simon rothman I do certainly agree that the number of startups that buy unsustainable growth was crazy, I do agree, that profitability should be the base for healthy growth, and business models should be build with profitability in mind, as startups bleeding investors money to grow are in majority doomed. I am only surprised that this could last so long…
However, the battle is definitely not won for Uber. Moreover this is not a battle of Uber vs. Lyft, but rather Uber vs. Future.
Why?
The biggest threat to Uber is the imminent advent of self driving cars. Sooner or later, and I would bet on “sooner”, someone will use them as a self driving cabs. Some would say, that Uber will be this “someone”, but I believe this could be the biggest challenge for Uber ever.
Self driving cabs will change the model of car ownership forever, if we could get a car for 10 cents a mile, and have it ready in a minute - how many people would REALLY buy a car? At least in urban areas not so many. This will force automotive companies to change the business model, go away from selling cars, to pay per use model. Otherwise if they just deliver a fleet for Uber, they would take a greatest risk in history — switch from millions of customers to one, that could and probably over time would say “bye”. The future might not be Uber, but a GM / Mercedes / Toyota / Tesla branded pay-per-use services. Can Uber do that without these companies? Not exactly, Uber lacks manufacturing capabilities to do that.
The big question for Uber could be what value it could bring for a company like Ford / GM / Toyota, when they decide to switch to pay-per-use model or just add it as an alternative to purchase. Userbase will not be this value, because Uber users are not loyal to the brand, they are loyal to the best combination of price/waiting time available. On technology side Uber is not rocket science, so this will not be the real value too, at least not at the $62 billion valuation.
Does it mean that the game is already lost for Uber?
No, this only means that Travis Kalanick will have to show some true mastery and brilliant ideas to prevail in the years to come.
