You’re looking at politics in a deterministic way.
ideas whittler

I’m looking at where we are now. We’ve had 36 primaries with another 21 to go. I’m using Real Clear Politics web site for numbers. They aren’t exact as their Nevada numbers haven’t been adjusted. But for the sake of having a reasonable reference point I’ll use them versus 538 or others.

We’ve gone through 36 primaries. Not counting super-delegates, Hillary has 1280 delegates to Bernie’s 1030. A nice lead of 250. There are a total of 4051 pledged delegates. There are 1741 delegates to go. What percentage does he need to win to get the magic number of 2383? He needs 77% of the 1741 to win without benefit of the super-delegates. Hillary needs 1103 of the remaining delegates, or 63% to win without benefit of needing any super-delegates. It seems likely neither will obtain their needed percentages to win without needing some super-delegates.

Using polls as a indication of trends of voters, without taking them as gospel, just as a reference of possible outcomes, Hillary is leading Bernie in NY, PA, MD and CA. No doubt Bernie will close the gap, barring any major blunders on his part. And that’s no great concern to Hillary. She doesn’t need to win by large margins. Bernie does. Bernie needs to continue winning by double digit numbers in each of the remaining primaries. Is it realistic to expect and project him to do so? Most reasonable folk would answer no. Possible? Sure. Probable? No.

Each election is dynamic, not static. They have an ebb and flow. The tides are turning back to Hillary’s favor with non caucus states with closed primaries and a more diverse electorate. I don’t see where Bernie is going to pull off miracles and rack up the needed +57% of the vote he needs in each primary. He hasn’t shown to be that consistent in doing that, nor has Hillary. A close race clearly favors Hillary.

The popular vote is relevant in that non caucus states are proportional based upon the popular vote. Her lead in delegates is reflected in her lead of 2.4 million in the popular vote. Kind of hard to toss that out as not relevant. Am sure if Bernie was ahead by that count you’d be flaunting it.

I think after the NY and April 26th primaries, which account for a third of the remaining pledged delegates, Bernie will reassess his odds, especially if he fails to win big. The odds of winning will decrease sharply if Hillary increases her delegate lead. Probability is in Hillary’s favor from here on out.

I’m sure Bernie won’t concede until after the CA primary. But he should after the April 26th primaries.