From CubeSats to Estonian Space Program and Space Traffic Management
Sometimes it feels like time is flying faster than light — starting from September last year I can say that I have been active in the space sector for 10 years. It has been a challenge, especially when taking into account the size of space activities in Estonia. Perhaps instead it was advantageous to move fast thanks to many opportunities? It has been an exciting adventure that will continue and will get more interesting with every day. In this article I will make a short overview about my activities in space, my opinions and where I’m heading.
Everything set off in 2008 when I was one of the first students to join the first Estonian satellite, ESTCube-1, project. Back then, I was studying Mechanical Engineering and Aerospace Engineering. After a successful mission, I headed towards entrepreneurship and started Radius Space and Cubehub together with friends from the project.
Since 2016, I have been working at the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, being responsible for space policy and uptake of space technologies in Estonia. Everyone knows the European Space Week, that was developed by us during the Estonian EU presidency. Today, I’m drafting the space program for Estonia. Space law and develop a space traffic management platform have been more a side interests and topics to carry on.
What I like very much about the Estonian public sector is that experts have to cover everything in their area. Attending the European Space Agency (ESA) and European Union (EU) space program boards and committees have given a good overview how the programs work and where the sector in Europe and world is heading in the future. It is hard to focus on one specific program, but it is possible to choose what is the most relevant.
CubeSats — from where it started
Ten years ago, there were only a few people who believed in CubeSats and most of the industry was making fun of them and some do this even today… In the past years I have had many interesting discussions with arrogant representatives from space industry, who believe that CubeSats are worthless and just space debris… do not agree with that!
The CubeSats platform has created world changing startups and enabled many technology demonstration missions. Alumni’s from the ESTCube-1 project had a major impact to the Estonian space sector. Today they are leading the sector, working for tech startups in Estonia and for NewSpace startups around the globe. Other students from CubeSat projects in other countries, for example Finland and Lithuania, have shown similar positive impact.
Educational CubeSat missions teach students many technical and social skills that they would not get form the university. I would even say that today those students, who have attended a CubeSat project, are more prepared than earlier, because they have gathered more hands-on experience. This fact is also approved by entrepreneurs who like to hire students with such background. My personal experience is similar — during the ESTCube-1 project I did not learn only technical skills, it also taught me allot about project management, public speaking, time management, law, languages etc.
There have been many discussions around educational CubeSat programs and the challenge lies behind the question how to integrate it into the Estonian space program. For decision makers, the results of student programs are often too far away or not visible in near future. On the other hand, when looking into this in long term and wanting to support the industry with new talent and ideas then a CubeSat project is a cheap investment with a good return. (I think that discussing the philosophy behind a CubeSat program has material for at least an additional article.)
NewSpace economy
I think that I do not have to explain what NewSpace means. Years ago it sounded more attractive than today, because this word is often used as a buzzword to draw people to events or just added to populist speeches — we have to do more NewSpace…
In 2013, right after the launch of ESTCube-1, I started to think more about starting a business. Radius Space was the first company. We were mainly focusing on mechanical engineering and manufacturing of small satellite systems. In the end we were doing too much on subcontract manufacturing and it was nearly impossible to pivot. Later I co-founded Cubehub, a novel satellite ground stations connected to worldwide crowdsourced network. Back then the TRL level was far too low and traction was missing so we put the project on hold. Cubehub was similar what AWS and Atlas are planning today. With some pivots, I can see a good market growing there.
So at some point it would be interesting to return to the private sector and start again.
Now over the years, it has been interesting to observe the sector from a different perspective and how it has developed. Most of the so called NewSpace startups are still struggling to find real clients and make revenue. If you work in the government then you can see how the companies approach governments and try to find clients. Most of the companies are too much ahead of time or other supporting infrastructure and there is no service that governments could easily buy today. One of the solutions and main challenges is to educate government employees and other potential users from private sector about the new opportunities that exist. There is a long way to go…
In most of the cases companies are focusing only building a feature, but do not think about the big picture and their end product. End users, eg. Governments want an easy to use product with a feature which shows what is happening right now or what will happen in the future — a service that will enable fast decision making. Fast data-based decision making will be one of the topics the Estonian Space Program will focus on.
Technology development is expensive and it takes time to bring a new product to market. That is why Venture Capital and Private Public Partnerships are the key for NewSpace startups to survive the valley of death. Those startups, who use satellites to develop new data sources should be combined with existing government programs, like Copernicus, to create additional value for both. The small startups alone will be struggling to make positive cash flow because in order to develop services for end users they will need more investments. I believe that in the upcoming years we will see many consolidations.
I would say that good business opportunities are there and developing fast and small startups have to cooperate and pivot their services faster to survive. It will be interesting to follow how the technology giants will start offering right services for the end users. It looks like Amazon and Google are on the right track already.
Estonian Space Program
The main idea behind the Estonian Space Program is to add new activities that will create new value for the Estonian economy and define our long term goal in the space sector. Creating a space program in Estonia is challenging since there is no established space industry here and political interest is low. On the other hand, it is an opportunity to create something new and original.
The challenge is to explain to decision makers that space is not “kosmos” (Estonian joke :) ) and has more potential for Estonia than some hype topics that come and go. Therefore, it is necessary to find overlapping areas. Two of the most obvious ones are Estonian e-government and Estonia as a digital nation. The main focus area of the program will be government e-services. Making Estonia and humankind more efficient by using data and services from satellites. As I have mentioned during various speeches, then the data from space will enable data-based decision making and some of the examples, like replacing on-the-spot-checks on grasslands, are running in Estonia.
In my opinion, hardware related activities are important too and they will find a place in the program. We are also exploring collaboration with ESA, EU space program and other national agencies.
More about the program will be published as it develops further.
Space Traffic Management — where the world should go
Estonia has launched one educational satellite so far and several CubeSats will follow in next years. But the numbers of satellites launched is growing rapidly around the globe. NewSpace startups launching satellites to LEO are looking for options to make the bureaucratic registration process faster. Some of these startups have started to ask if it would be possible to register their satellites in Estonia. This is when I started working on space law and looking for new opportunities for Estonia. In the past months I have had many discussions with lawyers, insurance providers, politicians, satellite operators etc. and in the future I plan to share these ideas.
When I got more into the detail, then I started to see the big picture and it made me think more about sustainable space development. Every object should have the same conditions when being registered and when flying in space. The role of governments and private sector in space is changing. There should be no difference under which flag a company is launching its object.
Communications between satellite operators, countries and organizations is still from the 90s! We need a global initiative which will solve this problem. The EU is planning to start Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) activity under the new EU Space program. Also many positive and interesting developments from the United States are coming. Pooling and sharing information about SST, like open data is the key and of course we should create new additional sources for SST data.
The world needs a global Space Traffic Management (STM) system. In addition, we should focus on reducing space debris, avoid collisions and manage frequencies. Nowadays the issues are not behind missing technologies, but more behind coordination and willingness to share. I do not want to refer to anywhere, but many studies show more a lack of vision and no clear solutions for the problem. Deorbiting without a STM is too dangerous. Who will decide when is the right time to deorbit, who will be responsible for making decisions, etc?
As some of you know then I have started working on a potential solution for Space Traffic Management. In the upcoming years I will focus more on the topic of sustainable development of space and create new solutions. Maybe it will be possible to create at first a best practice that is accepted by satellite operators in the industry. The main challenge here will be not the technology, but execution and politics!
Conclusion
The ten years in the space sector have been colorful, Space is an interesting combination of technology, law, policy and politics. All the areas are connected to each other. There are no boarders in space and we all should act responsibly while using space.
NewSpace describes the development of the space sector. Governments and international organizations should adopt laws and regulations according to the change of the industry and technology.
Open data and sharing knowledge are key to success and will create a better future. Countries should work together more and private companies should have access to data to build new services on top of it. Is it the Copernicus program or SST, no country alone can create a working solution from what we all can benefit. In the end, it will lead to data-based decision making, a topic that we in Estonia are focusing on right now.
