The Urshela-Andújar Predicament Isn’t A Predicament At All

The date is December 11th, 2018. Miguel Andújar has just completed a strong rookie campaign at 3B. Since the 2012 season, the Bronx Bombers have been less than stellar at the hot corner- from an injury-riddled and disgraced A-Rod to second and third-rate players like Yangervis Solarte and Chase Headley. Finally, it seemed like the Yankees might have a solution at third. And after failing to acquire Manny Machado, it became almost a cinch that Andújar would be the third baseman of the future in the Bronx.
On that same day, little-known, career defensive replacement 3B Giovanny Urshela was placed on the reserve list of the Tigres del Licey, a Winter League club. The Yankees acquired Urshela in August from the Blue Jays, and perhaps hoped he could turn into a player similar to Adeiny Hechavarria, whom the Yankees acquired in 2018 to replace Andujar in the later innings. After all, Urshela’s biggest sample size was a 288 PA 2015 in which he accumulated an fWAR of exactly 0.0. He was invited to Spring Training in 2019 on February 1st.
Something seemingly minor happened in Tampa: Gio Urshela began to hit. He was hitting in the batting cages, hitting against live pitching, hitting in Grapefruit League games. Urshela attributed this to Scranton-Wilkes Barre hitting coach Phil Plantier, who helped him to make numerous adjustments. Even Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman took notice of Gio’s hitting. Urshela ended up hitting .321 in Spring Training- however, Boone and Cashman knew that wasn’t enough to be truly convinced.
When the injury bug hit the Yankees early in the 2019 season, Urshela was given the chance he so desperately needed. On April 1st, Miguel Andújar was placed on the 10-day IL after hurting his shoulder on a slide to third base. Five days later, Urshela was called up from AAA and finally got his chance.

Remarkably, his hitting in Tampa translated to the majors. In his first 10 games, his wRC+ was 109; in his first 20, it was 147. With Andújar having just 49 PAs in 2019 due to a torn labrum, the job was all Urshela’s. If you’re reading this, you probably know how Gio’s season went: The hits never stopped coming for Urshela. So who should be the Yanks’s third baseman for 2020?
Here’s a hint: It shouldn’t be Miguel Andújar.
To start: Andújar is an historically bad defender. In 2018, he posted a -25 DRS (as of November 1st). Yes, -25. Couple that with a -10.9 RngR (Range), -24.5 UZR/150 2018 and a -2.4 UZR in just 33 innings in 2019, and you’re looking at near complete defensive failure. Keep this in mind: Jeter’s worst season by TZ or DRS was -27. If the Yankees were to continue to put Andújar at 3B, they’re almost better off putting no defender there at all.

Some of you may be willing to accept Andújar’s defensive shortcomings if he works on it a little and keeps up his offense. However, it’s possible his 2018 offensive numbers were just a mirage. Yes, his 130 wRC+ and .361 wOBA are impressive, but Andújar’s peripherals tell a humbling story. He walked only 4.1% of the time, which is in the bottom 4% of the league. Dú’s 2018 xwOBA was .326, a full 35 points below his wOBA. With his 36.5 Hard Hit% and an xSLG nearly 100 points below his 2018 SLG, it’s very possible that Andújar would have a significant 2020 regression.
So…. how does Gio Urshela compare? For starters, his defense isn’t nearly as good as national broadcasters would like you to believe. His -4 DRS (as of November 1st) and -3.4 UZR/150 isn’t great for a third baseman…. BUT, it’s certainly better than Andújar. The only other man on the Yankee roster with significant experience at 3B, DJ LeMahieu, had just a 2 DRS and 0.8 UZR/150 in 400 innings (2019). So, the Yankees will not be at a terrible disadvantage with Urshela manning the third sack.
What really separates Gio from Andújar is his 2019 offensive performance. Sure, Urshela’s 132 wRC+ and .369 wOBA are both better than Miguel’s 2018 season, but where “The Most Happy Fella” really shines are in his peripherals. Even with a somewhat poor BB% of 5.3%, it’s better than the paltry 4.1% that Andújar put up. Urshela’s xwOBA of .353 is much better than Andújar’s, and his 40.6 Hard Hit%, .488 xSLG and .293 xBA all prove that his 2019 campaign was hardly a fluke. If Urshela experiences a 2020 regression, it’s hard to believe that it would be anything more than minor. If you want to chart it, here’s 2018 Andújar vs 2019 Urshela:
wRC+: Urshela- 132, Andújar- 130
wOBA: Urshela- .369, Andújar- .361
BB%: Urshela- 5.3%, Andújar- 4.1%
xwOBA: Urshela- .353, Andújar- .326
xSLG: Urshela- .488, Andújar- .444
xBA: Urshela- .293, Andújar- .281
Hard Hit%: Urshela- 40.6%, Andújar- 36.5%
Exit Velocity: Urshela- 90.5, Andújar- 89.2
DRS: Urshela- -4, Andújar- -25
UZR/150: Urshela- -3.4, Andújar- -24.5
BsR: Urshela- -3.1, Andújar- 1.0

Why is this even a discussion, looking at the numbers? Why should the Yankees even consider starting Andújar, barring a Greg Bird-esque Spring Training? Should the Yankees trade Andújar? Should they start him at Triple-A? There are many questions for the Yankees to answer about Andújar, but one the Yankees don’t have to ask is about the validity of Giovanny Urshela. Personally, I think the Yankees should use Andújar as a trade piece. He still has some value as a DH- starting Andújar in the field would be another unmitigated disaster- and the Yankees will need/look for another top of the line starter for 2020.
To conclude: if you’re looking for a position battle to watch come Spring Training, don’t look at third base. And if Miguel Andújar wins said battle, the Yankees will have made a critical error. Gio Urshela is New York’s third baseman of the future.
