Top 10 Small Forwards for 2017–18
Small-forwards feature sizeable Tier One

This week I’ll be looking at the small forwards in the league. The honorable mention list probably could have had a couple names added, and Carmelo could move up in the rankings should he be traded to Houston because of a change in role/responsibility.
Tier 3
Honorable mentions: Andrew Wiggins, Carmelo Anthony, Danilo Gallinari
10. Jae Crowder
Jae Crowder may be coming off the bench this year (I don’t think the Celtics have made it clear what direction they want to go for the starting five at this point), but he should have relatively similar value as last season. He played 32.4 minutes per game last season and it’s not hard to see how he could get pretty close to that number even coming off the bench with the level of versatility he brings on the defensive side of the ball.
Crowder isn’t going to stop Lebron James, but he will compete on every possession and take pride in doing so. Crowder excels on his rotations for spot-up shooting ranking in the 95th percentile (27.7% of his defensive possessions) last season according to Synergy. He was also very good at defending isolations, as he was in the 82nd percentile. He doesn’t do as well chasing shooters around screens (partially because of his bigger frame), allowing 1.16 points per possession and comprising 11.1% of his defensive possessions. That is a mark he should strive to improve upon with less responsibility on the other end of the court.
Offensively Crowder is much less of a sure thing, and some regression on his shooting wouldn’t be surprising. His ability to finish at the rim when he does get there gives him a solid foundation for his efficiency, but the jump in his 3pt% was the reason for his efficiency improvement. Crowder had been building his free throw rate incrementally over the years, but with less touches likely available this season an even larger portion of his scoring efficiency will be based on his ability to hit threes. If that slips, he could belong in the Honorable Mention rather than top 10.

9. Otto Porter
Otto Porter had a breakout offensive season last year, and the Wizards are going to need him to maintain those improvements in one way or another to justify his new contract.
Porter was automatic from pretty much everywhere on the court and ranked very highly in the six different play-types, which made up at least 5% of his offensive possessions each according to Synergy Sports. This included the 97th percentile in spot-up situations, the 93rd percentile in cuts, and the 95th percentile in PnR ball-handler situations (only 7.7% of his possessions). Some regression is to be expected on his shooting with him hitting over 50% from all three midrange distances, over 70% at the rim, and over 43% from beyond the arc. Those are all career highs and elite percentages. The goal should be to offset some of that regression in his shooting with more free throw attempts. He’s never been great at getting to the free throw line, but he has been better in the past than he was last season.
Defensively Porter will need to improve. Defensive Real Plus-Minus doesn’t paint him as a negative defender, but he struggled to stand out defending any play-types last season. Some of that has to do with just how bad Washington as a whole was on defense and Porter often guarding the tougher of the opponent wings, but it’s obvious the status quo won’t cut it. It’s likely that he won’t make enough of a leap defensively to move into the next tier, but he could certainly move up this tier with defensive improvement.
8. Andre Iguodala
Andre Iguodala makes this list despite his low minute ceiling because of his excellence in the role provided to him. 31.5% of his offense last season came from spotting up, where he scored 1.18 PPP and ranked in the 89th percentile according to Synergy Sports. Almost a quarter of his offense came in transition where he scored 1.21 PPP. The only other play-type making up at least 10% of his offense was off cuts where he scored 1.49 PPP, and right back up to the 89th percentile. Offensively Iguodala excels at everything the Warriors ask of him.
On the defensive end, Iguodala is a menace for wing players around the league. The 13 year veteran ranked in the 67th percentile guarding spot-ups, and while some of that is subject to noise, Iguodala earns his ranking with intelligent defensive rotations. He knows which players need to be closed out to hard and which can be left to pump fake followed by a swing pass. In isolation situations Iguodala ranked in the 82nd percentile, showing great lateral quickness even at this age.
Iguodala can expect to see some regression in his shooting, primarily on deep twos (from 16 feet to < 3pt) where he shot 54.5%. Those shots made up 13.3% of his field goal attempts, a ratio that has stayed consist throughout his Warriors tenure. Iguodala is at the age where we can expect to see some sort of decline, but because of his favorable situation it’s likely that he has at least one more year of elite (for his role) play.

7. Robert Covington
Robert Covington saw a slight decline in his offensive game last season, but his defense is where he makes his impact felt. ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus rated Covington as the most impactful defender among small-forwards at +4.32. It was the second year in a row he has been among the leaders. According to Synergy Sports Covington was in the 71st percentile defending PnR ball-handlers, allowing only .787 PPP and comprising nearly a third of his total defensive possessions. Over a quarter more of his defensive possessions came defending spot-up shooters where he was in the 82nd percentile. His defense on spot-up shooting shows how volatile of a stat it is year to year as he ranked in the 11th percentile the previous season, so some regression in that aspect wouldn’t be surprising.
Covington hasn’t had the greatest luck in playing with teammates who can create for others, but this season he should finally have at least one teammate who prioritizes setting up others in Ben Simmons barring another fluke injury. Fultz isn’t as adept a playmaker, but a player of his talent should draw attention regardless, leaving less focus on Covington. Additionally any games involving Joel Embiid don’t leave much room of the scouting report for a player like Covington, but we obviously should use pencil and not pen when projecting Embiid’s games played.
Tier 2
6. Gordon Hayward
Gordon Hayward will have a new home in Boston this year, but the transition shouldn't be a difficult one thanks to his history with Coach Brad Stevens. Hayward is a highly versatile offensive player with five different play-types making up over 5% of his offense, and he rated “Excellent” in five of those seven according to Synergy.
I do expect the Celtics to change their offense slightly to suit Hayward, upping the amount of PnR from last season when it only made up 14.6% of the team’s offense. Hayward finished in the 87th percentile in the PnR making up 28.6% of his offense, so he has a good argument to continue getting those plays run for him in Boston.
Hayward wasn’t viewed as a positive by ESPN’s RPM, but Synergy shows him in a different light. He had the league’s best rim protector behind him which certainly helped, but it’s still on Hayward to execute his part of the gameplan. He rated above the 50th percentile in every defensive play-type. He wasn’t as effective the year prior so there is some noise involved, but he will be in another strong defensive system that will give him plenty of chances to reproduce that success.
5. Paul George
Paul George is also going to be playing in a new city this year, and he has the luxury of being a clear second option in his new destination which is part of the reasoning for having him over Hayward.
George already had the play-type distribution of a secondary option last season with Off-Screen plays being his primary option at 19% of his offense according to Synergy. The Thunder offense didn’t make use of off-screen action at all last season at only 2.6% of the total offense, so there will definitely need to be some changes made to accommodate George’s strengths. George was also excellent as a PnR ball-handler last season ranking in the 92nd percentile, but I expect that to be more of a go-to this season when Russell Westbrook is on the bench. Paul George ranked in the 84th percentile on spot-ups, and that is something the Thunder offense is already designed to make use of (and badly in need of George’s shooting).
The only aspect of defense that you could argue George struggled with last season was spot-ups, but as mentioned previously it is a very volatile play-type and really just comes down to whether the opponent knocks down semi-open shots if closeouts are consistent (which isn’t always the case). He rated poorly in post-ups as well, but they made up a small portion of his defensive possessions and not something a ton of teams can take advantage of. Otherwise George was good defending the PnR (61st percentile) and very good in all other categories. His lowered responsibility offensively could also be a factor in a defensive surge this year because ability isn’t George’s issue.
It’s not likely that George or Hayward move into the next tier, although their placement in this tier is secure with additions to the tier unlikely.
Tier 1

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
At this point it is difficult to overrate Giannis Antetokounmpo because he is improving rapidly inso many aspects. He got better at everything last season and that has been the norm for his career at this point. The only possible criticism of his game at this point is 3pt shooting, and he has reportedly been putting in the work to fix that this offseason. Antetokounmpo’s versatility both offensively and defensively is unmatched at his age, and his ceiling is hard to determine. He has the tools to be both a point guard and a center and makes full use of those tools already.
On offense Antetokounmpo rated at least average in every play-type besides Off-Screen (kind of predictable) last season according to Synergy, and he does a large portion of his damage in transition (21.7% of his offense, 82nd percentile). Getting Giannis off-ball but involved in ball actions will open up more efficient possessions for him, so Malcolm Brogdon taking a step forward could be key to Giannis unlocking a new aspect to his already stellar game.
Antetokounmpo was very good guarding the spot-up last season, and even though it is volatile, his elite length probably stabilizes his rating more than most players. Defending the PnR he was much better as the big defender than as the ball defender, but that works fine because they should attempt to keep him as close to the rim as possible. He is becoming more and more of a threat altering shots, and while I suspect he may be nearing his upper threshold on blocks, it is a very high threshold.

3. Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi Leonard made a huge jump last season on offense, and if not for an clumsy closeout by Zaza Pachulia, he could have had a huge Conference Finals against the eventual champion Golden State Warriors. The Spurs wouldn’t have won even if Leonard had stayed healthy (I certainly could be wrong), but it raises questions about a possible series next postseason if the two teams meet in the Conference Finals or Semi-Finals.
Leonard’s biggest change last season from the year before was the frequency he ran the PnR. He was already efficient at doing so, but he devoted an additional 11% of his offense to the PnR. He is adept at avoiding turnovers (he only turned the ball over on 9.4% of his PnR ball-handler possessions), but some of that is because he usually looking to finish himself rather than prioritizing shot creation for his teammates. Leonard rates better than average in all categories besides off-screen, and he isn’t bad there either. Don’t expect Leonard to see much regression to his offense, as he is a legitimate shooter and scorer with an excellent work ethic.
Leonard saw a huge drop in RPM last season from the year before, and as many have broken down a large portion of that was opponents losing the ability to hit 3’s with Leonard on the bench. It isn’t something that is likely to continue, especially with Johnathon Simmons now playing in Orlando. Leonard did see a decline in multiple defensive play-types (PnR BH, Spot-up, Isolation), and while he is fully capable of a bounce back, it was likely in part due to his increased offensive load. He didn’t get a ton of help in that regard this offseason, and with Tony Parker out to begin the season and Manu Ginobili a year older he will likely have to take on an even larger burden this season.
2. Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant validated his decision from last summer with a dominating Finals performance that saw him play a vital role in defeating the Cavaliers. The arguments that he was just riding coattails on a team already destined to win it all didn’t seem to have a foundation as Durant was simply unguardable most of the time.
Offensively Durant took yet another step forward by altering his playtype distribution. His last season in OKC he spent more possessions running the PnR than any other play-type according to Synergy (19%), while this past year in GS the PnR was his 4th most used play (12.6%) behind three much more efficient play-types (Transition, Spot-up, Off-Screen). He saw jumps in efficiency in all three of those play-types to go along with the added volume confirming that the change in distribution was the correct move.
Defensively Durant made improvements as well setting career highs in DRB% and BLK% (The latter by a significant margin). Durant saw more time at the PF than he has at any time in the past and the role suited him well (next offseason he may be on that list) as he saw much more time defending the PnR as the big defender where he excelled in GS. Durant was already a good defender prior to this season, so him excelling with so much talent around him isn’t surprising and his success at the PF should only be motivation to Kerr to go small-ball more should they actually need to.
1. Lebron James
Lebron James maintains his top spot on this list despite losing to Durant and the Warriors in the Finals. Perhaps this is the season where Durant overtakes James as the top player in the league, but as of last season Lebron ranked higher in ESPN’s RPM because of his ability to create for others.
Lebron has the ability to orchestrate an entire offense and when he sits, the results show just how valuable he is when the offense falls off a cliff. The team had a 118.4 ORTG with Lebron on the court and 103.7 with him on the bench. Some of that is the lack of another primary playmaker on the roster, but carrying an offense to that level of excellence as the only primary creator is very difficult. Durant is a more efficient scorer than Lebron at this point in their careers, but not by such a large gap that it’s implausible for Lebron to finish more efficient next season.
Defensively critics claim that Lebron has lowered his effort level during the regular season, but even if that is the case he is still performing very well. Last season he ranked in the 93rd percentile defending spot-ups according to Synergy which is obviously excellent for a player exerting full effort, and Lebron is somehow achieving this at some unspecified lower effort level. His STL% and BLK% aren’t what they were in his athletic prime, but that is pretty much the norm for players making their way through their 30’s.
I don’t think Lebron would do as well as Durant has in Golden State should they hypothetically switch situations, but the same goes for Durant in Cleveland. There are legitimate arguments for both James and Durant as well as Leonard for top player this next season, and if Antetokounmpo made another huge jump it shouldn’t be a huge shock. This level of competition at one position is perhaps unprecedented in NBA history (90’s centers would be my first guess at closest competition), so we should just sit back and enjoy what the league is becoming.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-reference.com, Espn.com, and SynergySportstech.com