Human emission of CO2 over 150 years increased the global average temperature by a degree and change, and raised the sea level by 1 foot, rather than 4–5 inches (the sea has been rising for 20,000 years — just not quite this fast).
With existing technology, even increased industry will over 150 years emit a similar amount of CO2.
That would seem to mean another degree and change, another foot.
The chance to avoid that would not in and of itself be worth the cost of not using energy sources that have been developed and around which our economy revolves.
But the prediction is that it won’t be another degree and change and another foot — but 4–10 degrees and meters.
The issue is not the present but the future.
The problem is that they’ve been at this for some time — and in the past, they made several predictions, many of which contradicted each other and some of which were to have come to fruition by now but have not.
Another issue is the past. A period in the past in which the Vikings sailed the North Atlantic, reaching Newfoundland, and settled Greenland, where they maintained a colony for centuries, and enjoyed a land-based diet, before the climate shifted back, forcing them to adopt a sea-based diet, and then forcing them to abandon the colony.
During the period in which the Vikings enjoyed relative warmth in Greenland, the civilizations in the American Southwest and in Peru collapsed due to decades severe drought. One of Kenya’s largest lakes dried up.
It was at least as warm as now, for centuries, about a thousand years ago — and this did not lead to runaway warming.
And the people who predict runaway warming tried very hard to write this period out of history.
And that is why I choose, quite rationally, not to believe them.
I don’t believe liars.