Reviewing my 2023 NFL Sabermetric Based Predictions
Prior to the 2023–24 NFL season, I developed algorithms that I used to predict the outcomes of the NFL Season. By the end of this week, I will use different algorithms to predict the outcomes of the 2024 NFL season. Before I do so, I would like to review the methodology that I used last year, what worked and what did not.
Methodology
Last year, I used three year trend data and weighed it against each individual team’s schedule. This allowed me to determine who I believed would make the playoffs. I used different predictive analytics for the playoffs.
Overall, approximately over 70% of my picks were correct, including predicting 10 out of 14 playoff teams and the Super Bowl winner by the exact number of points. For teams with rookie quarterbacks, I used averages to determine the number of touchdowns they would throw for. For second and third year quarterbacks, I used growth projections based on their previous years.
Below, I am going to divide my picks into one’s that I got completely wrong; one’s where I was wrong, but may have been right; accurate predictions that may have just been luck; and projections that were absolutely correct.
Where I was wrong
My four worst predictions surrounded the Giants, Saints, Chargers, and Texans. I predicted the Saints, Giants and Chargers to make the playoffs, which obviously did not happen and that the Texans would be the twelfth best team in the AFC. These were totally inaccurate assessments.
What I got wrong, but may have been right
Trevor Lawrence was set to have a breakout season, lead the team to the second best record in the AFC as well as a potential championship, and have an MVP season. The Jaguars were 8–3 with the second best record in the AFC when Trevor Lawrence got injured. He played the rest of the season injured and the Jaguars slipped out of playoff contention. While I do not believe that he would have won an MVP or led the team to the championship, the second best record in the AFC was in reach.
Prior to the season, the analytics suggested that the Jets would have the best record in the AFC and lose in the AFC championship game at home if Aaron Rodgers was halfway in between the player he was in the previous two seasons.
Where I may have been lucky
Last year my luckiest prediction was the following: if Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence got injured, then the Kansas City Chiefs would defeat either the 49ers or Eagles in the Super Bowl by 3 points. Every single one of those things happened. I am chalking it up as luck or coincidence unless I can do something similar two years in a row.
Correct and Accurate Predictions
5 of my 7 NFC playoff picks were correct: Cowboys; Eagles; Lions; 49ers; and Rams.
The Atlanta Falcons would not make the playoffs.
The Minnesota Vikings would have a losing record.
The Panthers, Cardinals, and Commanders would be the worst teams in the
After the Aaron Rodgers injury, the algorithms predicted that the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins would make the playoffs.
The Chiefs would only win 10–11 games during the regular season and would struggle during the regular season.
The New England Patriots would be among the two worst teams in the AFC.