Moodys and Canada Debt
Source — RBC Economic — https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/special-edition-keeping-an-eye-on-canadas-credit-rating/
Let’s look at GDP per capita:
2024
Ranking 18th
Value: $54,866
2015
Canada’s GDP per capita has grown 2.7%. Canada GDP growth has been led by real estate and public sector — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/importance-gdp-per-capita-paul-young-ivpgc/
I estimate that Canada’s GDP has lost at least $100B cumulative due to poor policy management of natural resources — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/what-is-next-for-fdi-foreign-direct-investment-canada-domestic-and-abroad-a7c1bc878a45
Source — https://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-capita-ranking.php or https://photius.com/rankings/2015/economy/gdp_per_capita_2015_0.html
Interest to Revenue:
Canada Debt went from $26B to $43B in 2024. Canada over all debt is $1.1B+
Canada had $1B budget surplus YTD Nov/15. Justin Trudeau turn that into $987M deficit in 4 months. Trudeau has not once balanced a budget. Trudeau’s current deficits are $30–40B with no path to balance. https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/canada-vs-australia-cc73290c5871
Australia is running a budget surplus for 2023–2024 due to LNG tax windfall while Canada is running $30–40B deficit. https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/canada-vs-australia-cc73290c5871
Moodys may have stay the course but Moody has made comment in the past about deficit and debt — https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/moody-s-maintains-canada-s-triple-a-rating-but-raises-concerns-about-house-prices-1.2061995. Canada household debt is the worse in over 40 years. So, it is hard to believe that Moody’s is not watching the debt issue — https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-housing-plan-bumping-up-against-capacity-restraints-interest-rates-economist-1.2067660
I have written many articles and blogs on tax and spending policies. I support program spending as long as it is done with value for money including achieving the desired performance. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_internal-audit-leaders-need-to-hire-more-activity-7191436487505108993-giaz?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Current Account Balance:
Moody sees a smaller account balance. Canada trade balances have been impacted by wide swings in oil production and prices — Blog — Governance — Trade — Canada vs Mexico https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/is-canada-losing-out-to-mexico-manufacturing-natural-gas-mining-and-oil-0f5b4118e4a1
Net Investment / GDP
Source — https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/canada/investment--nominal-gdp
I have written many blogs on foreign direct investment (FDI) — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/what-is-next-for-fdi-foreign-direct-investment-canada-domestic-and-abroad-a7c1bc878a45
Corporate Tax
Source — https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/global/corporate-tax-rates-by-country-2022/ or https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/canadas-uncompetitive-business-tax-rates-threaten-living-standards
I have written many articles and blogs on corporate taxation — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/subsidies-vs-corporate-tax-deductions-paul-young-ejwhc/. I am curious to understand why Moody’s did not call out the capital gain tax change and its role with attracting business investment — https://betakit.com/itif-president-wonders-whether-canada-has-the-political-will-to-fix-its-productivity-issues// Here is my article on productivity — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/currency-challenges-facing-canada-dd0d16379161
Political Stability:
Canada is a minority parliament. There is supply and support agreement that likely will stay in place until the 2025 election. Jagmeet Singh will continue to back the liberals despite their failed record.
Policy Review — Why does Jagmeet Singh support Justin Trudeau — Supply and Confidence Agreement — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/why-does-jagmeet-singh-support-justin-trudeau-03f30c9feab7
Private non-financial debt to GDP
Canada has seen a rise in personal bankruptcies — https://globalnews.ca/news/10351118/business-insolvencies-canada-2024/ or https://www.bdo.ca/insights/canada-debt-market-report-q4-2023
Canada Net Debt to GDP:
Justin Trudeau is banking that he can keep debt growth at slower pace than GDP growth — https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/federal-government-continues-to-peddle-misleading-debt-numbers. This is a dangerous game especially as Trudeau continues to introduce policies that will drive slower GDP growth — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/canada-vs-australia-cc73290c5871
Federal Development Index:
Financial development involves improvements in such functions provided by the financial systems as: (i) pooling of savings; (ii) allocating capital to productive investments; (iii) monitoring those investments; (iv) risk diversification; and (v) exchange of goods and services
Canada has one of the strongest bank sector in the world due to its regulatory rules and processes. https://gfmag.com/banking/worlds-safest-banks-2023-global-100/
Canada still has challenges with its banking sector — https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/big-questions-facing-canadas-big-banks-2024
Moody stance of holding the line on Canada’s credit rating should be view with caution. Moody like many bank raters continues to look at the fiscal gap and debt levels — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/fitch-canada-federal-budget-2024-2024-8b169973d193
Paul Young CPA CGA is a former Senior IBM Customer Success Manager that has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is also FPA SME on how best to integrate macro and micro indicators as part of the data journey for the operational, management, and regulatory reporting cycles.
Blog — Stock Market — United States — May 3, 3024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stock-market-united-states-may-3-2024-paul-young-x8rsc/?published=t
Blog — Stock Market — Canada for WE May 3 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stock-market-canada-we-may-3-2024-paul-young-glqfc/
Blog — Australia Stock Market for the WE May 3, 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australian-stock-market-we-may-3-2024-paul-young-brnyc/
Blog — Trade — Merchandise — United States — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trade-merchandise-united-states-paul-young-dbakc/?published=t
Blog — Trade — Canada — March 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trade-canada-march-2024-paul-young-ooyzc/
Blog — Trade — Merchandise — Australia — February 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trade-merchandise-australia-paul-young-470ac/
Blog — Monthly Report — Australia — April 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/monthly-report-australia-april-2024-paul-young-zhjrc/
Blog — Monthly Report — The United States — April 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/monthly-report-united-states-april-2024-paul-young-fd61c/
Blog — Monthly Report — Canada — April 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/monthly-report-canada-april-2024-paul-young-s7qmc/
Blog — How to select the best ESG solution for your /Organization — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-select-right-environmental-social-governance-solution-paul-young-83mzc/
Innovation — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/why-has-canada-failed-support-innovation-2d1178ef62f7
Blog — Stock Market — United States — April 26, 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stock-market-united-states-week-ending-april-26-2024-paul-young-3vcyc/
Blog — Stock Market — Canada — Week-Ending — April 26, 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stock-market-canada-we-april-26-2024-paul-young-dmfgc/
Blog — Stock Market Close — Australia — WE April 26 2024 — https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/australia-stock-market-close-we-april-26-2024-paul-young-qgejc/
USA and Canada
Medium — Stock Market Analysis and Commentary — WE — April 19, 2024 — https://medium.com/@paulyoung_81567/stock-market-analysis-and-commentary-we-april-19-2024-b71da6fc2a98