Don’t Forget About Dre

People continue to overlook Andre Drummond. His skill-set and production will go a long way in bringing the Pistons back to the playoffs.

Lewis Pipkin
Jul 20, 2017 · 5 min read
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America

We’re entering the 4th season of the Stan Van Gundy era in Detroit. So far we have seen two losing seasons for Stan as a head coach and only one winning season that culminated in getting swept in the first round against the Cavaliers (although, a couple of those games could have gone either way). Stan has made some positive changes so far:

  • Waived Josh Smith
  • Traded a package centered around Kyle Singler for a disgruntled Reggie Jackson (this was the trade that landed Enes Kanter in OKC)
  • Acquired Marcus Morris and, earlier this month, flipped him to Boston for a season of Avery Bradley’s excellent defense and 3-point shooting (and at a great price- only $8.8 million)
  • Brought in Tobias Harris
  • And just this offseason, he drafted chronic bucket-getter Luke Kennard and avoided overpaying for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

These are good moves, but we haven’t seen Detroit make any great moves. When was the last time we heard Detroit come up as a possible destination for a marquee free agent? (I can’t answer that, as extensive searches on Twitter didn’t yield much.) The signings that the Pistons made this offseason (Langston Galloway, Reggie Bullock, and Anthony Tolliver, to name a few) don’t exactly move them into contender territory — although, in this era, that’s becoming more and more difficult.

But, will this season be the first since 2008 that the Pistons win a playoff series? It depends on a number of things like potential match-ups, but for the most part, the fate of the Detroit Pistons rests squarely on one man’s ridiculously hairy shoulders.


Coming out of his only season of college basketball, Andre Drummond was a solid player for legendary coach Jim Calhoun’s final season at Connecticut. Drummond averaged 10 points, 7.6 rebounds (3.35 offensive), and 2.67 blocks per game as he started most of the season. Drummond was seen as a project — his struggles at the free throw line were well-documented already as he shot an abysmal 29.5% from the line on 2.6 attempts per game. He had a variety of concerns, including his offensive ability and dedication to the game.

Drummond, however, is an exceptional talent at rebounding, especially on the offensive glass, and isn’t half-bad at scoring off of those rebounds either. In the 2016–2017 season, Drummond averaged 4.4 second-chance points per game, which accounted for 32% of his total points. Furthermore, 3.5 of his points per game are from putbacks, making him the third best putback scorer in the league last season.

That isn’t surprising, considering Drummond was the league leader in offensive rebounds and total rebounds (he was third in defensive rebounds to DeAndre Jordan and Hassan Whiteside).

We’ve seen him develop more offensively and he’s gotten better in the post, with 3 of his 13.6 points per game this season coming from there.

Drummond’s rebounding and boxing out help his team, as well. Detroit was 4th in rebounds per game last season with 45.7 per game, and 8th in offensive rebounding at 11.1 per game. This leads to more points; the correlation between offensive rebounding and second chance points is around 0.95. As we all know, correlation does not equal causation, but here we can kind of let that go — how, other than offensive rebounding, can someone get second-chance points? Detroit also allows the fewest second chance points, only 10.1 per game, which is presumably aided by their rebounding in some way (although, at the team level, total and defensive rebounding are essentially uncorrelated with opponent second chance points).

It’s not all good for the Pistons, however — Drummond has a -6.7 net rating, and I don’t really need to talk about his free throw shooting. And, when I was doing an analysis for an article I wrote earlier this month, I found that Drummond was overpaid by over $2.4 million based on his performance.

While his game is certainly not impervious to criticism, it’s hard to say that Andre Drummond isn’t a good player. He’s been an All-Star and All-NBA third team before. If you want your team to win, he shouldn’t be your first option, or probably even second, but he’s a rebounding and putback machine; if given the space to operate without such a large load offensively, he can push a team over the edge. (Imagine him on the Cavs in place of Tristan Thompson.)


Now, of course, Detroit’s success is not solely dependent on Drummond. While Reggie Jackson’s name came up in trade rumors, as of right now it seems he will remain as the starting point guard this season. He needs to return to his 2016 form to give the team a fighting chance in the playoffs, because while Ish Smith is a fair backup, he is not a starter on a team that could win a playoff series. Tobias Harris is a good, fairly efficient scorer (although I’d like to see his 3-point shooting improve a bit). It remains to be seen who will start in place of Marcus Morris at the 3 (if I had to guess, Stanley Johnson), but Avery Bradley is an upgrade over Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Luckily for Detroit, they are not in the stacked Western Conference. Detroit was the 10 seed last season, and a few teams in front of them have gotten much worse, especially Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana. Philadelphia is gaining on Detroit quickly, though, and Charlotte will be better this year as well. If Miami is the same team they were in the second half of last season, they’re a shoo-in for the playoffs. Cleveland, Boston, Washington, and Toronto will all be good again, and the Bucks will look to take another step forward.

Detroit is in a good position to compete, but it is hard to imagine they will crack the top 4 and get home court advantage in the playoffs. Home court advantage aside, if Detroit has a match-up with any of Miami, Toronto or Washington in the playoffs, they will have a chance. It’s definitely possible for them to finish above .500 this season. Last season, being just two games over .500 gave the Hawks the 5th seed. This would likely give Detroit a match-up with one of those three teams. Avoiding a bottom seed and an inevitable match-up with LeBron’s Cavaliers or the Celtics is Detroit’s roadmap to success.

All in all, Drummond and his Pistons have a good shot at a successful season. His offensive game is developing slowly but surely, and his rebounding and ability to pounce on putback opportunities make him a pain for opposing big men. While the Eastern Conference Finals are likely out of reach, a playoff series victory is certainly within reach when you have a capable center like Drummond on your side, free throw shooting be damned.


All statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com. All salary figures courtesy of Spotrac. All video courtesy of NBA.com.

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Lewis Pipkin

Written by

Emory ’17, UTK MSBA ’18. Ball is life.

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