This is how Big Oil will die
Seth Miller
2.3K185

The renewables account for some 14% in the USA and 16% in Europe and 23% in China (90% of it hydro, so likely to cap rather soon), the most optimistic RES projections cannot budge this by 2020 over the 20% mark. Let’s assume, for the sake of your argument, a 100% YtY development of the installed energy base solely on RES from 2020 to 2030).

Add to this the requirement of batteries, simple electric engines and gearboxes mass production (Tesla is not a realistic example ($$$) for a paradigm shift in the migration of the consumers to electric cars; for that you have the likes of Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe). As we write all this, there are less than o.1% of the Global automotive park in the full electric category — from the billion cars roaming the Earth).

Let’s assume that all major car manufacturers will turn electric (80%) in the next 10 years; this will require a massive upscaling of the grid and literally a logarithmic scale growth of the number of charging stations, from private household, to street-based and motorways recharging stations. Add to that battery swapping stations and battery recycling facilities on a grand scale, This involves massive capital investments in the range of trillions (not that much if we put in balance the criminal and incompetent footprint of the financial industry in the current state of the global crisis, past and future).

All this manufacturing processes will need to be ‘fueled’ — still — by the Big Oil…and Gas, which will likely push the prices down and trim their costs substantially to both maintain a healthy margin and deter the inexorable march towards RES.

I honestly hope the events will prove me wrong, but however you play the numbers in a macroeconomic game, I cannot see such a dramatic shift in just 12 years. In 1969 we thought we were supposed to have a Moon-based station by 2000…….

I personally think the electric engine and the battery represent a rather simplistic stop-gap, as it would be the hVs, which come with their dark side.

I would have thought that inductive current motorways would move to the mainstream by 2020 (and this would had sorted out the charging issue), but we are nowhere close to this. I also believed the electromagnets (see the cost efficiency failure of the MAGLEV) would be given a more careful attention and optimisation.

There are many other options, but humanity moves triggered by bubbles, with anything outside of mainstream understanding swiftly marginalised and derided. Ecce homo (from a different persepctive)….

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