Democrats Have Crossed the Rubicon: Biden Needs to Go
Democrats turned on Biden suddenly, and in numbers, removing the last incentive for them to pretend he is OK
That was quite a debate, and a severe blow to Biden and the Democrats. Here are some strategic observations about what may come next.
The floodgates are suddenly open
Now that calls for Biden’s replacement from Democrats are widespread and semi-public, there is no going back. He was weak to start with, as anyone with eyes could already see how feeble he is. Now he is further weakened by constant leaks of internal Democratic discussions about his capacity, and he will almost certainly lose if he does not withdraw.
By weakening Biden with sudden criticism, the Dems have crossed the Rubicon, and they can never return to the narrative that he’s still competent and merely fumbles his words from time to time.
As of this morning, few Democrats have stood up publicly to say he should withdraw. But many anonymous leaks and off-the-record comments show that many Dems are now pushing for his ouster behind the scenes. Even during the debate, political analysts and reporters were receiving furious texts from influential, un-named Democrats saying Biden needed to go.
These influential pols (whoever they may be) have shifted their calculus, and now think that the risks of attacking Biden are lower.
Let’s look at how Democrats must be thinking this morning.
Three scenarios — each with a risk
It is important to understand that any Democrat is considering three courses of action, each with a risk.
- Toe the line; support Biden. In this approach, all Democrats close ranks around Biden, support him, and try to shield him from public events. Biden’s low profile keeps Trump’s divisive nature, mendacity, and dishonesty as the main focus. Biden stays semi-hidden long enough to eek out a victory over Trump in November, saving the Republic. As we saw last night, this is very risky: you can’t hide a president effectively.
- Break from Democrats and turn on Biden. A brave or foolish (or both) Democrat could turn on Biden even as everyone else supports him. This may hand the election to Trump because it weakens Biden without pushing him out, and also ends that Democrat’s political career.
- Somehow coordinate a massive revolt where ALL Dems turn on Biden. That’s what we are seeing, starting today. The goal is a new, electable candidate chosen at the Democratic Convention after Biden withdraws. Multiple, anonymous comments, amplified by Democratic-friendly media, have created a public narrative anyone can join. And must.
The risks of Biden running and losing now outweigh the risks of criticizing him
Every sensible Democrat has been torn between working for Biden or working against him, as above. Until the disastrous debate, it seemed best to support him, and hope to somehow push him, however badly doddering, across the finish line to win over Trump, who after all is a tyrant.
Make no mistake, an old Biden who delegates and naps is better than an energetic Trump who actively works to undermine democracy.
But the calculus for each individual Democrat is now different. The risk of Biden staying in the race are far greater, and the risk of following a growing heard by saying he should drop are far lower.
I predict he’ll wait a little while to see if he can do damage control, or if the story fades, but then Biden will realize it is futile and shift his focus to finding a suitable successor to endorse.
Once that is lined up, he will announce his intention to withdraw and let the Democratic Convention delegates choose a new candidate, ideally his anointed successor.
