need to get used to operating with little to no spacing, and that won’t help Davis move up this list when Draymond Green will likely go games at a time without seeing a single double team in Golden State.

Looking at Anthony Davis’ offense, the most obvious point of improvement to me (and possibly the best way to impact his team with the current roster construction) is his playmaking. Davis has never been one to look to pass before score, but with the attention that both he and Cousins will undoubtedly be seeing means that someone is going to have a good shot with proper spacing and off-ball action. This means that Davis will have to count on the coaching staff to use this offseason to rework the playbook to leverage the gravity that he and Cousins demand.

Anthony Davis SynergySports Offense 2016–17

Davis didn’t have a weak-point offensively according to SynergySports, although I think there should be more opportunities for high efficiency cuts playing next to Cousins and vice-versa rather than trying to create for themselves. Despite some of his other flaws, Cousins is a willing passer who should have no problem feeding Davis for easy assists. Improving his 3pt% is another way Davis can make a jump, but he didn’t fare well last season and that was without any contested looks. With such little shooting on the roster, the team will be counting on Davis to make an improvement there.

Defensively Davis finally began fulfilling on his potential as the Pelicans finished with a top 10 defense. Jrue Holiday probably helped that to an extent but he missed the beginning of the season for personal reasons so only so much of the credit can be given to him. SynergySports looked very favorably on Davis’ defense, ranking him above the 55th percentile in every playtype with significant volume. Opponents were south of .9 PPP in every playtype regardless of volume, showing that he was dominant everywhere.

I think Davis has a fair chance at surpassing Green this season, but I’d like to see him earn it by way of team success before awarding him over a two-time champion in such a close race.

1. Draymond Green

There isn’t a more polarizing player in the league than Draymond Green. His talent is obvious at this point, although his methods are often questioned. What is undeniable is that he is a juggernaut on defense and a lynch-pin offensively. He makes teammates better on both sides of the ball, an extremely rare trait.

Green was ninth in the league in assists last season and while many will claim that should be discounted because of his teammates, it is still on Green to make the correct reads. With a near three assist/turnover ratio, I’d say he was successful at doing so. SynergySports wasn’t as keen on Green’s offensive contributions, but they don’t account for playmaking in their numbers. Draymond did stick to efficient playtypes with spot-up, transition, and cuts representing his three most used playtypes.

Looking at NBA.com Green struggled to hit threes that weren’t wide open last season. The year prior he was much better shooting the threes classified as open, and if he can settle in somewhere in between the two seasons (~34%) that should be adequate improvement.

Defensively Green was an absolute monster once again last season, and he has strong claim as the most impactful defensive player in recent memory. He has more versatility than someone like Dwight Howard did in his prime and doesn’t seem to have a real weakness.

Draymond Green SynergySports Defense 2016–17

Green is a Swiss army knife on defense, able to cover any hole. He has elite instincts, communication, and toughness. He has the lateral quickness to defend point guards if needed and the length to protect the rim. Some may doubt his effectiveness should he change teams, but that defense is something that will be brought every night no matter the situation.


Statistics courtesy of basketball-reference, nba.com, nbawowy, and SynergySportsTech

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Patrick Oxford

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Writer for The 94 Feet Report, Scout, Coach