NFL Tier List: Week 12 Edition

Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown : Amy Lemus/Getty Images

It’s Tier List time! My favorite time of the week.

Happy Thanksgiving! These tiers are based on the best Thanksgiving foods. This is fact, not opinion.

TIER I: Stuffing

These are the best teams in the NFL, and have the best chances of winning a Super Bowl, just like stuffing is heavenly and I could eat so much of it.

• Kansas City Chiefs (8–2) — Beat Chargers 30–27
• The Chiefs won a barnburner against their rival Chargers to continue to establish dominance in the AFC West. They are so clearly above all of the other teams in the AFC, and I think the conference is currently theirs to lose.
• Miami Dolphins (7–3) — BYE
• The Dolphins were on their bye this week. They will return to host to Texans, so… 8–3?
• Philadelphia Eagles (9–1) — Beat Colts 17–16
• The Eagles survived several offensive mistakes to get a comeback win over the Colts, and deal Jeff Saturday his first loss as a head coach. They were down 13–3 in the fourth quarter, but came back after two clutch drives from Jalen Hurts. The run defense looks very much improved as well — holding Jonathan Taylor to 22 carries for just 84 yards (most of which was on the first drive).

TIER II: Macaroni & Cheese

These are the very good teams in the NFL — not elite, but there are so few elite teams it’s hard to really measure it.

• Baltimore Ravens (7–3) — Beat Panthers 13–3
• The Ravens offense seemed to sputter against the Panthers, but considering they were the Panthers, it wasn’t hard to pull away. The Ravens need to be careful though — this type of performance against a better team will almost certainly result in a loss. It’s probably just a one week aberration though.
• Buffalo Bills (7–3) — Beat Browns 31–23
• The Bills snapped their two-game losing streak. A snowstorm forced them to leave Buffalo, too, so no home field advantage as this game was played in Detroit. But Josh Allen got outplayed by Jacoby Brissett for most of this game. He’s been in a real funk since the Packers game, and it will be intriguing to see if he can snap out of it down the stretch.
• Dallas Cowboys (7–3) — Beat Vikings 40–3
• If this Cowboys team shows up every week, they can beat anyone. However, I still have major questions about their week-to-week performance. This is the same team that choked a two-score lead against the Packers last week, and their quarterback has been wildly erratic this year. But this week? They handed the Vikings (maybe riding a little too high after beating the Bills) a beatdown for the ages.
• Minnesota Vikings (8–2) — Lost to Cowboys 3–40
• I’m not shocked the Cowboys put up 40 points. Their offense is capable of that. What I am shocked about is how little of a fight the Vikings put up. 3 points? At home? The Cowboys are a talented team, sure, but this was an abysmal performance.
• New York Giants (7–3) — Lost to Lions 18–31
• I figured the Giants might be due for a loss at some point, but what I didn’t consider was the injuries. The Giants could have filled a hospital wing with the players injured. Who are they missing? Their two outside cornerbacks, their starting and backup slot receivers, their tight end, left guard, and center. Evan Neal, their right tackle, was already out. They don’t have long either — they play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Wan’Dale Robinson is out for the year, and they have a tough schedule coming up.
• Tennessee Titans (7–3) — Beat Packers 27–17
• This game was never really in question. The Titans physically dominated the Packers, Aaron Rodgers played poorly, and they extended their already large lead in the AFC South. I don’t know if this team is up there with the true contenders in the AFC, but they are certain to make the playoffs, and once you’re there, anything can happen. Any given Sunday, right?

TIER III: Turkey & Gravy

These teams aren’t elite, but they are good squads with a chance to make some noise. Any Given Sunday, right?

• Cincinnati Bengals (6–4) — Beat Steelers 37–30
• Cincinnati has really gotten its offense back on track since losing Ja’Marr Chase, and obviously getting him back will make them even better. It’s weird to say this about the defending AFC champs, but they are sneaky contenders, despite probably not winning their division.
• New England Patriots (6–4) — Beat Jets 10–3
• The Patriots have a new favorite M. Jones on their team — now it’s Marcus, the rookie cornerback and returner who won this ugly, ugly game on a last second punt return. The Patriots should have won this before (Nick Folk missed 2 field goals), but I think Brandon Perna said it best about their quarterback situation — Mac Jones is the kind of quarterback who would set the record for completions without a touchdown.
• New York Jets (6–4) — Lost to Patriots 3–10
• As long as Zach Wilson is this team’s quarterback, they will not be able to do anything. They are running out of ways to hide him, especially without Breece Hall, and he is simply not a viable starter right now. Maybe something will change, but this defense and the rest of their offense is too good to waste. They need to make an aggressive change in the offseason, because Wilson has shown no signs whatsoever.
• San Francisco 49ers (6–4) — Beat Cardinals 38–10
• This game was 17–10 at half. Then the 49ers happened. When you are a physical, tough team, opponents getting worn down is very real, and that’s what happened here, with the Cardinals getting absolutely obliterated in Mexico. The 49ers are probably one of the three best teams in the NFC right now, but I’m still worried about their quarterback situation.
• Seattle Seahawks (6–4) — BYE
• The Seahawks were on their bye this week. They will return to host the Raiders, who may need a loss to reset their tank.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5–5) — BYE
• The Buccaneers were on their bye this week. They will return to visit the Browns, who are just looking to stay alive before Deshaun Rapist returns from suspension.
• Washington Commanders (6–5) — Beat Texans 23–10
• Are the Commanders legit? This team has won five out of their last six, and nearly beat the 8–2 Vikings. Taylor Heinicke has some real juice, and with the return of Chase Young from injury, this team might get better down the stretch. I’ll give Ron Rivera this — he has effectively steered this locker room away from the clown show that is the rest of this organization.

TIER IV: Cranberry Sauce

These teams are decent, solid teams, but are probably still below where they need to be for true playoff contention.

• Arizona Cardinals (4–7) — Lost to 49ers 10–38
• I still think that this team could be something, but I’m close to dropping them. They got owned by the 49ers on Monday, and while Kyler Murray was out, would that really have changed much? They are probably more dynamic, but the issues in this organization are deep-seated. Maybe I’m overrating them.
• Atlanta Falcons (5–6) — Beat Bears 27–24
• The Falcons are not dead yet after beating the spunky but very flawed Bears. Shockingly, they are only a game behind in their division, and have a very real shot at not only a wild card berth, but a playoff spot. You have to wonder though — is that really the best thing for this team? Being an easy out in the playoffs and preventing them from nabbing a top quarterback? This coaching staff is good, and their roster is improving, but they need a quarterback.
• Detroit Lions (4–6) — Beat Giants 31–18
• Don’t look now, but the Lions have won three straight, including an upset over the 7–2 Giants. They are facing a stretch now — Bills, Jaguars, Vikings — that could decide their season. I doubt they go 3–0, but 2–1 puts them at 6–7, and then things could get very interesting for Dan Campbell’s squad.
• Los Angeles Chargers (5–5) — Lost to Chiefs 27–30
• Justin Herbert is similar to Josh Allen in a number of ways, mostly positive, but one negative is that they both seem to be weirdly immune to criticism. Herbert is certainly not the only one responsible for the Chargers being disappointing this year — his team is injured, his coaches are dumb as rocks — but he has thrown two game-ending interceptions in back-to-back weeks. I think Herbert is an amazing quarterback, but something needs to change here. I would imagine it will (and should) be Staley and Lombardi.

TIER V: Sweet Potatoes

These teams are in a weird place — they aren’t good, but they certainly aren’t awful, but they’re probably not playoff contenders.

• Chicago Bears (3–8) — Lost to Bears 24–27
• As said in the Falcons blurb, “spunky but very flawed” perfectly describes this Bears team. Justin Fields is electric and explosive, but this team’s lack of a passing game (the result of both Fields being unpolished and the team’s best receiver being Chase Claypool) is holding them back. Hopefully they treat Fields like the Bills and Eagles treated Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts — get them a great wideout, a good line, and help them develop.
• Cleveland Browns (3–7) — Lost to Browns 23–31
• The Browns’ mission? Stay afloat until Captain Massage Rape returns from suspension. Their status? Several holes in the hull. Water is rushing in. Even against a weakened Bills squad, the Browns could not put this away, and with a game against a Tampa Bay team starting to gel, they might be in a 3–8 hole by the time Watson returns.
• Green Bay Packers (4–7) — Lost to Titans 17–27
• It certainly looks like the Packers’ win over the Cowboys was a fluke, possibly on both ends. The Cowboys went on to destroy the Vikings, thus helping the Packers. The Packers did not help themselves however, and got bullied by Mike Vrabel all Thursday Night. This team is really bad, and Aaron Rodgers is at the core. They have a game against the Eagles next, before facing the Bears, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions. Going 3–3 in that stretch isn’t crazy, but even that is a 7–10 season.
• Indianapolis Colts (4–6–1) — Lost to Eagles 16–17
• I’ll give the Colts credit — they play hard, and their defensive line is rather good. But their offensive line is Swiss Cheese, their quarterback is close to fully cooked, their wide receivers are not great, and their run game got shut down by the Eagles’ run defense. They have a number of hard games left on the schedule, including the Cowboys, Vikings, and Giants (if they get healthy by then).
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3–7) — BYE
• The Jaguars were on their bye this week. They return to face the Ravens the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
• New Orleans Saints (4–7) — Beat Rams 27–20
• Ugh, come on Saints! Preserve the tank! Howie commands it! In all seriousness, Andy Dalton played rather well, and the Saints managed to beat a team whose future prospects might be even worse than their own — except the Rams managed to get a Super Bowl out of it. Given the Saints’ division, though, it’s not impossible…

TIER VI: Green Bean Cassarole

Looking at these teams is like gazing directly into the Ark of the Covenant — it’s just bad news for everyone involved.

• Carolina Panthers (3–8) — Lost to Ravens 3–13
• Oof. Even with a poor Baltimore performance, the Panthers couldn’t get this done. Baker Mayfield was in at quarterback, but will now be out (again), as Sam Darnold will be starting for this team next week against Denver, in what may be one of the worst games ever played. Temple Owls legend P.J. Walker would have won this game.
• Denver Broncos (3–7) — Lost to Raiders 16–22
• The Broncos are so bad. Russell Wilson still has fewer touchdowns than bathrooms in his Denver mansion, and they simply cannot function on offense whatsoever. And if they get into the red zone? Total breakdown. It seems more and more like Denver sold their soul to win Super Bowl 50. Next week gives us the legendary matchup of Broncos at Panthers? Wow!

• Houston Texans (1–8–1) — Lost to Commanders 10–23
• With the awful Raiders beating the terrible Broncos, the Texans are the ultimate winners, as they are now two games ahead in the race for the number one overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Bryce Young is only two states away, and soon enough, I imagine that he will be a Texan. May God have mercy on his soul.
• Las Vegas Raiders (3–7) — Beat Broncos 22–16
• Someone had to win this game. The Raiders succeeded, with Josh McDaniels getting his “revenge” against his former team. The Raiders messed up though, because if the season ended today, they’d be picking fourth, behind the Texans, Panthers, and Bears. The first two will draft quarterbacks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears traded down with a QB-needy team below them.
• Los Angeles Rams (3–7) — Lost to Saints 20–27
• Can you think of a worse defending Super Bowl champion? How many defending champs had their seasons effectively over before Thanksgiving? The Rams’ strategy of “trade away all our draft picks, hit on the few we have, and use a ‘stars and scrubs’ roster philosophy” did win them a Super Bowl, but this is more than a hangover — and a Bloody Mary won’t help at all. This team may be years away from contention, and I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that Aaron Donald could retire after this year.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (3–7) — Lost to Bengals 30–37
• Even when the Steelers’ offense scores 30 points, they still can’t win the game. They certainly showed some fight, but ultimately came up short against their rival Bengals. However, this season isn’t about winning — it’s about Kenny Pickett, and I think Pickett had maybe his best game as a pro against the Bengals. Good signs in Pittsburgh. All that’s left to do is fire Matt Canada.

PLAYOFF SEEDING AND DRAFT ORDER (WEEK 8)

At the end, I’ll give who is currently in the playoffs and who would hold the top 10 draft picks in 2023.

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (9–1), NFC East
2. Minnesota Vikings (8–2), NFC North
3. Seattle Seahawks (6–4), NFC West
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5–5), NFC South
5. Dallas Cowboys (7–3), NFC East
6. New York Giants (7–3), NFC East
7. San Francisco 49ers (6 –4), NFC West

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (8–2), AFC West
2. Miami Dolphins (7–3), AFC East
3. Tennessee Titans (7–3), AFC South
4. Baltimore Ravens (7–3), AFC North
5. Buffalo Bills (6–3), AFC East
6. New England Patriots (5–4), AFC East
7. New York Jets (6–3), AFC East

DRAFT ORDER

1. Houston Texans (1–8–1), AFC South
2. Carolina Panthers (3–8), NFC South
3. Chicago Bears (3–8), NFC North
4. Las Vegas Raiders (3–7), AFC West
5. Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos (3–7), AFC West)
6. Detroit Lions (via Los Angels Rams (3–7), NFC West)
7. Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns (3–7), AFC North)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (3–7), AFC North
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (3–7), AFC South
10. Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints (4–7), NFC South)