Revisiting a hypothesis — and adding new knowledge
I posted a hypothesis about the way Covid-19 spreads, on 28 April. On 27 June I posted a “revisiting”, showing how well my hypothesis had stood the test of time and additional news. My emphasis at the outset was on:
“…the perplexingly random outcomes “by geographic location” for this pandemic, and how the extreme politicization of the issue was blinding people to self-evident correlations. I concluded that “environment” plays a major role; both the natural environment, climate and seasons; and the built environment…”
Here are the seven concluding points of my 28 April essay: I have bolded the first two because I believe they stand confirmed as the most important points. …
COVID-19 Testing: the Significance of False Positives: a fascinating object lesson in statistical interpretation
I just read a fascinating exercise in harsh mathematical reality regarding COVID-19 testing, by the British Prof. Carl Heneghan. It is simple logic and yet how many people does it occur to?
There is such a thing as a “false positive” test result. An optimistic estimate is that this occurs for 0.1% of tests.
This means that if 10,000 people are tested, there will be 10 false positives.
Prof. Heneghan points out that obviously this might not matter if COVID-19 is truly rampant, and there are, say, hundreds of “true positives”. But it does matter if the overall numbers of positive results are low — if you have 20 positive test results out of 10,000 that should be understood to mean an overstatement of actual infections, of 100%. …
COVID-19: My Assessment 2 Months Ago Holds Good. Why is it taking the “experts” so long?
Two months ago I posted “COVID-19: A Pandemic Analyzed As A “System” — And some suggested strategies for the future”. In this essay, I noted the perplexingly random outcomes “by geographic location” for this pandemic, and how the extreme politicization of the issue was blinding people to self-evident correlations. I concluded that “environment” plays a major role; both the natural environment, climate and seasons; and the built environment.
What have I learned since then, that would cause me to change anything if I re-wrote my assessment? I have learned about the importance of “superspreading” events, which is something I failed to emphasize. I have learned more about environmental conditions as the pandemic has spread or increased in previously good-performing regions, which strengthens my case for indoors environments being where spread occurs. I have discovered a proponent of this hypothesis who is well ahead of myself: Maurice de Hond. …