“No one goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.”
-Yogi Berra (although it existed long before he made it famous)
Have you ever read something that claims something like “Everyone thinks retail real estate prices are going to zero. If you disagree with the crowd then you should consider investing in X.”
If you’re like me, a “contrarian;” you are unusually susceptible to false contrarianism. This is far more insidious than group think because it plays on our minds at the meta level. …
Peter Lynch famously penned the following example, but he made an ommission:
“Consider the Indians of Manhattan, who in 1626 sold all their real estate to a group of immigrants for $24 in trinkets and beads. For 362 years the Indians have been the subjects of cruel jokes because of it — but it turns out they may have made a better deal than the buyers who got the island. At 8 percent interest on $24 (note: let’s suspend our disbelief and assume they converted the trinkets to cash) compounded over all those years, the Indians would have built up…
To the value investor, his Bible firm in hand.
An ancient tome writ long ago, by wizards Dodd and Graham.
Esteemed Wells Fargo for this race; the horse that he’d bet on.
“With all the bad news now priced in, in truth what can go wrong?”
His DCF concluded, his target price locked in;
“If price goes down, I’ll never frown I’ll just buy more of them.”
To Amazon he never ventured; it’s dark and full of fear.
“I hear there’s strange and complex beasts, that hide their fangs in there.”
“Don’t eat apples” he would warn, “there’s poison deep…
On a nice summer day in June 2007, Apple released the first iPhone. At the time I was working for an online game development company and we were on our way to China…
BACKGROUND I am currently a semi-retired ex-game programmer/producer living in middle of nowhere Northern California. I love learning about things…