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I’ve never once worn a thick wool sport coat on my birthday. Until today.

I’ve never experienced a winter as cold as the winter of 2015 in NYC — and I grew up north of Boston.

But this year I’m sure will be, and 2015 was, among the hottest years on record.

So far the predictions really haven’t worked out. And the type of weather that global warming will bring is not a consistent part of your thesis — it’s a different kind of weather, mysteriously matching the weather presently being experienced — every time.

We’ve been using fossil fuels since the 19th century. Burning fossil fuels releases CO2.

That has increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by one ten thousandth of the atmosphere.

That has produced an increase of a little more than one degree in average surface temperature.

It has been about this warm before, and there was no runaway warming.

The supply of fossil fuel can probably last another 350 years, maybe 400. So, starting in 200 years we will need to develop new fuels anyway. But until fossil fuels become scarce, relative cost won’t drive that investment.

The predictions of what global warming will produce in terms of weather patterns have been all over the map, often contradictory, and very often incorrect.

It’s not being a “denier” or “anti-science” to accept the general premise that CO2 traps heat but point out that the case that the four horsemen will come if we don’t stop using fossil fuels soon is rather thin.

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