Labour will split with a whimper, not a bang.
A large portion of the people who were in the Labour Party will not be in it shortly.
Some will just leave and drift out of direct participation in political parties.
Some may join the Lib-Dems.
Some MPs may resign the whip and form a new group in parliament — one which may even mutate into a political party with an infrastructure of its own. If this happens, it’s possible that it would reach some kind of accommodation with the Lib-Dems. This would be an SDP MkII without the fanfare. Or the big hitters.
Who knows? One thing is certain. The Parliamentary Labour Party haven’t responded properly to the catastrophe that befell it a year ago. Their ‘coup’ was always, obviously going to fail.
Because they didn’t know this (and they should have) we’ve had to wait a further three months for opposition to the Conservatives at a moment that they’ve needed opposing more than ever. A faction that exists primarily to attack social democracy has grown stronger still while all of this has been going on. I expect more similar dithering once the result of the current leadership election is announced (as everyone now expects) in Jeremy Corbyn’s favour.
For this reason, success is hugely unlikely for any new entity led by people who are currently Labour MPs. If there is to be a new political party, it would be best not to attempt to form it out of the ashes of ‘moderate’ Labour or to accept the leadership of, or any pre-eminence for, existing Labour MPs.
With one or two obvious exceptions, they’ve been hopeless this year.
They are the vacuum that made this disaster possible.