Start-Up, or Start-Down Creating Order out of Chaos

Phil Bird
2 min readJan 12, 2020

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Seeing the order in the chaos

In a world obsesses with start-ups and disruptive change it seems like everyone (with a laptop) has an idea.

The problem is simply this unless you are delivering a service which helps to simplify something (driving, eating, thinking, writing, washing up, finding the right cheese for the wine, or the right vegetable, or just sidelining expensive brands for sensible things with a message which aligns with your world view, .. etc.) then you’re start-up is going to be a start-down.

Simplification. What. Is. It?

The systematic process of creating order from a previously chaotic experience.

Creating an effortless experience which delivers efficiency to some aspect of existence which previously had been cluttered, inefficient, unordered, and as a result, required degree of focus or attention.

Don’t Start-Down.

It’s not enough to find something in your everyday life, which looks like a problem requiring a (start-up driven) solution.

It’s not enough to hold a belief that the world view of chaotic is aligned with yours.

You need facts. The more chaotic, i.e. inefficiency expressed in many peoples lives means, the greater the chance of success.

People talk about focus and niche. That’s all good. But make sure the problem needs solving for a lot of people; that the niche is deep enough to make your effort worthwhile. This is a simple calculation of effort versus reward; how much time and effort will it take and what are the short, medium and long term payoffs.

For example, if the problem you’re solving could help 100 people, and from your experience and research it appears the value would be £10 per person then the potential maximum payout is £1000. To keep it simple, the mobile app will cost £500 and will have no ongoing cost to support (unlikely, but why not). Now your payoff is £500.

Out of the £500, you’ll need to subtract your time (£10 per hour, 30 hours, so £300) and the marketing cost of £300. Already we’re starting-down. The cost is greater than the payout.

Coming up with a start-up is the process of articulating the chaos, framing the order and quantifying the effect of its application against the cost of delivery.

A good start with well-founded research will never be time wasted.

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Phil Bird

Digital Strategy, technology, innovation, writing and life. Blog at mrphilbird.com. Substack at philbird.substack.com