Climate Change: Why it is important for Canada to stay below 1.5ºC limit
Earth’s average temperature has risen by 1º C since 1850 as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. According to a NASA report, most of this warming has happened in the past 35 years with 2016 being the warmest year on record — partly due to El Niño that changes weather patterns short term.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, 195 nations agreed to limit the rise in global temperatures this century “well below 2 degrees Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”. The 1.5 mark is considered to be a safer defence line against the effects of climate change.
Meeting the Paris Accord aspirational mark of 1.5 degrees is not only within the world’s best interests but it is also within Canada’s best interests in order to avoid damages in vulnerable areas like the arctic, coasts, low-lying areas, as well as adaptation challenges in the rest of Canada.
Climate change poses significant challenges for Canada’s North
According to a climate change briefing issued to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and premiers, Canada is facing a warming rate at twice the global rate. An increase of 2 degrees in average global temperatures could mean that Canada could see a change of 3 to 4 degrees. The effects of warming temperatures will be felt differently across Canadian regions, with the Arctic feeling the greatest impact.
The Arctic is the region getting hit the hardest as it is warming even faster than the rest of Canada. According to Environment Canada, since 1948, Canada’s North has been hit by an increase in temperature of 3C, while other regions like the East Coast have warmed by 1C.
Nationally-recognized climatologist, Dr. Joel Finnis from Memorial University completed a study on climate projections for the provincial government of Newfoundland encompassing the next 50 years. Finnis explains some of the concerns climate change posses to Canada’s North.
“So when you start moving to the arctic and the subarctic you have places where ice is important and people have adapted to the ice that is there. Permafrost is critical to ecosystems, human activities, and access to country foods, for example in aboriginal communities a lot of times. Those are the places that are going to feel the biggest shift, they are going to see that the ice is less dependable, it is less thick, you can’t travel, you can’t access things easily. You will find that rail roads that have been put down on places where there’s permafrost are going have problems, highways are going to have problems, to a greater degree that they have now. You’ve got a bunch concerns that you are going to start dealing with.”
(Personal communication, May 8th 2017).
About half of Canada landmass is underlaid by permafrost — ground that is frozen year round, with the majority in the Arctic Archipelago, Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut.
This year, the Northwest Territories Geological Survey, a government funded research organization, published a study that mapped the permafrost thaw across an area of 1.27 million square kilometers from the Yukon to Nunavut.
“The intensity of the changes that we’re starting to see haven’t been seen for thousands of years” Steve Kokelj, lead researcher told VICE News.
As a result of permafrost thaw, mega-slumps and canyons are opening in Canada’s Arctic. This is causing damages on infrastructures, roads and pipelines, posing greater challenges to arctic communities. The Northwest Territories Association of Communities estimates that it will cost from $250 — $420 millions to upgrade and fix buildings and infrastructure in Canada’s north.
Indigenous peoples are the most vulnerable to climate change as warming temperatures have impacts in their culture, traditions and health. For centuries, Inuit have maintained a close relationship with the nature, however unpredictable weather patterns have increased the risk of traveling on the land and some traditional routes are now unreachable. There are also increased incidences of waterborne diseases as a result of rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfalls.
Then, there is also the concern that permafrost melt reinforces climate change. When permafrost melts methane and carbon dioxide, previously stored in the ground, are released into the atmosphere, further warming the earth. In fact, methane is a worst greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency methane is 25 times more potent in trapping heat than carbon dioxide.
Warming temperatures do not simply mean warmer winters in Canada
Although southern regions of Canada are not going to experience the same magnitude in climate change impacts as the Northern Canada, there will also be other consequences. Finnis explains the kind of the climate change impacts that we can expect to see in Canada:
“If you live in any kind of exposed coast you have to worry about rise in sea levels. If you live in any place that has agriculture or forestry concerns, you have to start playing attention to pest species spreading. We have seen concrete examples with the mountain pine beetle infestation in British Columbia which appear to have very strong linkages to climate change. We can imagine that similar things could happen to crops and also to other locations from forestry where there might be other different pest species. For example, there are indications that we might have some infestations in the East Coast with spruce budworms and spruce beetles. There is also concern around ticks and Lyme disease and its all connected to the same: temperatures warm up and all of the sudden species say ‘oh I’m more comfortable here than I was before’.
(Personal communication, May 8th 2017)
Warmer temperatures expand the ranges and enhance the survival rates of spruce budworm and the mountain pine beetle. These pest infestations are usually controlled by intense cold snaps during winter but recent warmer winters have been one factor allowing the infestation to grow into B.C.’s forests and spread into Alberta. Since the 1990s, 50% of B.C.’s commercially valuable pine timber has already been lost due to the mountain pine beetle outbreak.
Climate change will also be a contributing factor for the increase in likelihood and frequency of extreme weather events in Canada like floods particularly in low-lying areas — such as the ones we’ve seen this month in Gatineau and Southern B.C. ; heatwaves and wildfires like the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires, which costed almost $9B and caused irreparable human damage.
Canada is a coastal nation, with the exception of Alberta and Saskatchewan, all Canadian provinces and territories share approximately 243,000 km of coastline. According to the Association of Canadian Port Authorities, today 6.5 million Canadians live near marine coasts, and more than $400 billion in goods are shipped annually through Canadian ports. While sea-level rise will vary significantly across Canada’s coasts in the future, it is expected that the areas experiencing rise in sea levels will also experience coastal erosion and storm-surge flooding.
Global implications: climate driven migrations and refugees
Even if Canada is not as affected by climate change as other more vulnerable areas (i.e. small island countries, low lying areas in lower latitudes), Canada does not exist in isolation.
From droughts in the East Africa region, to unusually heavy rains pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh, the climate change impacts on people, economies and environments around the world will also have repercussions for Canada.
“Places where drought is going to increase food insecurity, places where new insect pests are going to create all kinds of problems and health issues. And then you start thinking: What’s going to happen when people starts getting displaced as a consequence of climate change? What is really worrying is when you start to think about how poorly we’ve dealt with major refugee crises in recent years.” Says Finnis.
(Personal communication, May 8th 2017).
Climate displacement is becoming one of the world’s most powerful and destabilizing geopolitical forces. A new study looks at how climate change may have sparked the Syrian war that has destabilized European countries. Since 2015, Canada has welcomed 40,081 Syrian Refugees, but the UN still estimates that there are 13.5 million refugees requiring humanitarian assistance. Climate change will destabilize borders and increase humanitarian crises.
Climate change has very uneven consequences. Developing countries, the least responsible for climate change, are the ones bearing the brunt of the climate crises. This is why developed Western industrialized nations are the ones with the greatest responsibility to act.
The effects of climate change will continue to grow and scale as temperature increases in Canada and in the rest of the world. The closer we stay to the 1.5 C increase in temperature, the less challenging it will be to adapt and to mitigate. In order to keep earth’s climate from moving into unchartered and more unpredictable territories, immediate and collaborative action is needed at the national and international levels, at the local and global levels, and in all fronts: civil society, governments, private sector.
