If we smash the golf statistics up against the Betfair Exchange odds, which golfers jump out as being worth backing…?
Edit: Now updated with results from The PGA Championships (19th May 2024)
The Approach
- Choose a set of golf metrics which are typically a good fit for this course/event
- Weight them, based on importance, and generate a weighted average rating for each golfer (on a 0 to 5 scale)
- Source Betfair Exchange odds (win market) for each golfer
- Rank them by rating & odds
- Identify golfers whose odds look long, relative to their weighted average rating
Limitations:
(i) This analysis covers only golfers who compete on the PGA Tour, so players who play on the LIV tour (e.g. Rahm, Koepka, DJ, Mickelson, DeChambeau etc.) or solely on the European Tour aren’t considered in this analysis. In terms of materiality, there are 4 LIV golfers (Rahm, Niemann, DeChambeau & Koepka) in the top 10 on the Betfair Exchange. There are 6 in the top 20. Not ideal, but I can live with it.
(ii) I aim to only highlight where a golfer’s rank based on Betfair Exchange odds is materially different from his rank based on how he has performed in 2023 & 2024, on a weighted basis, across the key metrics. As you move into the elite end (e.g. top 20) a difference in rank of 1 position will be a lot more meaningful than it would be at the other end of the scale (e.g. the rank outsiders at 999/1).
Which player metrics are most important for this event?
I chose these primarily based on course/event-specific insight from various blogs & podcasts.
3 — Form in the golfer’s previous 8 PGA tournaments
3 — SG total
3 — Total Driving
3 — SG: Approach
2 — SG: Off the Tee
2 — SG: Around the Green
2 — SG: Putting
2 — Driving Distance (all drives)
2 — Par 4 performance
2 — Proximity on approach from 200+ yards
2 — Putting from 10–15 feet range
1 — Scrambling
1 — Sand Save %
1 — GiR %
1 — Bogey Avoidance
1 — Par 5 performance
1 — Birdie or better %
1 — Driving Accuracy
1 — Final round performance
Which golfers does this put on our radar?
Figure 1: Who appears to be value? (max odds 299/1)
Figure 2: How do the favourites compare?
Note: Jon Rahm’s numbers are based on 2023 PGA season and his “Form” rank of 100 is artifically too low, as he has moved to LIV and his LIV performances are not factored into these calculations.
Based on this data, who would I back?
At ~5/1 Scottie Scheffler is the top player in my model and represents a win probability of ~17%. As good as he is I’d rather spread my risk and instead back the 4 golfers below each-way (covering a win probability of 12%) and then sprinkle a range of other top 20 / top 30 / top 40 bets.
Each-way
Ludvig Aberg @ 15/1 (10 places) — 3pts e/w [Loss]
Xander Schauffele @ 14/1 (10 places) — 3pts e/w [Win: +50.4 pts]
Wyndham Clark @ 50/1 (8 places) — 2pts e/w [Loss]
Stephan Jaeger @ 110/1 (10 places) 1.5 pts e/w [Loss]
Top X markets
Even allowing for the LIV golfers, these look to be good value in the Top 10, Top 20, Top 30 & Top 40 markets.
Tony Finau top 20 @ 7/2 [Win: +3.5 pts]
Russell Henley top 20 @ 100/30 [Loss]
Stephan Jaeger top 20 @ 4/1 [Loss]
Aaron Rai top 30 @ 3/1 [Loss]
Chris Gotterup top 40 @ 3/1 [Loss]
Ben Griffin top 40 @ 100/30 [Loss]
Brice Garnett top 40 @ 6/1 [Win: +6 pts]
Lucas Glover top 40 @ 2/1 [Loss]
Staking plan: For the purposes of tracking whether these tips are profitable I’ll suggest a simple staking plan of 1pt for each “top X” bet. That’s a total of 27pts. Let’s see how it pans out…
BETTING RESULTS UPDATE: Overall, based on the staking plan above, the profit was 40.9 pts on a 27pts outlay — which equates to a return on investment of 151%. Hope you got on…
