2020 Week 1 POTW — We Made It
I am in genuine disbelief. At time of writing, we’re a little more than 24 hours from the start of the 2020 season with the Chiefs and Texans set to begin the season on-time. Looking back at where we were in late July — the league had just officially cancelled preseason games, and meaningful players were opting out of the season — I thought it was unlikely the full season would be played and near impossible for it to start on time. But (thankfully) here we are, and what a joy it is to be here making picks on a full slate of games this weekend. No one knows how long it will last, especially with clubs just now breaking camp and players going back to their normal lives, but we’ll enjoy it while we can.
This season will be unlike any season before it and hopefully we won’t ever see a season under the same circumstances again. Every year there is a feeling-out process for teams, but this year that’ll be exacerbated more than ever. There are so many unknowns this year that both bettors and oddsmakers haven’t figured out because we’ve never seen anything like this before. Just to name a few:
Will reduced preseason and training camp work lead a spike in injuries?
During the lockout-shortened season in 2011, after an agreement was reached players were went through an abbreviated training camp and into competitive games under a compressed timeline, there was a 400% increase in season-ending soft tissue injuries compared to prior years. So far we’ve already seen Gerald McCoy and Von Miller go down with season ending injuries, both on what were described as “freak accidents”. Will these injuries continue to compound and affect rosters through the first few weeks of the season?
How much does home-field advantage matter this year?
Although this advantage had been fading over time, it was once believed that if you had a matchup of two equally competitive teams, you could assign a 3 point edge to the home team simply for being at home. While evidence exists that this edge has been declining the last few years, the variance of fans in the stands this year brings the whole equation into question. The Chiefs will play on Thursday with their stadium at about 20% capacity, but most teams will open the season in front of empty seats. Road teams will still travel and be staying on
Will any team have their season derailed by a Covid outbreak?
The biggest unknown is how teams and the league will manage to play a full schedule in a bubble-less environment. MLB tried it and almost immediately had to start postponing games. At one point the St. Louis Cardinals had 14 straight games across 4 series postponed because of their inability to contain an outbreak. Because teams can play everyday, it’s easier to postpone and makeup baseball games, but the NFL doesn’t have that same luxury. I remain skeptical that the league will be able to avoid an outbreak entirely, at which point we’ll need to watch the required adjustments closely.
Taking all that into account, my guidance is to treat every game in the first 4 weeks like the London games. Scoring is likely to be down as offenses fine tune timing and positioning, coaches are learning more about their personnel and how to create or hide mismatches, and players will still getting their legs under themselves, similar to effects of jetlag with the London games. Any bets on these early games should likely be half units — we can learn from the action over the first few weeks and save that capital for bets which we have more conviction (and information) on.
Week 1 POTW
Last season’s record: 25–14 (64.1%)
This season: 0–0
Seattle -1.5 @ Atlanta
Love this one as soon as I saw it. Each team is effectively coming into this season with the same personnel as the ended last season. Atlanta’s additions of Hayden Hurst and Todd Gurley are almost exact offsets for their losses of Austin Hooper and Devante Freeman. Seattle’s biggest loss appears to be… Jadaveon Clowney? This is a matchup of two teams who should maintain the same identity that they’ve had the last few years, and I like Seattle’s identity much more than Atlanta’s. Expect a big game from Russ.
Washington +6.5 vs. Philadelphia
I have very little faith in Carson Wentz. I don’t like him as a franchise cornerstone (gets hurt too much) and don’t think he’s efficient enough as a QB to win with poor skill players. The Eagles’ starting WRs are Alshon Jeffrey (Philly tried to trade him away last week), Jalen Raegor (rookie that’s been hurt all offseason) and DeSean Jackson (sure). Zack Ertz and Miles Sanders are NFL-quality talents, but that won’t be enough. Washington definitely has their own problems, and it remains to be seen if Dwayne Haskins will make any meaningful leap after a very disappointing rookie season. This game should be close, thanks to a Washington front 7 that includes Chase Young and a bunch of other first rounders. I’d take the points here, and even Washington outright if you can get odds around +225.
Detroit -3.5 vs. Chicago
Go back in time to Week 9 of last year, to a time when Matt Stafford was putting up MVP-caliber numbers despite having no chance of winning the MVP for a team with a 3–4–1 record. Stafford was on pace for a 5000-yard season, nearly 40 TDs, a blistering 8.6 YPA — 20% higher than his career average, a career in which he spent almost entirely with Calvin Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are the real deal, and another year in the same passing unit should do wonders for Stafford, especially if TJ Hockensen can live up to even a fraction of the hype heading into this season. The Lions still don’t have a run game, but that’s ok because the Bears still don’t have a quarterback. Detroit should be a 6.5+ point favorites in this one.
