2018 Week 1 NFL Picks

Phillip Clayton
Sep 6, 2018 · 4 min read

ATLANTA FALCONS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
PHI -1

The Eagles’ defense were the heroes of last season’s 15–10 playoffs win over the Falcons. It might take Nick Foles until next week in Tampa to get on track, but Doug Pederson should have some offensive wrinkles to keep Atlanta’s defense off-balance.

Philadelphia 26, Atlanta 21

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Pit -4

The Steelers will increase James Conner’s usage regardless of if or when LeVeon Bell shows up. They will not need a great running game this week against a Browns team that is still in disarray.

Pittsburgh 34, Cleveland 10

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
IND -3

It is unusual for end-of-preseason opponents to face off again in Week 1 of the regular season, but here we are. It’s a rivalry now. How many games can Andrew Luck win by himself this year? The Bengals will come out energized to prove this isn’t another year of futility.

Cincinnati 27, Indianapolis 24

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
MIN -6.5

There should be an improvement on Jimmy Garoppolo’s TD to INT ratio of 7/5 from last season now that he’s had time to learn Kyle Shanahan’s playbook. Kirk Cousins is uncertain to repeat last year’s 4,000 passing yards
in the Vikings’ more conservative offense.

San Francisco 28, Minnesota 27

BUFFALO BILLS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
BAL -7.5

Nathan Peterman is starting this game for the Bills because it was considered unfair for Josh Allen to start before he’s ready. Especially in a tough road game against the re-stocked Ravens.

Baltimore 34, Buffalo 6

TENNESSEE TITANS at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Ten -1.5

It’s hard to be enthused about either of these teams — it’s fair to expect a low-scoring game with lots of rushing attempts. There may be a learning curve for Mike Vrabel as head coach.

Miami 13, Tennessee 9

HOUSTON TEXANS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
NE -6.5

Bill Belichick knows that the Patriots defense will give up yardage to Deshaun Watson (294 passing yards per game in the last 5 games before he got injured in 2017) but will try to limit the touchdowns. Tom Brady will need to spread the ball around.

New England 31, Houston 23

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at NEW YORK GIANTS
Jac -3

It is likely that the Jaguars are not as good and the Giants are not as bad as they were last year. Giving the edge here to Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars’ defense. One subplot of this game is Odell Beckham Jr.’s
return and matchup against Jalen Ramsey.

Jacksonville 24, New York 20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Tampa Bay might be far behind in the NFC South by the time Jameis Winston returns. The Saints should control this game with Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara getting plenty of first downs, long drives, and points.

New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 20

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
LAC -3.5

Kansas City swept the series against LA last year, but the Chargers won 6 out of their last 7 games of the season. Expecting Joey Bosa and the Chargers defense to be disruptive enough to help the Chargers to a win.

Los Angeles 27, Kansas City 21

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at DENVER BRONCOS
DEN -3

The Denver Broncos averaged 18 points a game last season. Demaryius Thomas playing in that offense is like Mario Andretti driving a Toyota minivan. Pete Carroll has been enthusiastic about the Seahawks’ younger defense this preseason and they still have Russell Wilson.

Seattle 24, Denver 13

DALLAS COWBOYS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
CAR -3

There’s a chance that Carolina’s offense will improve with Norv Turner as offensive coordinator. The Panthers’ defense is still solid — a significant challenge for a young Cowboys team.

Carolina 20, Dallas 13

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
ARI -1

Washington has invested many recent draft picks in the defense and it is starting to pay off. They also seem more comfortable with Alex Smith running the offense.

Washington 27, Arizona 23

CHICAGO BEARS at GREEN BAY PACKERS
GB -7.5

It’s fair to expect improvement from the Bears this year, but it’s hard to see them keeping up with Aaron Rodgers in the Packers’ home opener.

Green Bay 30, Chicago 17

NEW YORK JETS at DETROIT LIONS
DET -6.5

Todd Bowles is a good head coach who has not had much of a Jets roster to work with. Matt Stafford and the Lions’ receivers should put up enough points to carry the Lions to a win.

Detroit 20, New York 10

LOS ANGELES RAMS at OAKLAND RAIDERS

Last year’s Rams were 11–5 while the Raiders went 6–10. The Rams are the more focused and efficient team starting out in 2018.

Los Angeles 34, Oakland 16