New troubles in the Balkans
There is a long and bloody history between Serbs and Muslims in the Balkans. Latest chapter was closed in 1999 when,after an accelerating spiral of violence turned into an ethnic cleansing of the Kosovo Albanians, NATO bombed Serbia into submission and subsequently Kosovo declared independence. A move Serbia has never approved.
NATO peacekeeping operation KFOR managed to largely pacify Kosovo, but ethnic tensions run high. Independent Kosovo has also been accused of harboring Islamist extremists and smugglers of all varieties.
After a relatively peaceful period several of the hot spots in the region have been flaring up. Already in may 2015 There were firefights in Macedonia, where several members of an ethnic Albanian militia linked to Kosovo were killed by the Macedonian special forces.
Later on Russia has been reforging it links to the Slavic factions in the region. They have been training with Serbian military and even donated Mig-29 fighter jets and other equipment to the Serbs.
Mercenaries linked to Russia also attempted to stage a coup in Montenegro and Bosnian Serbs of the Republika Sprska have been very provocative lately. Pro-Russian paramilitary “Cossack” chapters are popping up around the region.
Latest escalation came from Serbia as they prepared to send a train into the, ethnically Serbian, north Kosovo without consent from the Pristina government. Unsurprisingly Kosovo Security Force informed Serbia that the train would be stopped at the border and refused entry to Kosovo.
Serbian authorities released a statement that they stopped the train well within Serbian territory, as KSF had allegedly mined the tracks or prepared to blow the tracks with explosives. It is highly doubtful that the KSF, that still has some oversight by NATO, would commit an act of war against a civilian train.
Day later Kosovo’s President Hashim Thaci claimed that Serbia was attempting to incite violence within Kosovo. He alleged that Serbia was preparing to mimic the Russian annexation of Crimea and take the northern Kosovo with unmarked troops to “protect the 50 000 Serbs living there”.
Unlike Crimea, Kosovo still has roughly 4000 peacekeepers from NATO countries, including troops from the US Army 28th Infantry Division. Annexation of territory would pose an extremely difficult dilemma to the NATO command. Either accept failure at maintaining territorial integrity of Kosovo, or militarily confront Serbian forces backed by Russia.
If Serbia really has plans to annex parts of Kosovo, they would not do it without full knowledge, support and even encouragement by their Russian allies. It’s very likely that President Trumps first European test will happen in the Balkans.
My previous piece on the Balkans:
