NFL Tier List: Week 11 Edition

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson catches a contested football over Buffalo Bills CB Cam Lewis in Week 10 Jerry Holt/Star Tribune

After yet another insane week, here’s my Tier List.

I’ve been replaying Skyrim (again), so these tier lists are based on that.

TIER I: Sovngarde

These are the top two teams in each conference that have separated themselves from the rest, both in terms of record and play.

• Kansas City Chiefs (7–2) — Beat Jaguars 27–17
• The Chiefs nearly got a scare in the second half, but rebounded to beat the lowly Jags, and with this win and the Bills’ loss, they’ve reclaimed the first seed in the AFC. The bigger concern with this game is that they lost WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has been one of Patrick Mahomes’ favorite weapons. It’s unknown for how long. A positive though, is that Kadarius Toney looks great — yet another reason for Giants fans to loathe Joe Judge.
• Miami Dolphins (7–3) — Beat Browns 39–17
• The Dolphins are very much in the conversation for best team in the AFC. Some might say that Tua Tagovailoa is reliant on his receivers, and yes, great receivers do help, but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle aren’t going anywhere, and Tua has such an incredible connection with them both. He doesn’t have the explosive arm of Patrick Mahomes, but he’s accurate, intelligent, and trusts his recievers — not to mention that he’s undefeated in games that he starts and finishes.
• Minnesota Vikings (8–1) — Beat Bills 33–30
• The Minnesota Vikings are for real. 100%. They still play close — 7–0 in one score games — but this team is well coached, executed well, and plays hard. Kirk Cousins has come up in the biggest moments. This Vikings team feels different than previous years. And Justin Jefferson? He may have made the catch of the century. What a player *cries in Eagles fan*.
• Philadelphia Eagles (8–1) — Lost to Commanders 21–32
• So — the Eagles are now the first NFC East team to lose to the Commanders. They were also, oddly, the first NFC East team to beat the Commanders. Washington played well, particularly in the first half, and Eagles mistakes — dropped passes, slipping receivers, multiple bad turnovers (particularly the Quez Watkins fumble at the end of the game) — combined with bad officiating handed the Eagles their first loss of the season. The Eagles aren’t “in trouble” or “frauds”, but this is a lesson that they need to learn, especially in the turnover department.

TIER II: Moonshadow

These are the very good teams in the NFL — not elite, but there are so few elite teams it’s hard to really measure it.

• Baltimore Ravens (6–3) — BYE
• The Ravens were on their bye this week. They will return next week to host the Panthers, who are coming off a victory and a mini-bye.
• Buffalo Bills (6–3) — Lost to Vikings 30–33
• A massive shakeup in my tier list, as the Bills fall to Tier 2 for the first time this year. Josh Allen is simply not playing at the level we expected him to. He has 6 interceptions in his last 3 games, and has been the main reason why his team lost the last two games. He’s also hurt, and played hurt against the Vikings, so it’s fair to wonder when this will improve. This team might not win their division.
• Dallas Cowboys (6–3) — Lost to Packers 28–31
• I considered moving the Cowboys down a spot after blowing a 14 point fourth quarter lead to a team that lost 5 straight, but they have a game against the Vikings this week that should really test their mettle. Dak Prescott followed up a good performance against Chicago with a really bad one against Green Bay — and Mike McCarthy failed to get his revenge. Multiple coaching mistakes, Prescott’s poor play (particularly in the first half), and a horrid run defense lost the Cowboys this game. They are a good team — but they have a ways to go.
• New York Giants (7–2) — Beat Texans 24–16
• Although they won, I think this game represents part of what makes us worried about the Giants long term. They’re a good team, headed in the right direction, but they probably don’t have the horses to hang with legit contenders. This final stretch — during which they play the Vikings and 5 divisional games (Dallas once, Philly and Washington twice each) will probably decide their season.
• New York Jets (6–3) — BYE
• The Jets were on their bye this week. They will return to visit Gillette Stadium and the Patriots, who beat them in their first meeting.

TIER III: The Colored Rooms

These teams aren’t elite, but they are good squads with a chance to make some noise. Any Given Sunday, right?

• Arizona Cardinals (4–6) — Beat Rams 27–17
• Kyler Murray was out for this contest — and weirdly, the Cardinals looked better on offense. They played in rhythm, they made less mistakes, even with Colt McCoy and Trace McSorley at quarterback, who are clearly less talented than Murray. I thought that Kingsbury was the biggest issue — and don’t get me wrong, I think he still is — but Murray isn’t blameless either.
• Cincinnati Bengals (5–4) — BYE
• The Bengals were on their bye this week. They will return to visit the Steelers, who beat them Week 1 — the worst start of Joe Burrow’s career.
• Los Angeles Chargers (5–4) — Lost to 49ers 16–22
• I really don’t understand the Chargers. They looked amazing on their opening drive — and then did pretty much nothing else the rest of the game. This team is injured to hell, and this coaching staff has no idea how to utilize Justin Herbert. Herbert himself is struggling, probably for a multitude of reasons. I would not be at all shocked if this team missed the postseason.
• New England Patriots (5–4) — BYE
• The Patriots were on their bye this week. They will return to host the Jets, who they best at MetLife earlier in the year.
• San Francisco 49ers (5–4) — Beat Chargers 22–16
• The 49ers are also a really weird team from week to week, but they are a physical team with excellent offensive and defensive playmakers and great schemers in Kyle Shanahan and DeMeco Ryans. That’s a formula to bet on, and there’s a reason they’ve made the NFC Championship Game twice in the last three years.
• Seattle Seahawks (6–4) — Lost to Buccaneers 16–21
• This is probably my best call from last week. I thought the time difference, combined with Tampa’s defense being legitimately good, would hand Seattle a loss, and I think this game solidified that Seattle is not in the NFC’s top tier (PHI and MIN), or even its second tier (SF, DAL, possibly TB). They are solidly in the third tier (along with NYG) — teams that are solid, will make the postseason, but still have some ways to go to be legitimate contenders.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5–5) — Beat Seahawks 21–16
• All of a sudden, the Buccaneers seem to have found life, and with the Falcons losing to the hapless Panthers and the Saints sucking, they are firmly in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. I won’t bet against Tom Brady until he is fully retired, and that may not be for a while. He’s still got gas in the tank (but probably not at wideout).
• Tennessee Titans (6–3) — Beat Broncos 17–10
• This was such an unbelievably ugly football game. It featured a whopping 17 combined punts, and an incredible amount of pure, distilled offensive ineptitude. But this is how the Titans like to play football, and at 6–3, they must be doing something right. At 6–3, they are pretty much a shoe-in to win their division.
• Washington Commanders (5–5) — Beat Eagles 32–21

TIER V: The Evergloam

These teams are in a weird place — they aren’t good, but they certainly aren’t awful, but they’re probably not playoff contenders.

• Atlanta Falcons (4–6) — Lost to Panthers 15–25
• If there was ever a time to bench Marcus Mariota, now would probably be that time. He was downright awful in this game, but it seems like they are going to keep him in the lineup going forward. I suppose it makes sense from the perspective of the playoff hunt, but what is better? To sneak into a wildcard only to get blown out? Or to know if you have something in Desmond Ridder or not? Because Mariota is certainly not the quarterback of the future in Atlanta.
• Cleveland Browns (3–6) — Lost to Dolphins 17–39
• The Browns need to stay competitive if they want to be in the wild card hunt by the time their scumbag quarterback returns. Games like this are not it. And with games against the Bills and Buccaneers coming up, there is a very real chance that the Browns could be 3–8. That would effectively put them out of the playoff hunt, even if they won out. They are building for next year — morally compromised as that might be.
• Detroit Lions (3–6) — Beat Bears 30–31
• Here’s a crazy fact for you — if the season ended today, the Lions would hold a top 10 draft pick, but it wouldn’t be their own. It would actually be the Rams’, because the Lions had a stunning comeback victory against the Chicago Bears. Maybe this team is pulling it together somewhat? They’ve now won two straight after a five-game losing streak, and they were (briefly) in second place in the NFC North.
• Green Bay Packers (4–6) — Beat Cowboys 31–28
• After a five-game losing streak, the Packers have essentially saved their season with a big-time win over a good team. Despite being down 28–14 in the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers got his revenge against Mike McCarthy, scoring 17 unanswered points to win the game in overtime. Perhaps more importantly is that Christian Watson may have emerged as a legit receiving threat — totaling over 100 yards and three touchdowns. Watson always had the talent, but he wasn’t consistently catching balls until this game.
• Indianapolis Colts (4–5–1) — Beat Raiders 25–20
• All of a sudden, the Colts are a game out of .500. Jeff Saturday is 1–0 as a head coach. What? They did only beat the Raiders, who are really, really, really bad, but they aren’t basement level at the moment. Sam Ehlinger got benched, Matt Ryan is back, and they looked perfectly fine. Not good, but not bad. Ryan should never have been benched in the first place, and it seems like it was a weird power move by the front office (or maybe Frank Reich)?
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3–7) — Lost to Chiefs 17–27
• I know they lost the game, but the Jaguars had some real fight in them by coming back after a twenty-point deficit. Doug Pederson showed the aggressive playcalling that won the Eagles a Super Bowl in his rematch with Andy Reid, under whom he served as offensive coordinator. The Jaguars are better than their record indicates, and Trevor Lawrence is showing real signs of growth this season so far.

TIER VI: The Fields of Regret

Looking at these teams is like gazing directly into the Ark of the Covenant — it’s just bad news for everyone involved.

• Carolina Panthers (3–7) — Beat Falcons 25–15
• Temple Owls legend P.J. Walker led the Panthers to victory over the Falcons, slightly (okay mostly) helped by a great rushing attack and Marcus Mariota’s erraticism. How is this team’s run game better without Christian McCaffrey? D’Onta Foreman is playing really well this year, and I will maintain that this team has a bright future — but they need to nail their head coaching hire and the quarterback they draft.
• Chicago Bears (3–7) — Lost to Lions 30–31
• I’m a fan of Justin Fields. I really, really am. I like him, and I’m glad he’s playing well. But I think it’s really weird that he is automatically being crowned as the future in Chicago because of the last three games (all losses). He’s a difference-maker as a runner, and he’s being compared to Lamar Jackson and especially Jalen Hurts — but the difference is that Jackson and Hurts can operate functional passing offenses. Fields really can’t at this point. Again — I’m glad he’s doing well, and I think he will get better still, but this feels premature to me.
• Denver Broncos (3–6) — Lost to Titans 10–17
• Remember the ugly, ugly game that the Titans played? There was a team on that field that played even worse and even uglier. Their name is the Denver Broncos. And they absolutely suck. To make matters worse, Jerry Jeudy got injured, removing yet another offensive weapon from their arsenal (Tim Patrick and Javonte Williams were already gone not to mention several linemen). Nathaniel Hackett will be gone soon, and I don’t know what they will do about Russell Wilson. They need to keep him, but what does that look like? Who would want to coach this team?
• Houston Texans (1–7–1) — Lost to Giants 16–24
• The Texans are doing a masterful job with their tank. Barely even attempting to tackle Darius Slayton? Yep. Constantly driving into the Giants’ red zone only to turn it over or kick a field goal? You got it. Constant dumb coaching decisions and terrible personnel? One of each, please. This team is playing for one sentence: “With the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama.” Let’s hope Young (or C.J. Stroud) doesn’t get destroyed by this organization. They won’t even get prayers from Jack Easterby.
• Los Angeles Rams (3–6) — Lost to Cardinals 20–25
• Imagine taking a really bad, injury-riddled team, and starting a former XFL quarterback with two career starts (both two years ago). You don’t have to imagine it — it happened, because the Rams started John Wolford over an injured Matthew Stafford. It was just as bad as you’d think. Not only that, but the Rams have also lost reigning OPOTY WR Cooper Kupp. Is this the worst Super Bowl hangover of all time?
• New Orleans Saints (3–7) — Lost to Steelers 10–20
• When the Aints go marching in, bad things happen. The Saints are now 3–7 following their loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and are on pace for their worst record since 2005. Their roster is old, declining, and injury prone. Essentially, they are where the Eagles were in 2020 — except the Eagles had a lot of draft capital and a young quarterback waiting in the wings. The Saints traded their first round pick (currently 4th overall) to the Eagles (as well as their second-round pick in 2024), and the quarterbacks on their roster are Jameis Winston (28 years old, benched); Andy Dalton (35 years old, 4th team in 4 years); and kinda-sorta Taysom Hill (32 years old, and not really a quarterback). Not only is this team bad now, but they’ll be bad for a while due to their cap and draft situations.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (3–6) — Beat Saints 20–10
• The Steelers finally have T.J. Watt back after he suffered an injury in Week 1, which is excellent news for them. Since 2017, the Steelers are 54–34–2 (.611). They are 53–24 (.688) with Watt, and 1–10 (.091) without him. So it’s good that they have him back. This game wasn’t pretty, but it was never really close, and the Steelers won fairly easily.

TIER VII: The Deadlands

There is one team that belongs here. A team that blew it so, so, so, so badly, that they are in a tier of their own.

• Las Vegas Raiders (2–7) — Lost to Colts 20–25
• This team. This horrible, terrible, no good, very, very, VERY bad football team. Fire Josh McDaniels. Tear this whole thing down. Trade Carr, trade Adams, trade Crosby, trade Jones (if you can). This team is awful. I can’t think of a team that has underperformed compared to expectations so much, and the Broncos are in their own division. You lost to a Colts team that fired their head coach and hired a guy with a near .500 record in high school football as his only experience coaching. Tear it down. This team is an embarrassment.

PLAYOFF SEEDING AND DRAFT ORDER (WEEK 8)

At the end, I’ll give who is currently in the playoffs and who would hold the top 10 draft picks in 2023.

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8–1), NFC East
2. Minnesota Vikings (8–1), NFC North
3. Seattle Seahawks (6–4), NFC West
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5–5), NFC South
5. New York Giants (7–2), NFC East
6. Dallas Cowboys (6–3), NFC East
7. San Francisco 49ers (5–4), NFC West

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (7–2), AFC West
2. Miami Dolphins (7–3), AFC East
3. Tennessee Titans (6–3), AFC South
4. Baltimore Ravens (6–3), AFC North
5. New York Jets (6–3), AFC East
6. Buffalo Bills (6–3), AFC East
7. New England Patriots (5–4), AFC East

DRAFT ORDER

1. Houston Texans (1–7–1), AFC South
2. Las Vegas Raiders (2–7), AFC West
3. Carolina Panthers (3–7), NFC South
4. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints (3–7), NFC South)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (3–7), AFC South
6. Chicago Bears (3–7), NFC North
7. Detroit Lions (via Los Angels Rams (3–6), NFC West)
8. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos (3–6), AFC West)
9. Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns (3–6), AFC North)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (3–6), AFC North